Sources: Apple cut 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400K to 450K units, compared to a 700K+ market consensus, and US demand has “fallen sharply beyond expectations”

My latest survey is as follows: — Apple has cut its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400-450k units (vs. market consensus of 700-800k units or more).

Ming-Chi Kuo 2024-04-24

Context & Ripple Effects

Vision Pro entered 2024 with supply plans already constrained: Apple and Luxshare had reportedly reduced initial production plans because of manufacturing difficulties. Early preorders were strong, but unchanged delivery times soon indicated that demand had tapered after the launch window.

This reported shipment revision reverses the more optimistic February read that US demand was exceeding Apple’s original expectations. It matters because it shifts the near-term constraint from making the headset to finding sustained demand at its current scale.

First-order effects

Apple’s 2024 Vision Pro shipment outlook falls to 400,000–450,000 units, below the cited market expectation, while the US sales outlook weakens materially.
Apple and its production partners must align output and component orders with a lower volume plan rather than the higher consensus forecast.

Second-order effects

A demand-led cut reduces the urgency of the manufacturing bottlenecks that had previously limited planned output, leaving suppliers exposed to a smaller near-term headset order book.
The gap between launch demand and ongoing US demand raises the importance of extending sales beyond the initial buyer cohort, rather than relying on early-adopter momentum alone.

Third-order effects

If subsequent launches show the same pattern, premium mixed-reality hardware may remain a low-volume platform until pricing, use cases, or both broaden the addressable market.
The episode underscores that a flagship device can clear its initial supply constraints without establishing durable mass-market demand; production planning will increasingly need to distinguish those two signals.

The trend: Vision Pro is becoming an early test of whether premium spatial-computing devices can convert launch enthusiasm into repeatable, broad-based demand.

Discussion

@sean.hodgdon Sean Hodgdon on threads
As someone who's seriously considered purchasing a Vision Pro, the only things that convinced me otherwise are all fixable by software. Add persistent windows (even after a full restart) and multiple Mac windows and I'm sold. It's giving Apple Watch Series 0, which I waited to …
@marypcbuk.bsky.social Mary Branscombe on bluesky
the latest VR winter has been getting colder [embedded post]
@mingchikuo @mingchikuo on x
Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED trends
@bzamayo Benjamin Mayo on x
Financial Times last year said Apple would produce 400,000 Vision Pro units in 2024. Kuo today said the same, but suddenly it's being treated as shockingly bad news. [image]
@cixliv @cixliv on x
Even I, a distinguished Meta hater gentleman use the Quest 3 more than my Vision Pro. The Vision Pro did not in fact not have a good Vision. It was like so many things in VR: a problem looking for a solution. Apple needs a big revamp for v2. Also ffs it's so expensive. [image]
@ericpresidentvr @ericpresidentvr on x
@Lunayian I knew I wasn't taking crazy pills when I saw his tweet. I am not the largest Apple Vision lover, but I knew that tweet was bs
@lunayian Luna on x
Yup. As I said earlier, those who view the space based on revenue/stocks/supply often have a skewed way of positioning or framing things. Meta wasn't expecting to sell 7M Quest 3s in 3 months, and Apple wasn't expecting the first gen Vision to be a runaway 1M+ unit success.
@scobleizer Robert Scoble on x
Well, duh. It's way too heavy. Meta has the better strategy for now: go with RayBan glasses. Yes, Meta has no display. Yet. But the form factor consumers will adopt is glasses. Not something heavier. Apple could actually beat Meta's glasses with an even better form factor:…
@scobleizer Robert Scoble on x
@d_feldman Consumers will never go for something with a cord. At least not in huge numbers. Luckily Apple has UltraWideBand, which is 12x faster than BlueTooth.
@benbajarin Ben Bajarin on x
This is tricky because no one knows what the initial build goal was since Apple builds for quarterly demand. But, I had not gotten the sense from the broader supply chain that >500k was the initial year one target anyway.
@neilcybart Neil Cybart on x
My unit sales estimate for Apple Vision Pro in CY2024 has been 175,000 units. I find it interesting that some “analysts” have been raising and lowering their Vision Pro sales estimates based on “surveys” and are now positioning 450,000 unit sales in 2024 as a disaster.
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED trends https://medium.com/... // NB. Apple does not issue any unit forecasts and has not reported unit numbers on most all products for ages. Still, nothing beats an...
@patrickmoorhead Patrick Moorhead on x
Not surprised, BUT, it's hard to call a “cut” a “cut” to someone else's expectations other than the company's. Having worked with many big suppliers and ODMs, Apple likely asked for flex to go higher off a smaller internal number. A stretch goal.... not the commit. $AAPL
@neilcybart Neil Cybart on x
Ming Chi Kuo's numbers and statements regarding Apple Vision Pro sales don't make sense. He said on: Feb 28th: Apple's original estimate was to sell 150K -200K Vision Pros in U.S. in 2024. Actual sales are coming in stronger. April 23rd: Apple has cut 2024 Vision Pro shipments…
@tomwarren Tom Warren on x
I'm shocked that nobody wants to buy a $3,500 VR headset
@azadux Azad Balabanian on x
I'd take this with a complete grain of salt. There's no way Apple overestimated units sold Kuo (the info source) is contradicting himself (see: https://twitter.com/...)
r/technology r on reddit
Apple reportedly cuts Vision Pro production due to low demand
r/technology r on reddit
Apple reportedly cuts Vision Pro production due to low demand
r/virtualreality r on reddit
Apple Cuts Vision Pro Shipments as Demand Falls ‘Sharply Beyond Expectations’
r/VisionPro r on reddit
Apple Cuts Vision Pro Shipments As Demand Falls ‘Sharply Beyond Expectations’
r/hardware r on reddit
Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED Trends
r/apple r on reddit
Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED Trends

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