Analysts: iPhone 15 sales in China are down compared to the iPhone 14; Counterpoint estimates a 4.5% drop after 17 days and Jefferies says Huawei outsold Apple
- IPhone 15 selling worse in China than its predecessor in 2022 — Sales of Apple's flagship device are down 4.5% in comparison
Context & Ripple Effects
Apple entered the iPhone 15 launch against a weakened Chinese handset market: China’s 2022 smartphone sales had fallen to a decade low, while iPhone sales declined less sharply than the market overall.
The launch-period comparison is an early sign that Apple’s China position was becoming more contested. Later coverage recorded a much steeper iPhone sales decline in Q1 2024 as Huawei’s shipments and share rose.
First-order effects
- Apple’s newest iPhone is selling below the prior model’s early pace in China, weakening the launch cycle in one of its key smartphone markets.
- Huawei’s reported lead over Apple during the launch window gives it immediate momentum in premium-phone competition and retail positioning.
Second-order effects
- Apple faces greater pressure to defend demand through product positioning and channel execution, while Huawei gains a stronger reference point for competing against iPhone at similar price levels.
- A softer iPhone launch can shift near-term handset demand toward Chinese brands, particularly if consumers treat Huawei as a credible premium alternative.
Third-order effects
- If repeated across product cycles, China’s premium smartphone market could become less iPhone-centric and more structurally competitive among domestic vendors.
- The pattern would make Apple’s China results more dependent on retaining existing device users and sustaining revenue per active device, rather than assuming each flagship refresh expands unit demand.
The trend: China’s smartphone market is shifting from Apple’s relatively resilient position toward tougher premium-tier competition from Huawei and other domestic brands.