Kuo: Apple will release its first ARM-based Mac in the next 12 to 18 months, using an Apple designed chip instead of an Intel processor
these kinds of apps take time to port, often with lengthy external testing. Can't just ship Chris Maddern / @chrismaddern : Apple may not always “love you back” with things like long-term support and backwards compatibility.... but I LOVE their ability to make bold moves. They are literally the ONLY company in the world that could make ARM processors mainstream. https://9to5mac.com/... @nash076 : The ability to run Windows on a Mac via Bootcamp has become vital to serious Mac users. Mac's current OS is based on x86, which means it and the software it runs requires Intel/AMD chips. This? This would break ALL of the compatibility. https://www.macrumors.com/... Steven Sinofsky / @stevesi : “I do not think x86 apps running in emulation on ARM Macs are going to perform well. I wonder, really, if Apple will even offer x86 emulation at all.” — @daringfireball // Agree. It's more than recompile—it is recompile to Mac app store. And touch? https://daringfireball.net/... Pankaj Mishra / @pankajontech : Amid all the backlash and startup mis-adventures, SoftBank's big bet on ARM underscores why it's still among the best in tech PE kind of long shots https://9to5mac.com/... Adam Nash / @adamnash : Will 2021 be the year we move from Intel-based Macs to ARM-based? Having some fond memories of the old PowerPC vs. Pentium fights from the 1990s. 🎉 https://9to5mac.com/... Bruce Nkn / @zbruceli : This actually makes sense: Apple Mac adopting ARM processors. “Mobile First” has created the fastest innovation cycle in computing, with mobile CPU and mobile OS leading the way. https://9to5mac.com/... Steve Troughton-Smith / @stroughtonsmith : It is not outside of the realm of possibility that Apple could provide an ARM version of macOS for developers to temporarily flash onto iPads to prepare for a Mac transition next year. Even easier if the next iPad has a decent keyboard/trackpad case @mytechmusings : Well expected development for the people who are closely following @Arm developments in recent years.. with #windowsonarm and #Macosonarm It will be interesting to see how competition between @Intel & @Arm will share the personal computing space @Microsoft @MacRumors https://twitter.com/... Jeff Benjamin / @jeffbenjam : Probably more excited for this than anything in the foreseeable future. So many advantages over Intel-based systems. And the disadvantages of A-series-powered Macs will dissolve over time, unlike the current disadvantages with Intel-based hardware. Bring it on. https://twitter.com/... David Ruddock / @rdrv3 : Big if true. But I have to imagine this will result in a fragmenting of the Mac ecosystem for years to come. Getting pros off x86 just isn't viable yet. https://twitter.com/... Seth Weintraub / @llsethj : Let's get this over with already https://twitter.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's call lands mid-arc: the technical deep dive into the rumored x86-to-ARM transition had already mapped the porting and compatibility hurdles weeks before this prediction, and Apple followed it by confirming that Macs on Apple-designed chips can run iOS apps natively thanks to the shared architecture. The prediction matters because it put a clock on the end of Intel's decade-plus lock on the Mac line.
The payoff came faster than the window implied: Apple shipped the M1 in November 2020, a 5nm SoC whose fan-cooled performance in the Mac mini was judged outstandingly good, besting Intel's chips and on par with AMD's Zen 3. By Q3 2021 Mercury Research measured ARM at roughly 8% of PC chips, up from about 2% a year earlier when no M1 Macs were on sale.
First-order effects
- Intel loses its sole remaining major captive-PC customer as Apple moves Macs onto its own silicon, forcing Intel to compete for the Mac socket it previously won by default.
- Mac buyers face an immediate software fork: apps must be ported or translated, and Boot Camp-style Windows-on-x86 setups — described in coverage as vital to serious Mac users — have no equivalent on Apple-designed chips.
Second-order effects
- Apple can now differentiate macOS by architecture rather than marketing: Monterey features like Live Text, FaceTime Portrait mode, and unlimited on-device dictation ship only on Apple-silicon Macs, pressuring Intel-Mac owners toward upgrades.
- Rivals AMD and Intel face a new benchmark bar — M1-class efficiency and integrated neural engines — while Windows PC makers gain a proven template for shipping ARM laptops at scale.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the PC industry splits along silicon lines: one camp of vertically integrated vendors designing their own chips, and a merchant market where ARM share keeps climbing from its post-M1 baseline — with developers maintaining two build targets as the standing cost.
- Apple's willingness to strand features and compatibility on old architectures sets the template for how fast a platform owner can force an ecosystem migration when it controls both chip and OS.
The trend: Personal computing is re-segmenting around who designs the silicon, with Apple's Mac transition proving a vertically integrated ARM stack can take meaningful PC market share from Intel and AMD.