Apple sold an estimated 160K-180K Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend; unchanged shipping times after first 48 hours suggest demand tapered off

Conclusion: The immediate sold-out when pre-orders opened confirms earlier predictions. However, the inability to sustain …

Ming-Chi Kuo 2024-01-22

Context & Ripple Effects

Initial supply expectations put Vision Pro at roughly 500,000 units for 2024. The opening-weekend estimate therefore offered an early test of whether an immediate launch surge could translate into sustained volume.

Subsequent coverage complicates the initial read: reported sales later passed 200,000 units, while Apple was subsequently said to have cut its 2024 shipment outlook to 400,000–450,000 units. By October, estimates suggested sales were close to reported peak production capacity, indicating a smaller but potentially planned production run.

First-order effects

Apple’s near-term Vision Pro order flow appears concentrated in the launch window, with the unchanged delivery timing signaling less pressure on the initial allocation after the first two days.
The estimate gives Apple an early signal to calibrate production and inventory against demand that may be materially lower than the earlier 500,000-unit 2024 shipment estimate.

Second-order effects

A weaker sustained order pace would shift attention from launch sell-outs to whether Apple can maintain demand over time; later reports of sales exceeding 200,000 units provide a near-term benchmark for that trajectory.
Suppliers and developers tied to Vision Pro would have to plan around a potentially narrower installed base than launch demand alone implied, affecting the pace at which they prioritize headset-specific output.

Third-order effects

The pattern underscores that early sell-outs are an incomplete demand signal for new premium hardware; sustained delivery lead times and shipment revisions become more consequential measures of market depth.
If this pattern persists across new device categories, manufacturers may favor tighter initial production runs and staged scaling over committing to consensus volume forecasts before post-launch demand is visible.

The trend: Vision Pro is one example of premium new-hardware launches where concentrated early-adopter demand must be separated from durable mainstream volume.

Discussion

@carlquintanilla Carl Quintanilla on x
“.. Achieving a shipment volume of 500,000 units for Vision Pro this year should not be challenging. However, because demand tapers off quickly after the initial sold-out, it's critical .. to assess changes ..” $AAPL
@mingchikuo @mingchikuo on x
Vision Pro首週末預購檢視： .合預期但隱憂浮. / Vision Pro's first-weekend pre-order review: expectations in line, but concerns raised https://link.medium.com/...
@spatialreport @spatialreport on x
Kuo: Estimates Apple sold 160,000-180,000 Vision Pro units during opening pre-order weekend [image]
@appltrack @appltrack on x
Apple has already sold 160-180k Vision Pro units during pre-orders, according to @mingchikuo 😳 Do you think the product will be a success longterm? [image]
r/apple r on reddit
Vision Pro's first-weekend pre-order review (Ming-Chi Kuo estimates 160,000 to 180,000 preorders)
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
It's funny to see people saying if developers don't like paying the 30% fee then they should build web apps. I've already covered previously how Apple doesn't invest in making the web app experience good on iOS since it undermines their App Store fee revenue. …
@shanselman Scott Hanselman on threads
I have not used the Vision Pro. I'm still allowed to have an opinion. I've owned seven different augmented, mixed, and virtual reality headsets. From HoloLens to Vive, three quests, Xreal, etc. I feel more than qualified to offer an opinion as we wait to try them for ourselve…
@arunsees Arun Rao on threads
Yup - normally it doesn't make sense to port to another platform till it has tens of millions of users, but Apple was able to convince devs to join early because it had goodwill and a track record of success. That went away after Jobs and Jony left - Apple is still chugging alon…
@tappenden.dev Max Tappenden on threads
I'm not here to defend Apple (although as someone who's just spent over $4k on this thing, I am somewhat here to defend myself ...). I saw your opinion earlier and decided not to comment, but it did strike me as odd that you'd voice it with no first hand experience, not least be…
@johannes.ernst Johannes Ernst on threads
I think he's missing a 5th, which I would put at the top of the list: It implements a radically different interaction model from keyboard/mouse and touch. A very different medium than PCs and handhelds. Nobody that I've heard of has a conceptual model for how to use this new me…
@orgap Orga Price on threads
I'm wondering if Apple has to succeed in the way that we think other companies have to. The way things work now, Apple just has to be in the space, and they're automatically assumed to be the best. I'm genuinely not sure they need app support to be a success the way Meta or Mic…
@shanselman Scott Hanselman on threads
I feel like the Apple Vision Pro isn't 10x the quality/benefit of the extremely impressive Meta Quest 3. Additionally, the barebones but very competent Xreal lets me mirror my iPhone 15 Pro Max with a single USB-C cable and is a perfectly cromulent second screen I wouldn't be em…
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
For a new platform to take off it needs both end user and developer adoption. If the AVP isn't selling out given the relatively tiny inventory then it has an end user adoption challenge. It looks like Apple has that covered. The developer adoption problem is one the AVP still …
@caultond David Caulton on threads
Dev adoption is easy; first, get 50M users. Build an amazing standalone devices with a value proposition. The iPhone had no platform; when they opened it up devs would crawl over broken glass to get in..."First build an awesome Platform. Then get apps. Then the users will com…
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
One reason Apple's 30% cut of IAPs rankles developers is that it follows the console model without the same business model. Consoles are sold at a loss to gain marketshare and then XBox, Playstation, etc charge developers 30% to recoup. Except the iPhone isn't a loss leader.
@AnnemarieBridy@mastodon … Annemarie Bridy on mastodon
Interesting to see Apple's new VR platform getting the cold shoulder from developers. https://www.theverge.com/...
@stroughtonsmith … Steve Troughton-Smith on mastodon
Of the ~150 odd native apps for Vision Pro on the App Store right now, only one of them is priced at $50, and three are priced just above $4.99. The majority are free or freemium. I guess that answers the pricing question?
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
New developments on Vision Pro sales process from retail meetings today: - In-store pickup customers who order online can either take the device and leave, go through the in-store demo or do a 1:1 set up with an employee to verify size/fit. If needed, customers can swap sizes of…
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
So far, about 230 visionOS native apps are ready for release. That'll likely rise by Feb. 2 - but I doubt significantly. There are new AR heavy apps coming from Lowe's and JCrew, and the rest are from indie developers or the entertainment + productivity apps Apple has announced.
@games_fray @games_fray on x
Developers' issues with Apple's App Store policies go beyond the 30% tax that a U.S. Congressman described as highway robbery. There are numerous restrictions just intended to protect Apple's control. One can't even easily distribute test versions without approval. 🧵1/3
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on x
Correcting my prior tweet, it sounds like Apple sold out of its launch inventory of 80K units. The key question seems to be how Apple will get developers to support a new platform which only expects to sell 300K-400K units this year. Not even its apps do https://www.bloomberg.com…
@jon_prosser Jon Prosser on x
Vision Pro is launching with 80k users, at most. YouTube, Netflix, Spotify = businesses. Putting resources into an app for 80k people to use at launch is silly for those companies right now. They'll come around when there's more users. It's not that deep, it's just business.
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
Power On: Apple's Vision Pro will lack some key apps when it debuts, renewing concerns about an already-tense relationship with certain developers. Plus, Apple plans living room feel for demos at flagship stores & how spO2 fight could impact future plans. https://www.bloomberg.co…
@snazzylabs @snazzylabs on x
I really like what @reckless said on the most recent Vergecast about Vision Pro—that it's a really good VR headset, but it's just another VR headset with the challenges that come with that. Nilay and @vicmsong have the most salient experience summaries I've heard thus far.
@patrickwayte Patrick Wayte on x
App Store fee structure and the control created by the App Store model is unsustainable for future creativity and development... way too much money, power flowing in for what is provided.
@bengeskin Ben Geskin on x
Spatial computing workstation 🥽✨ ∙ Place apps and webpages anywhere around you ∙ Any size and aspect ratio ∙ Keyboard and mouse support ∙ Work in your room or in a virtual environment I think this is pretty awesome and you can actually get some work done like that. Yes,... [video…
@kentbye Kent Bye on x
I've been sharing some longer posts & reflections about the #AppleVisionPro over on LinkedIn. Folks are underestimating the excitement around how much is unknown about the Apple Vision Pro, how it will be used, what will be discovered. It's the Wild West: https://www.linkedin.com…
@alandail Alan Dail on x
@markgurman And iPhone App Store didn't open until a full year after the iPhone release, so there was already an installed base of customers for the apps.
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
For reference: the iPhone App Store launched with 500 app, the iPad App Store launched with 2000 apps. Those numbers climbed quickly.
@da_real_hugo Jonathan Chavez on x
“Developers who favor touch-screen interfaces have their own gripes. Dave Wiskus, who runs independent podcasting platform Nebula, wrote that 'apps designed specifically for touch don't translate directly to the Vision Pro's interaction model,' making them ‘kind of weird and unp…
@javierdavalos Javier Davalos on x
I am excited about #VisionPro but please understand... I ported my app to every device imaginable, but for AVP I have to put in months of work, and deprecate older supported platforms in the process. Why? Because Apple wants complete rendering control in MR, for no good reason
@jetscott Scott Stein on x
@kentbye Great point. The first wave of App Store games were playing with elements of iPhone hardware in unique ways...it could be the same here
@rakeshlobster Rakesh Agrawal on x
“Surprisingly, Apple is running Podcasts, News, Calendar, Reminders and other essential apps in their iPad versions, without redesigned interfaces.” If you're not coming up with creative ways to demonstrate capabilities of your new platform... https://www.bloomberg.com/...
@zollotech Aaron Zollo on x
One thing I think I will enjoy with Vision Pro is the environments and working in them. If I can't edit, at least I can do some notetaking in it.
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
A Survey of Popular Apps Currently Compatible With Apple Vision Pro https://www.macstories.net/... // this is exactly the wrong way to view whether AVP is gaining momentum or not. Legacy apps won't make or break the platform. It's about new apps. Every shift has shown this “rule”…
@sdw Sebastiaan de With on x
Vision Pro comes with all the standard apps a user might expect like mail, messages, music, dinosaurs [image]
r/apple r on reddit
Apple's Testy Developer Relationships Threaten to Hamper Vision Pro

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