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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Apple's rumored shift to its own CPUs for Mac may parallel the 2005 transition to Intel and brings up similar questions of emulation, developer transition kits

Mark Gurman: … I'm not sure what the hedging is about there, other than the fact that anything reported about anyone's future plans could, in theory, change.

Daring Fireball John Gruber

Context & Ripple Effects

The rumor has been building in stages: Axios reported back in early 2019 that developers and Intel officials expected an ARM-based Mac as soon as next year, Kuo put a first Apple-silicon Mac on a 12-to-18-month clock in February (his forecast), and yesterday Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported the announcement could come at this month's WWDC (Apple planning a shift from Intel chips to its own Arm processors). Daring Fireball's contribution is the historical frame: the 2005 PowerPC-to-Intel move faced the same questions — binary translation, developer transition kits — that now hang over the reverse journey.

The technical stakes are laid out in Steve's deep dive into the x86-to-ARM transition issues, and with WWDC previews pointing to an ARM Mac transition alongside iOS 14 announcements, the question has shifted from whether Apple switches to how it manages two architectures in one Mac lineup.

First-order effects

  • Intel loses one of its highest-margin, most visible design wins if Macs move to Apple-designed Arm chips, ending a supply relationship dating to the 2005 transition the article invokes.
  • Mac developers face the same fork the 2005 switch created: recompile for the new architecture, rely on emulation for legacy software, or get a developer transition kit to bridge the gap.

Second-order effects

  • Apple's control of both silicon and OS removes the CPU-vendor dependency that shaped Mac release cadence and specs since 2005, letting it bundle processor improvements into its own roadmap rather than waiting on Intel's tick-tock.
  • Other PC makers watching the largest Mac transition since 2005 will face pressure to justify x86-only lineups against a rival whose phones, tablets, and now laptops share one architecture.

Third-order effects

  • If Apple executes a second architecture migration cleanly, the precedent strengthens the case that vertically integrated, workload-specific silicon beats merchant CPUs for consumer devices — a template other device makers have already begun copying.

The trend: Consumer computing is consolidating around vertically integrated, architecture-controlled silicon, with Apple's Mac transition marking the point where even general-purpose PCs exit the merchant-CPU model.

Discussion

  • @sonnydickson Sonny Dickson on x
    New iMac incoming at WWDC. iPad Pro design language, with Pro Display like bezels. T2 chip, AMD Navi GPU, and no more fusion drive
  • @vladsavov Vlad Savov on x
    Intel's been trying to do graphics longer than Apple has had its own chip-design group and Apple's laptop/desktop efforts are even newer, and yet it's already ahead of Intel on graphics. This is Olympic-tier plateauing. https://twitter.com/...
  • @nash076 @nash076 on x
    This is ... kind of bad. Bad for Mac users, bad for PC users, bad for competition. Because this is essentially killing the Mac as a viable platform. https://arstechnica.com/...
  • @jefflaporte Jeff LaPorte on x
    14/n So here's my probably wrong but fun/absolutely 20% sure 😉 prediction for the WWDC keynote: After announcing the ARM Mac transition, Tim Cook welcomes AWS CEO Andy Jassy onto the stage to introduce a partnership to highlight the availability and future of AWS's ARM-based...
  • @stroughtonsmith Steve Troughton-Smith on x
    If Apple does a desktop ARM devkit, say a Mac mini or something, then I might consider replacing my 2012 iMac with it. If it's a laptop, forget it. I lived on the Apple Intel Developer Transition Kit from the moment I got it, and it was the fastest I ever remember OS X running
  • @stroughtonsmith Steve Troughton-Smith on x
    Apple doesn't need to eschew AppKit for an ARM transition on the Mac; both Catalyst and SwiftUI rely on it heavily — it's not an either/or. What they could get, effectively for free, is binary compatibility with existing iPad apps. A single, shared app platform, SDK & App Store
  • @BenBajarin @BenBajarin on x
    Don't think so. Apples cost to TSMC per iPhone chip is already very high ~$50. So a beefier chip could cost more. My guess is beak even roughly. But, again, control.
  • @film_girl @film_girl on x
    Oh, but I disagree! Boot Camp and having that ability to fall back on Windows was massive! I was in college at the time and it was almost overnight how quickly laptops went from Dell to Mac b/c of the combo of Vista and Intel Macs.
  • @snazzyq Quinn Nelson on x
    If these redesigned iMac and new ARM Mac rumors at WWDC are true, this is gonna be an expensive few months. Excited tho!
  • @jsnell Jason Snell on x
    SS posts a lot of smart stuff but he missed this one. Carbon/Cocoa was about OS X transition, not move to Intel. I want an iPad laptop too, but macOS isn't going to provide it to you, iPadOS will. MacOS is for Mac stuff. That's Cocoa for the foreseeable future. https://twitter.co…
  • @saschasegan Sascha Segan on x
    One of the most interesting questions about the Mac-to-ARM transition is how badly Adobe will handle it, and how many years of pain Adobe users have to look forward to.
  • @stroughtonsmith Steve Troughton-Smith on x
    Porting a Mac app to ARM may just be a checkbox in Xcode, but all of your dependencies are going to have to have checked that checkbox before you do — and updated their makefiles, and their build scripts. If they don't, you're going to have to. This is why transitions take years