Kuo: Apple plans to postpone mass production or cancel the iPhone SE 4, set to launch in 2024, due to lower-than-expected middle- and lower-end iPhone shipments
Juli Clover / MacRumors :
Context & Ripple Effects
The iPhone SE has become Apple's demand shock-absorber, and Kuo has flagged this pattern before: the SE Plus was pushed from H1 to H2 2021 on soft iPhone demand, while the 5G-equipped SE shipped on schedule in H1 2022. This report extends that playbook — with mid- and lower-end shipments missing expectations, the 2024 SE 4 is now on the postponement-or-cancellation list.
What makes this cut more consequential than a routine lineup shuffle is what the SE 4 was carrying: as later reporting in this coverage shows, the model was slated to debut Apple's in-house 5G modem, and the full cancellation in January 2023 took that debut down with it — before the line was revived with 8.6M units in late 2024 even as non-Pro iPhone 16 orders were trimmed.
First-order effects
- Apple's budget-iPhone roadmap slips: the 2024 SE 4 launch Kuo describes moves out or dies, directly affecting the mid- and lower-end segment where shipments are already running below plan.
- Suppliers and assemblers booked for SE 4 volume — including the modem chain tied to its planned debut — face delayed or cancelled orders for that build cycle.
Second-order effects
- The in-house 5G modem loses its launch vehicle, extending Apple's reliance on its existing modem supplier for another generation and pushing the in-house transition timeline out.
- A weaker budget lineup shifts Apple's mix further toward Pro models, raising the stakes on premium-segment demand to carry total iPhone volumes.
Third-order effects
- The SE line is hardening into Apple's release valve — postponed in 2020, threatened in 2022, cancelled in 2023, then revived in 2024 — meaning the budget iPhone's cadence is set by demand signals rather than a fixed refresh cycle, with the in-house modem's debut hostage to that volatility.
- If mid- and lower-end iPhone demand stays structurally softer than the premium tier, Apple's product strategy and supplier order books increasingly skew around a two-speed iPhone lineup.
The trend: Apple's budget iPhone is shifting from a fixed refresh cadence to a demand-triggered one, with each mid-tier shortfall deciding whether the next SE ships, slips, or dies.