Analysis: new iPhone first weekend pre-orders were down 12.7% to ~37M units; the iPhone 16 Pro declined 27% and iPhone 16 Pro Max 16% compared to the iPhone 15
Based on my latest supply chain survey and pre-order results from Apple's official websites, I've compiled key data on iPhone 16's …
Ming-Chi Kuo
Context & Ripple Effects
The iPhone 16 launch follows signs of uneven demand in the prior cycle, including reports that iPhone 15 sales in China trailed the iPhone 14. The sharper declines in the 16 Pro and Pro Max matter because the weakness is concentrated in Apple’s higher-end models rather than limited to the entry tier.
Later related coverage reported that Apple reduced iPhone 16 orders by about 10 million units, chiefly among non-Pro models. That makes the opening pre-order figures a useful early demand signal, while not establishing final sell-through on their own.
First-order effects
Apple enters the iPhone 16 cycle with roughly 37 million first-weekend pre-orders, down 12.7% year over year; the Pro and Pro Max register steeper respective declines of 27% and 16%.
The immediate demand mix is weaker for Apple’s premium iPhone variants, reducing early visibility into the higher-value portion of the upgrade cycle.
Second-order effects
Lower early demand can lead Apple and its supply chain to recalibrate production plans; the later reported order reduction is consistent with that adjustment, though it was concentrated in non-Pro models.
The divergent model-level results complicate any simple conclusion about iPhone-wide demand: Apple must manage inventory and component commitments across both premium and non-premium models rather than treating the launch as uniform.
Third-order effects
If premium-model launch demand repeatedly softens, annual iPhone growth will depend less on a predictable Pro-led mix and more on Apple’s ability to refresh demand across the full lineup.
The subsequent stronger first-10-day iPhone 17 sales show that first-weekend pre-orders are an early indicator, not a durable verdict; launch comparisons will increasingly need to distinguish model mix and regional performance.
The trend: This is one data point in a more volatile iPhone upgrade cycle, where launch demand and premium-model mix can shift materially from one generation to the next.
iPhone 16 first weekend pre-order analysis: estimated total sales of about 37 million units; Pro series demand lower than expected https://link.medium.com/...
iPhone 16 Pro sales are expected to be down 27% over the 15 Pro Sales of the regular models are expected to be higher than the 15 series, but not enough to replace the lower sales of the Pro series [image]
These are always absolute guesses based on “triangulation” but I predicted this will be a stronger cycle for base iPhone 16 no Pro and it seems multiple checks to confirm some mix shift. AI hype plays zero role here.
“I'm not saying Steve Jobs would have killed the iPhone 16, I'm just saying he would have figured out a better way to package it and market it and present it.” A great read and goes the heart of how Apple products are all still derivatives of the Jobs era (you can debate Watch
Sticking with it. My iPhone is the most important product in my life, now would be a dumb time to break my decade long streak. Though I did swap my 16 Plus order for a 16 Pro. Too important for me personally, need the best. Is it still a crazy marginal update? Yes. Should most
Every Apple iPhone cycle the bears come out of the gates looking for mathematical gymnastics in pre orders. As discussed this iPhone 16 AI upgrade cycle will kick off a massive super cycle and should exceed Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever. Firm bull thesis into 2025🍏🍎🐂
I'm not saying Steve Jobs would have killed the iPhone 16, I'm just saying he would have figured out a better way to package it and market it and present it. https://spyglass.org/...