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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: private equity firm Thoma Bravo is in early talks to acquire McAfee from TPG and Intel for a “significant premium” on McAfee's 2016 valuation of $4.2B

Alex Sherman / CNBC :

CNBC Alex Sherman

Context & Ripple Effects

McAfee has been a controlled asset since Intel spun it out in 2016 at a $4.2B valuation, with TPG paying $1.1B for a 51% stake and Intel retaining 49% through the 2017 relaunch under the McAfee name. Thoma Bravo now entering early talks at a significant premium to that mark means both owners are positioned to exit a two-year-old control investment well above entry.

The buyer matters as much as the price: Thoma Bravo was already assembling a security-software portfolio — Landesk, then Sailpoint and Anaplan — and its ownership of McAfee shows up again in its 2022 work on a potential Twitter bid. A deal here would fold one of the most recognizable consumer-security brands into an increasingly concentrated PE roll-up.

First-order effects

  • TPG stands to roughly double out on its $1.1B control stake if the talks close at a 'significant premium' to the $4.2B 2016 valuation, while Intel monetizes its retained 49% and completes its retreat from the security business it once ran in-house.

Second-order effects

  • A premium price set by Thoma Bravo becomes the new comp for security-software buyouts — and the corpus bears that out, with Advent International agreeing three years later to take McAfee private at $14B including about $4B of debt, more than triple the 2016 mark.

Third-order effects

  • McAfee cycling from Intel to TPG to Thoma Bravo to Advent points to established security franchises being treated as recurring-cash-flow infrastructure that PE firms flip among themselves at rising marks, rather than assets strategic buyers hold long-term.

The trend: Cybersecurity software is consolidating into private-equity hands through successive leveraged buyouts, with each transfer repricing the asset sharply above the last.