Analysts question the feasibility of Tesla's robotaxi plan, citing a lack of rideshare partnerships and Musk's history of missing FSD targets; TSLA drops 8.8%

- Tesla's driverless taxi plan has been met with skepticism over its feasibility and competition with rivals.

Business Insider 2024-10-12

Context & Ripple Effects

Tesla's robotaxi pitch arrived alongside a Cybercab prototype and sub-$30,000 purchase target, but analysts focused on the operational gap between a vehicle announcement and a service that can attract riders at scale.

The skepticism is consequential because later coverage provides a concrete benchmark: Tesla's Austin rollout was reported to trail Waymo in fleet size and driverless operation, underscoring the execution questions raised at launch.

First-order effects

Tesla's 8.8% share-price drop immediately signals a lower market willingness to value the robotaxi plan as near-term, high-confidence growth.
The lack of identified rideshare partners and the record of missed FSD targets put pressure on Tesla and Musk to substantiate how the service would acquire demand and reach dependable autonomy.

Second-order effects

Tesla faces a sharper comparison with operators already running larger driverless fleets; later reporting that Tesla trailed Waymo's Austin deployment makes scale and safety-operator status central competitive measures.
Potential platform partners and customers gain leverage: without a clear distribution route, Tesla may need to prove demand economics before its robotaxi hardware proposition can translate into service revenue.

Third-order effects

If this pattern persists, autonomous-mobility competition will be judged less by prototype announcements than by the combined ability to operate safely, build fleets, and secure rider distribution.
The episode reinforces compute execution risk: ambitious AI product roadmaps can face a valuation discount until deployment evidence closes the gap between promised capability and commercial operations.

The trend: Robotaxi markets are shifting from autonomy demonstrations toward proof of repeatable, driverless service operations and demand distribution.

Discussion

@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, that the Tesla ̶v̶a̶p̶o̶r̶w̶a̶r̶e̶ robotaxi event actually caused the stock price to tank. 🤨
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
The Tesla robotaxi event would have been impressive if we didn't already have Waymo autonomous vehiicles giving 100,000 rides in Phoenix and San Francisco. Instead this was a vaporware announcement in a constrained environment with optimistic timelines, capabilities and prices r…
@11thjeff Jeffrey Phillips on threads
Elon puts forward a fake “robovan” design that would bottom out on its first San Francisco hill. Literally zero ground clearance. Bad design all around.
@boyinabubble Mark Muir on threads
Am I right in saying that Tesla is saying that I'd have to buy a Cybercab instead of them actually running and operating them like Uber or something? What?!
@waltisfrozen Greg Saunders on threads
Tesla announcing a robotaxi that won't come out for two years that isn't as good as Waymos that already exist : “Welcome to the future 🤯”
@neil.cybart Neil Cybart on threads
To be a Tesla analyst, you need to be an Elon Musk analyst. The latter is impossible to do (you don't want to be an analyst of any person), so the former is very difficult as well.
@cartersiddall Carter Siddall on threads
Elon Musk: “Welcome to our demonstration for our completely autonomous robotaxi, Cybercab!” Journalist: “Will you be taking it on the road?” Elon Musk: “I'm getting into the car now!” Journalist: “This is a film studio. We may as well be in a parking lot.” Elon Musk: “Notice…
@davethewaveofficial @davethewaveofficial on threads
BREAKING: Tesla + MyPillow partnership to facilitate strong, patriotic slumber for Robotaxi riders 📈
@technicallymims Christopher Mims on threads
imagine being impressed by a completely staged demo in a completely controlled environment when you could hop into an actual waymo on a real city street tomorrow — RE: https://www.threads.net/...
@entropydenier @entropydenier on threads
Tesla today is basically what Enron would have been if the stock didn't go down
@corey_cantor Corey Cantor on threads
The Tesla Robotaxi event left me with a familiar feeling. Basically, it reminded me of every time for the past three years that I've been told Ben Simmons is about to return to all star status — if I just be patient and wait a little longer. Yes this is a niche tweet.
@rosevearjohn John Rosevear on threads
I have been struggling to write something about the Tesla thing. I did file a draft, but I really had to grind it out. I'm just gobsmacked. What the heck was that?
@john.h.woods John H Woods on threads
It might be simplistic, but it appears crystal clear to me that Tesla cannot achieve Full Self Driving with cameras alone until the AI looking at the camera feeds meets or exceeds human intelligence. I think they might have been able to have made a go of this already if they'd u…
@flhh Frank on threads
It didn't take long to identify the tesla controller. I'm really glad for him that he found a new job in the US. RoboTaxis
@tailrisk_bill @tailrisk_bill on threads
Uber and Lyft rallied after the Robotaxi event. Which is funny- but it also shows you how serially the market takes Teslas every press release.
@johnroycomic John O'Neill Roy on threads
Um, do Tesla investors know that there are working Waymo robotaxis in Los Angeles right now along with working Serve delivery robots? It's like Elon's promising to build the first car while being splashed by a parade of Model Ts.
@mattwinterwatson Matt WW on threads
I feel safe and secure knowing that none of these Tesla products will ever be a reality of modern life A) Because the legal disclaimer at the start of the Tesla presentation said they won't be, they're just “concepts of ideas” B) The three cybertrucks in our town have already cau…
@ashsutcliffe Ash Sutcliffe on threads
It's also the most impractical, essentially WORST body form for a taxi. Curbside access limited No wheelchair access Step ‘down and into’ form - difficult for elderly or limited movement users No third/fourth seats ??? Who is this exactly designed for? If this gets signed off …
@justinflood Justin Flood on threads
Even for a hyperbolic Elon presentation that was exceptionally light on any kind of useful detail or information. This was so transparently a “please make my stock go up” event it's almost funny.
@keubikooriginal @keubikooriginal on threads
I still want to know who will be cleaning the urine, feces, vomit, snot, blood, semen, and Chipotle queso from my Model 3 after it comes back to my house after a night of Robotaxi riches. And who will scootch the passed out meth head along so I can put my kid's car seat in for o…
@sourboysam Sam Ulrich on threads
If $TSLA robotaxis are so cost effective to make that they can sell them at a $30k price point and make a profit, and then operate themselves, why doesn't Tesla just not sell them and operate fleets of robotaxis in big cities? Seems like a weird business model to me
@gwestr Greg Wester on threads
TSLA Q2 earnings call: “Hi, this is Ronald McGullible from Wells Fargo. Great job on Model 2. So, will consumers be able to buy a version with a steering wheel?” “Ehrm, heh heh, you know, in the future there won't be parking lots. And we know roads have to go. So, ehrm, ther…
@emmreef Toots McGee on threads
Elon Musk telling people “Do you want to see a magic trick?” The magic trick:
@szed_ar @szed_ar on threads
Coming 2026 😂, the guy operating opening the doors. Everything at the event was pre-programmed, in blackout conditions, with tele-operation by humans.
@vantazach Zach on threads
I have to admit, it was kind of cool to see the 20 remaining Tesla employees all get out of that box.
@bgrahamdisciple @bgrahamdisciple on threads
I missed this little nugget from Adam Jonas about Tesla Optimus “robots” walking around at the bozotaxi event yesterday: “It is our understanding that these robots were not operating entirely autonomously - but relied on tele-ops (human intervention) so it was more of a demonstra…
@howardoark Bob Boberson on threads
Musk had the Robotaxis event two weeks before the 3rd quarter earnings call (not a coincidence) and the stonk is down $18 anyway. The grifts aren't working like they used to.
@mrlevine Mike Levine on threads
The Tesla taxi cab crowd sounds low energy. Must have been hearing and reading the 1,000 word legal disclaimer that everything they are about to show is fiction.
@waltisfrozen Greg Saunders on threads
It's kinda hilarious watching Elon Musk take credit for the work Tesla's engineers have had to pull 60-80 hour weeks for months to actually accomplish. We all know Elon never puts down Twitter long enough to do any real work at Tesla beyond passing along half-formed ideas to his…
@kbode Karl Bode on threads
See now @arstechnica does it right. The story introduces the latest Tesla vaporware in a pointed way that politely informs the reader musk is historically full of shit. Even manages to subtly remind readers that musk actively funds white supremacists like Stephen Miller. I don…
@joshwolf Hungry Like Josh Wolf on threads
So, Elon Musk announced a new line of cars that will only operate via FSD, which has been in beta for over 3 years now and shows no signs of getting better. I'm sure this is 100% real and will be 100% fine.
@tweet_removed @tweet_removed on threads
You'd think Tesla would just launch robotaxis in the Vegas tunnel tomorrow if the tech actually worked.
@paul_rietschka Paul Rietschka on threads
The fact this tawdry spectacle took place on the lot of a movie studio — a facility owned by a company, Warner Bros., whose business is artifice — is telling. Leon's robot slave will never see production. A two-seat taxi with no steering wheel is a death trap. The bus didn't/d…
@manitou202 David on threads
I agree with the theory that this was supposed to be the Model 2. The low cost EV for mass consumers. But Tesla ran into cost issues, and with the recent dominance by Chinese EV makers in the low cost EV market, they determined they could not be competitive. So instead Tesla s…
@gwestr Greg Wester on threads
Elon just doubled down on: - Hardware 2 from 2016 will be unsupervised - New hardware is just to disrupt AWS I have no words. It wasn't true 10 years ago. It won't be true 10 years from now. And if he is not in prison, he'll be explaining in 4 years that it's coming in 2-3 yea…
@alexjamesfitz Alex Fitzpatrick on threads
Tesla design suffers so much from this overwhelming urge to do something different, even if it's not better.
@jbillinson Josh Billinson on threads
two seat cab with doors you can't open in city traffic 👍
@alexhcranz Alex Cranz on threads
elon musk really knows how to hype people but lets not even pretend to believe any of this will ship when he claims.
@vthallam Venkatesh Thallam on threads
Tesla wasted a nice date 10/10 to announce a Robotaxi that won't be ready until 2027. Smh
@henweb Henry Elliss on threads
The “robot” who walks out with him at the start - awkward handshake and wave - is 1,000% a person in a robot suit.
@chris Chris Messina on threads
Loss likes the Tesla RoboTaxi is a hit! 📉 $TSLA
@bobschooley @bobschooley on threads
I think Elon Musk should be required to replace his 20 bodyguards with his robots before anyone allows one to walk their dog.
@rschmied_66 @rschmied_66 on threads
Most important disclosure made at the Tesla event? Crowd chants “hardware 3...hardware 3!”... answered with “let's not get nuanced here”....with the Dr. Evil laugh of course. Why get nuanced over a $5b-$50b liability?
@shaheenkarimian Shaheen Karimian on threads
lol
@bradmunchen @bradmunchen on threads
I'm told this guy has the most pull with hedge funds that trade $TSLA. Not a good sign.
@billtombrooker Bill Brooker on threads
Tesla has a new project... a taxi that is designed to carry no luggage, that only seats 2, that has wheels that can't handle potholes, and is likely driven by vaporware. It also has no back window so it will feel like being in a coffin and isnt ADA compliant.
@toddanglin Todd Anglin on threads
What are the odds there were humans in the covered rear portion of Cybercab providing drive by wire assistance? It's a common trick in Hollywood to hide human drivers to create the appearance of driverless cars...and they were on a movie set. 🎥🎬 Did Tesla ever open the trunk to…
@reckless1280 Nilay Patel on threads
Even for Tesla standards that Robotaxi event was remarkably light on details, huh
@shaun.guimond Shaun Guimond on threads
The one thing I took from the Tesla's event last night, among the many, are that the company is now fully aligned with Elon. The original Tesla design language is gone and replaced with Elon's dystopic wet dreams. This should be worrying for anyone who owns the cars or the stoc…
@karaswisher Kara Swisher on threads
I said this last night and was called negative by some of Elon's deluded stans, but sparkly jazz hands do not cut it any more with so much actual competition. Robots are kind of cool, except for the uncreative movie derivative name for them, but the Country Bear Jamboree down th…
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on threads
I love that Tesla has a “Full Self Driving” feature and will soon launch “Full Self Driving Unsupervised”. I look forward to “Full Self Driving Unsupervised - We Mean It This Time” launching in 5 years.
@eshumarneedi @eshumarneedi on threads
Safe to say I'm unimpressed. Aside from Musk's marketing BS, this product won't ship until 2030, and when it does, you might be able to buy one for $40,000 at the bare minimum. This entire event was a marketing exercise to appease investors' concerns about Tesla's downfall.
@motorcityadam Adam Cook on threads
1/3 Yes, what Musk did with Tesla's FSD program is, at minimum, no different than what Elizabeth Holmes did at Theranos. — Both used lies to suggest that they had developed a robust safety lifecycle for their products deployed to the public - and neither actually did it. …
@jeffjarvis@mastodon.social Jeff Jarvis on mastodon
Skeptical investors smarter than credulous media: — “Tesla's value drops $60bn after investors fail to hail self-driving ‘Cybercab’ | Analysts criticise lack of detail about the ‘robotaxi’ showcased by CEO Elon Musk” — https://www.theguardian.com/ ...
@binarybits Timothy B. Lee on x
I am surprised Elon said they were going to start driverless trips in California next year. The state is not going to let them do commercial rides without testing first, and reporting from those tests is likely to lead to unflattering comparisons with Waymo.
@nick_anderson_ @nick_anderson_ on x
Self-Driving Taxis? $TSLA #ElonMusk [image]
@rakeshsfnyc Rakesh Agrawal on x
I'm not trusting Tesla robotaxis until at least two years after commercial operations begin. And generally I'm quick to try new tech.
@teroterotero Tero Kuittinen on x
Uber hitting new highs, now up 10.6%. That Tesla event really gave Uber and Lyft a huge boost.
@mgsiegler M.G. Siegler on x
This paragraph was firing on all cylinders, if I do say so myself. Which I am... https://spyglass.org/... [image]
@steinkobbe @steinkobbe on x
Markets not as impressed with the world's slowest robot (that may be remote controlled) pouring drinks into glasses prefilled with ice and lined up perfectly by a human as the Elon fanboys on twitter are [image]
@teroterotero Tero Kuittinen on x
Uber investors displaying base, depraved cruelty. Why would you do this to him? The day after his big night? Why hurt him like this [image]
@thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
$UBER surging to a new all time high today [image]
@zacksjerryrig @zacksjerryrig on x
Personally, I think they should finish the Roadster from 7 years ago before teasing the dorkbus 9000 but to each their own. [image]
@dorseyshaw Dorsey Shaw on x
Elon: “We'll be on Mars in 10 years.” 10 years later... Elon: “Here's a minivan that looks like your great grandmother's toaster.”
@mathewi Mathew Ingram on x
“As usual, Elon Musk is trying to compete in the Tour de France on a tricycle.” Dan O'Dowd, billionaire co-founder of Green Hills Software and founder of the software safety Dawn Project group, was left unimpressed by Tesla's cybercab event https://www.rollingstone.com/ ...
r/economy r on reddit
Tesla's value drops $60bn after investors fail to hail self-driving ‘Cybercab’
r/electricvehicles r on reddit
Elon Musk's Robotaxi is still miles away from overtaking Uber and Waymo in the ride-hailing race

Chronicles