Kuo: Apple has cut iPhone 16 orders by ~10M units for Q4 2024 and H1 2025, mostly non-Pro models, and plans 8.6M iPhone SE 4 units from December 2024 to Q1 2025
- iPhone 16 orders were cut by around 10M units for 4Q24-1H25, with most of the cuts affecting non-Pro models.
The planned SE 4 build marks a change from Kuo’s earlier report that Apple might postpone or cancel SE 4 mass production amid weak demand for lower-priced iPhones. Together, the reports make Apple’s lower-end volume planning the central issue rather than the flagship launch alone.
First-order effects
Apple’s iPhone 16 supply-chain orders would be lower through the reported planning window, with makers of components and assembly services tied to non-Pro models most directly exposed.
Apple is simultaneously planning an 8.6 million-unit SE 4 production run from December through Q1, giving its lower-priced lineup a new planned source of volume.
Second-order effects
A reduced non-Pro build plan can push Apple and its suppliers to manage inventories and capacity more cautiously, while shifting near-term attention toward the mix between existing standard models and the SE 4.
Rivals targeting price-sensitive smartphone buyers may read the move as evidence that demand at lower price tiers remains less predictable than premium demand, though the reported SE 4 plan complicates any simple retreat from that segment.
Third-order effects
If repeated across cycles, these adjustments would reinforce a more segmented iPhone strategy: protect higher-end models while using a lower-cost SE line as a more tightly controlled volume lever.
The pattern also points to supply chains that must absorb faster model-level revisions, making demand forecasting and flexible capacity more important than headline handset volumes alone.
The trend: Apple’s reported order changes fit a broader shift toward tighter, model-by-model production management as smartphone demand varies more sharply by price tier.
iPhone 16 orders cut by around 10 million units for 4Q24-1H25; no evidence yet that Apple Intelligence could boost iPhone shipments in the near term https://link.medium.com/...
CNBC headline today: “Apple shares near sessions lows as company faces China pressure” As usual for CNBC, that headline is a meaningless word salad. AAPL shares are trading near all-time highs, up 2% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500...
And they're stuffing inventory channels to And it's going to get worse once folks actually try Apple “Intelligence”. There is zero reason to buy a new iPhone. How big is the stock buyback for Q4 going to be? A PE of 36 is a joke! $AAPL
$AAPL NOT GOOD either the Apple iPhone 16 story is as simple as “no one really wants to upgrade, so they won't” or everyone is off on these estimates really not sure where the growth comes from if it's not iPhone 16 or Apple Intelligence given it hasn't launched yet the market [i…
Per @mingchikuo, $AAPL iPhone 16 orders for Q4 - Q2 2025 were cut by 10 million units. Production estimates for the 2H of this year were cut from 88M to 84M. He's not seeing any “signs of Apple Intelligence boosting shipments.” I think we could be hearing from Wedbush & Dan
$AAPL - APPLE DROPS AS ANALYST SAYS IPHONE PRODUCTION CUT BY 10 MLN UNITS iPhone 16 orders cut by around 10 million units for fourth quarter to first half of 2025, with most of the cuts affecting non-Pro models - TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone 16
Well knock me over with a feather - who could have guessed this was coming?? Oh, and by the way here's another headline today from The Information: “Apple Sharply Scales Back Production of Vision Pro.” Such a deal at 36 times earnings! [image]
New iPhone SE: Apple suppliers are on track to begin mass production of the iPhone SE 4 this December, according to @mingchikuo. The new iPhone SE will strongly resemble the iPhone 14, featuring an all-screen design with Face ID and Apple Intelligence support. [image]