Kuo: an iPhone SE with 5G is coming in H1'22; a cheaper 6.7″ iPhone and two high-end models with a punch-hole display and a 48MP wide camera will come in H2'22
Following last week's release of the iPhone 13 lineup, reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is out with new expectations for what to expect from the iPhone 14.
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo had already forecast an iPhone SE with 5G and a move away from the notch for 2022, while his 2019 SE prediction established the smaller model as a distinct, lower-cost iPhone line. The new forecast narrows the display change to two high-end models and adds a less-expensive large-screen tier.
That matters because it describes Apple separating 2022 upgrades by price and form factor rather than applying the same visual change across the whole range.
First-order effects
- Apple’s reported 2022 plan gives the iPhone SE a 5G update in the first half, then splits the second-half lineup between a cheaper 6.7-inch option and two more heavily upgraded high-end models.
- The punch-hole display and 48MP wide camera, under Kuo’s forecast, become differentiators for Apple’s high-end iPhones rather than baseline changes for every model.
Second-order effects
- A cheaper 6.7-inch iPhone would make screen size a weaker premium-only distinction within Apple’s own lineup, putting more weight on camera and display design upgrades at the top end.
- The narrower scope of the notch change revises Kuo’s earlier suggestion that it might extend across the entire 2022 iPhone lineup, preserving clearer visual separation between tiers.
Third-order effects
- If Apple continues to reserve major display and camera changes for selected models, iPhone segmentation will increasingly rely on staged hardware access across price bands rather than a uniform annual redesign.
- The recurring SE forecasts point to Apple maintaining a separate upgrade cadence for its entry model, alongside a more elaborate second-half flagship cycle.
The trend: Apple’s reported iPhone roadmap points to increasingly explicit tiering: connectivity updates for the SE, larger displays at lower prices, and design and camera advances concentrated in premium models.