Kuo: mass shipments of second-generation AirPods Max and AirPods with a $99 price target will likely begin in the second half of 2024 or the first half of 2025
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's note extends a pattern he has tracked since 2019, when he flagged Apple's plan to split the AirPods line into an iterative model and a pricier redesign. What has changed since then is competitive pressure: by early 2021 he was already projecting AirPods shipments falling from 90M to 78M units on rising competition, and Counterpoint now sees worldwide share sliding from roughly 50% toward 35%.
A $99 target would put Apple at the entry-level price point where that share erosion is concentrated, while the second-generation AirPods Max addresses the opposite end of a lineup that has gone long stretches without updates — AirPods Pro went three years before its 2022 refresh. Bloomberg's later reporting on USB-C redesigns for AirPods Max and fourth-generation AirPods in 2024 lines up with the same shipping window.
First-order effects
- Apple gains a sub-$100 AirPods SKU aimed directly at the budget segment where rivals are taking share, alongside a refreshed AirPods Max for the premium tier.
Second-order effects
- Competitors holding the low end of the earbuds market face Apple pricing into their core band, pressuring their value proposition just as Counterpoint projects Apple's share falling from ~50% to 35%.
Third-order effects
- If the two-track cadence holds — iterative cheap models plus periodic premium redesigns — AirPods becomes a full price-ladder franchise rather than a premium accessory line, with update cycles set by competition rather than Apple's historical multi-year gaps.
The trend: Apple is responding to eroding AirPods market share by stretching the lineup downmarket to a $99 entry point while refreshing the premium tier on a faster cadence.