Kuo: Apple will launch two new AirPods models in the Q4 2019 - Q1 2020 timeframe, one an iterative update, the other with a new design and higher price
Benjamin Mayo / 9to5Mac :
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's April 2019 note firms up a two-track AirPods roadmap he first sketched in December 2018, when he flagged wireless charging and Bluetooth-spec updates for early 2019 alongside an all-new design model targeted at 2020. What changes here is timing and structure: both tracks now land in the same Q4 2019–Q1 2020 window, with the redesigned model explicitly positioned at a higher price.
That split matters because it turns AirPods from a single-SKU accessory into a tiered lineup. Subsequent coverage validates the arc: the redesigned track became a durable premium line that Kuo later tied to an AirPods Pro 2 launch in late 2022, while the mainstream track slipped — AirPods 3 was pushed to 2021 and ultimately mass production to Q3 2021.
First-order effects
- Apple's earbuds lineup bifurcates on shelves: buyers choosing in the Q4 2019–Q1 2020 window must pick between a refreshed low-cost model and a pricier redesigned one, moving AirPods from one price point to two.
Second-order effects
- A premium tier raises Apple's average selling price but creates internal cannibalization risk — consistent with Kuo's later finding that AirPods shipments fell from 90M in 2020 to 78M in 2021 as competition intensified and the mainstream model's cadence slipped.
- Rivals in the hearables market face a two-front fight: matching Apple's premium feature set while undercutting its entry model on price.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, Apple's accessories follow the iPhone playbook — a flagship tier that carries margin and sets the design language, with iterative models holding volume beneath it — making the premium line, not the base model, the anchor of the category.
- The tiered structure also gives Apple room to let the entry model lag: once a premium line exists, delays to the mainstream refresh cost less strategically, which is exactly how the AirPods 3 timeline played out.
The trend: Hearables are consolidating into tiered hardware architectures where a premium redesign carries margin and design leadership while iterative entry models defend volume.