Ampere Analysis: the US streaming market will reach $17B in advertising revenue in 2025; 24% of US-based Netflix subscribers are on the Standard with Ads tier
Adrian Pennington / StreamTV Insider : X: @tvgrimreaper See also Mediagazer X: @tvgrimreaper : At its peak, ad spending on US linear TV was >$70 billion/ year. Just like the cable bundle subscriber fees, it's not getting replaced by streaming revenue/ profits. [image] See also Mediagazer
Context & Ripple Effects
Streaming ad tiers had already moved beyond a niche pricing option: Ampere previously counted more than 100M US users across major streaming ad tiers, while reporting cited in 2024 found cheaper ad plans accounted for a majority of new subscriptions.
This forecast puts that adoption into a revenue context. Netflix's 24% US ad-tier share shows advertising is becoming a material part of the service's customer mix, even as the reported $17B streaming ad market remains well below linear TV's historical advertising peak.
First-order effects
- Netflix has a sizable US audience on Standard with Ads, giving its advertising business a larger base of viewers to sell against alongside subscription revenue.
- Ampere's $17B 2025 projection establishes streaming advertising as a meaningful US video-revenue pool for services and advertisers allocating budgets.
Second-order effects
- Rival streamers face added pressure to make lower-priced ad plans competitive on price, audience scale, and advertiser appeal; the prior industry-wide shift toward ad-supported sign-ups suggests this is already affecting acquisition strategy.
- Advertisers shifting video budgets gain more streaming inventory, but the gap with linear TV's former ad-spending scale indicates streaming revenue is not yet a like-for-like replacement for the legacy market.
Third-order effects
- The market is moving toward hybrid subscription-and-ad models, where subscription growth and advertising monetization are increasingly linked rather than separate business lines.
- If ad-tier adoption continues, streaming competition will depend less on subscription price alone and more on each service's ability to turn its audience into dependable advertising revenue—a core version of the subscription-scale trap.
The trend: Streaming services are evolving from subscription-first products into hybrid video businesses that use ad tiers to expand reach and diversify monetization.