The US and China agree to a deal to lower tariffs for the next 90 days, a sign of easing tensions; the US plans to cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%
it's a mirage. We need real trade policies that lift up our communities, not tear them down. — www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... Lindsay Beyerstein / @beyerstein : Trump removes gun from own head for 90 days, no concessions from China. @emperorsclothes : But I just finished hiring 1000 workers for the doll factory I built in the US this past month. I thought we were going to have less dolls and I could reply on protection to make them here. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... David Waldman / @kagrox : Trump math: Our “department store” just lost 115% of our profits. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... Karl Kuszaj / @karlkuszaj : Does it feel like China was trolling Trump by setting their initial tariff hike at 34%—matching his 34 felony convictions? Meanwhile, the White House is declaring victory, but it kind of undermines Trump's whole “we're saving money by not trading with China” argument. — www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... Daniel Drezner / @dandrezner : “Even as China agreed to roll back punitive measures it has imposed over the past month, multiple Chinese agencies, including the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of State Security, met to discuss how to strengthen export controls of strategic minerals.” www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... Abe Newman / @abenewman : 1/Latest in tariff omnishambles. This is not a deal. The US just blinked. The lesson for China: US escalation cannot be maintained. For the US: we will still see inflation and the chance of recession. For the world: the end of US credibility. — www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... @nathansnewman : Trump gets nothing - but agrees to reduce stupid tariffs he imposed to get China to reduce tariffs it imposed in response - but leaves tariffs at a still stupidly high level of 30%, so consumers will continue to suffer — www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... Dani Rodrik / @drodrik : As the US and China step back from a needless trade war, it is worth noting that (a) US tariffs on China will remain high (30%) and will hurt mainly US consumers; and (b) Trump has obtained absolutely nothing from China for all the chaos he generated. Zilch. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... Judah Grunstein / @judah-grunstein : Surprised they announced it before the stock market opened so they could cash in, tbh. Josh Marshall / @joshtpm : Okay, so in huge victory the likes of which has never been seen before Trump puts back on the ground the rake he stepped on four weeks ago. www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/u... Katja Bego / @katjabego : The U.S. and China agree to temporarily slash tariffs from 145% to 30%. — Feels a bit like a prisoner seeing their triple life sentence reduced to a single one. Sure, it's a nominal improvement - but a 30% tariff is still going to cause a lot of pain. — www.ft.com/content/9288... Ed Moltzen / @emoltzen : Alternate Headline: — After Pummeling, Trump Moves Closer to Biden Tariff Levels with China @wiseacre.me : We did it you guys! We're all rich now! Every factory is now located in the US! Kids can have 30 dolls. Congrats! We did it. A meaningless and unnecessary trade war ended the way it started - confusingly and stupidly. — www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b... @chasecarter : We're trading clownshoes numbers for normal amounts of scary, but it's still going to dessicate the tabletop industry. Also, good luck to everyone squeezing as much global distro as possible into 90 days, I guess! Paul Armstrong / @paularmstrongtbd : Trump cannot stop blinking. [embedded post] Alex Hern / @hern : Very annoying that this has happened quickly enough that guitar manufacturers didn't have time to lower UK prices to offload a glut, I was really hoping for a new acoustic [embedded post] Truth Social: Donald J. Trump / @realDonaldTrump@truthsocial.com : IN JUST THREE MONTHS, TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS (and therefore, record numbers of JOBS!) HAVE BEEN POURING INTO THE USA. THIS IS BECAUSE OF MY TARIFF POLICY, and our great November 5th Election WIN! The very STUPID Democrats are doing everything within their power to disparage what is happening. … X: @whitehouse : BREAKING: U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva [image] Patrick Moorhead / @patrickmoorhead : Here's what US & China agreed to: -US reduces 145% to 30% for 90 days -China reduces 125% to 10% for 90 days -90 day suspension to negotiate more -sector specific tariffs remain on steel, aluminum, cars -rare earth and advanced semiconductor licensing remains [image] Liu Pengyu / @spoxchninus : Chinese Vice Premier #HeLifeng: 🔹The high-level meeting on economic and trade affairs between 🇨🇳🇺🇸 in #Geneva was candid, in-depth and constructive. 🔹Both sides have reached an agreement on establishing a #China-#US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will conduct further consultations on issues of mutual concern. 🔹China and the U.S. will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and release on Monday a joint statement reached during the meeting. Ryan Petersen / @typesfast : Get ready for a shipping boom. Ben Meiselas / @meiselasb : So we went from 145 percent tarrifs against China to 30 percent tariffs after Trump told us for months 145 percent tariffs and no ships coming to port was brilliant? We screwed with the lives of workers and small biz owners and shattered consumer confidence, and got what exactly? Joe Weisenthal / @thestalwart : The two big losers today: - People hoping for a Trump-led economic catastrophe - Members of the Big Chess Party, who thought the tariff announcement was some brilliant, strategic plan that would reshape the global economy in a way that was beneficial for the US. @josephpolitano : Official White House Statement: “oof ouch owie stove hot” Henry Blodget / @hblodget : Phew. Unfortunately still a 30% tariff that will hammer Americans and American companies, and unfortunately only postponed 90 days instead of indefinite. But at least we no longer have a trade embargo with a critical trading partner. James Surowiecki / @jamessurowiecki : So the “deal” is, as expected, a pause on tariffs. @grummz : China and US to drop tariffs 115% for 90 days. A lot of tabletop companies charged more for these tariffs. Now they are back down to almost what they were previously. [video] Javier Blas / @javierblas : 🇺🇸🇨🇳 At least, a temporary reprieve in US-China trade war. Washington and Beijing agree to lower tariffs while talks continue over next 3 months: US to lower tariffs on China to 30% (from 145%) for 90 days China to lower tariffs on US to 10% (from 125%) for 90 days Faisal Islam / @faisalislam : FULL joint statement China-US on very substantial suspension of tariffs effectively cut by 115% for 90 days between China and US. Major deescalation.... [image] Michael Brown / @mrmbrown : So...the US went from negligible tariffs on China, to 10%, then 20%, then 54%, then 104%, then 145%...now we're back to 30% for 90 days...and that's supposedly a ‘win’... Nick Denton / @nicknotned : Tariffs — at the level now envisaged for China — will not fix the US balance of payments imbalance. So that can only now be achieved through exchange-rate adjustment. Jeff Park / @dgt10011 : US: we reached a trade deal CHINA: we agreed on establishing rules for future engagement The widest bid/offer the likes of which you have never seen Henry Gao / @henrysgao : MOFCOM just published the deal: 1. Original 34% tariff remains, but 90 day pause for 24%; 2. All retaliatory tariffs are gone. What remains: 1. 10% tariffs from Apr 2; 2. 20% Fentanyl tariff; 3. 25% Trump 1 tariff. That's the same China would've got had it not retaliated. [image] Joris Teer / @joristeer : “China will ... (ii) adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.” anyone got confirmation heavy rare earth/ magnet/ etc controls are off too (for now)? https://www.whitehouse.gov/... Li Jingjing / @jingjing_li : JUST IN: Both China🇨🇳and the US🇺🇸 pledged to remove 91% of the April tariffs and suspend 24% over the next 90 days. Full text of Joint Statement on China-U.S. Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva: https://english.news.cn/... [image] Justin Wolfers / @justinwolfers : Funny aside: At this point the US and China are still yet to agree on who called who to suggest they talk in Geneva. Henry Gao / @henrysgao : Who made more concessions? The Chinese text lists 2 from each side, but that's misleading: China's #1 covers both of the US points, while China's #2—suspending non-tariff measures from April 2—isn't matched by anything on the US side. So who caved? Told you (on Apr 5). Henry Gao / @henrysgao : Confirmed by the English version released by @WhiteHouse: https://www.whitehouse.gov/... [image] Victoria Guida / @vtg2 : This from Chinese state-run media on the US-China trade talks this weekend seems to suggest that the two sides have agreed to a mechanism for further negotiations [image] Craig Fuller / @freightalley : Assuming this structure is workable for US importers, the freight market may rebound in electric fashion and Q3 be one of the best markets in history. There is so much pent up demand and importers will take no chances. Karthik Sankaran / @rajakorman : From Zero Sum To Positive Sum Over Dim Sum! Chen Weihua / @chenweihua : China and U.S. will on Monday issue a joint statement reached at the two-day trade talks in Geneva over the weekend. Asked what will be the exact timing for the release of the joint statement on Monday, Li Chenggang, China's international trade negotiator and vice minister of [image] Edward Lawrence / @edwardlawrence : U.S. Trade Representative Greer about China: “It's important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought. That being said, there was a lot of groundwork that went into these two days.” Chen Weihua / @chenweihua : Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said in Geneva on Sunday that China and the U.S. agreed to establish a consultation mechanism of trade and economic issues, identify the lead persons on each side and will carry on further consultation relating to trade and economic issues of their [image] Josh Wingrove / @josh_wingrove : The US announces a “China Trade Deal,” without specifics. Bessent's statement cites “substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks.” [image] Tuvia Gering / @geringtuvia : Hu Xijin, ex-editor of CCP tabloid Global Times (excerpts in yellow): “This is a significant victory for China in preserving the principles of equality and mutual respect. So far, no other country has reached such equal negotiation terms with the US. “An equal agreement [image] Eunice Yoon / @onlyyoontv : #China state TV social media account says the outcome of trade talks with @realDonaldTrump team shows “China's firm countermeasures and resolute stance have been highly effective.” (China gets nearly all #tariffs off for doing very little other than agreeing to talk— a longstanding source of frustration for many of its trading partners and their businesses.) Yuyuantantian: [image] Mohamed A. El-Erian / @elerianm : A large 90-day coordinated tariff reduction by the world's two largest economies - from 125% to 10% for China and from 145% to 30% for the US - has spurred major global market movements, including higher stocks and bond yields, a stronger dollar, a rise in oil prices, and lower [image] Joe Weisenthal / @thestalwart : “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China agree neither side wants to decouple, adding there were “robust” discussions on fentanyl and that talks could lead to “purchasing agreements” by China” Joe Weisenthal / @thestalwart : “The combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports will be reduced to 30% including the rate tied to fentanyl by May 14, while the 125% Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10%, according to the statement and officials in a briefing Monday in Geneva.” Joe Weisenthal / @thestalwart : CHINA-US agree to lower tariffs on each other for 90 days. Stock futures absolutely soaring. https://www.bloomberg.com/... [image] @trumpdailyposts : IN JUST THREE MONTHS, TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS (and therefore, record numbers of JOBS!) HAVE BEEN POURING INTO THE USA. THIS IS BECAUSE OF MY TARIFF POLICY, and our great November 5th Election WIN! The very STUPID Democrats are doing everything within their power to disparage what is LinkedIn: George Minakakis : Even as the Stock Market Roars Today. This playbook is an asymmetric game to ensure one nation has all the cards. — There will still be Tariffs on China and the rest of the world. … Kwaku Otchere : As someone building a tech company globally, I pay close attention to how trade policy impacts the flow of business. … Forums: r/gaming : Nvidia reportedly raises GPU prices by 10-15% as manufacturing costs surge — tariffs and TSMC price hikes filter down to retailers r/hardware : Nvidia reportedly raises GPU prices by 10-15% as manufacturing costs surge — tariffs and TSMC price hikes filter down to retailers r/Aliexpress : US/China tarrifs update r/technology : Nvidia Reportedly Raises GPU Prices By 10-15% As Manufacturing Costs Surge r/politics : U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough r/NintendoSwitch2 : U.S. and China Announce Deal to Reduce Tariffs for 90 days r/centrist : U.S. and China Reach Deal to Temporarily Slash Tariffs r/Economics : Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva (White House) r/moderatepolitics : U.S. and China Reach Deal to Temporarily Slash Tariffs r/unusual_whales : U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough r/Economics : U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough r/Sino : As part of an agreement hammered out in Geneva over the weekend, the US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% and China … r/neoliberal : China and US agree to slash tariffs Msmash / Slashdot : US and China Agree To Temporarily Slash Tariffs
Context & Ripple Effects
The 90-day tariff rollback follows signs that both sides were already carving out exceptions for strategically important supply chains: China had reportedly exempted certain US-made chips it viewed as irreplaceable, while US officials indicated consumer-electronics treatment could shift into a semiconductor-specific tariff regime.
The agreement lowers broad import duties but leaves sector tariffs and export-control measures intact. That distinction matters because trade normalization and technology-security policy are moving on separate tracks, rather than being resolved by one tariff agreement.
First-order effects
- Importers of Chinese goods face a sharply lower US tariff rate for 90 days, while Chinese buyers of US imports receive an even larger reduction from their prior 125% rate; companies can reassess near-term orders and pricing during the window.
- Steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs remain, and rare-earth and advanced-semiconductor controls remain in force, so affected manufacturers do not receive the same relief as broadly exposed importers.
Second-order effects
- Retailers, distributors, and manufacturers gain an incentive to pull forward shipments or renegotiate orders before the temporary rates expire, while suppliers tied to the remaining sector tariffs still face elevated costs.
- The carve-out logic around chips and consumer electronics becomes more consequential: the prospect of semiconductor-specific tariffs means electronics supply chains must plan for policy that differs by product category, not just country of origin.
Third-order effects
- If successive agreements continue to pair broad tariff pauses with durable technology and materials controls, US-China trade may settle into a segmented system: lower friction for general goods but strategic constraints around critical inputs and compute.
- The consultation mechanism may reduce abrupt escalation, but the short duration leaves trade policy as a recurring operational risk; firms are likely to value sourcing flexibility over treating any single truce as a permanent reset.
The trend: This is part of a shift toward managed US-China interdependence, where tariff truces coexist with tighter controls on strategically important technologies and materials.