Internal messages: Twitter's EMEA ad revenue dropped 15% YoY and weekly bookings are down 49%; source: Blue is delayed as Twitter seeks to skirt App Store fees

Revenues are in free fall, employees say. Can Musk turn the tide? — and Zoë Schiffer

Platformer 2022-11-30

Context & Ripple Effects

The internal figures were an early warning that Twitter's advertising weakness extended beyond a single market: days later, coverage showed the company missing US weekly ad targets during the World Cup, and later investor updates reported a roughly 40% December revenue and adjusted-earnings decline.

Blue had already been discussed internally as a broad subscription lever, but estimates indicated it could lose money per US subscriber. Its delay over App Store fees therefore left Twitter managing two monetization problems at once: weaker ad demand and a constrained paid alternative.

First-order effects

Twitter faces an immediate shortfall in EMEA advertising demand, with weekly bookings down sharply while the Blue launch is postponed.
The App Store fee issue directly limits Twitter's flexibility in pricing and distributing Blue, delaying a product intended to diversify revenue.

Second-order effects

Advertisers gain leverage as Twitter repeatedly misses sales targets, reinforcing the revenue pressure later reflected in its 59% year-over-year US ad-revenue drop.
A delayed Blue rollout leaves Twitter more dependent on advertising precisely as bookings weaken, increasing the importance of restoring advertiser demand rather than quickly replacing it with subscriptions.

Third-order effects

Twitter's experience points to a subscription growth gap for ad-supported platforms: paid tiers cannot readily stabilize revenue when platform fees and unit economics constrain rollout.
If the pattern persists, mobile platform payment rules become a material strategic constraint on how social platforms convert users into subscription revenue.

The trend: Social platforms facing ad-market weakness are pursuing subscriptions, but app-store economics can slow the shift from advertising to direct user payments.

Discussion

@zoeschiffer Zoë Schiffer on x
NEW: Twitter is delaying the relaunch of Twitter Blue as it tries to skirt Apple's 30% App Store fees. In the meantime, the company's ad revenue is down 49 percent or more week over week in key markets. My latest with @CaseyNewton: https://www.platformer.news/ ...
@caseynewton Casey Newton on x
Twitter needs ad revenue to keep the company afloat as it tries to pivot toward subscriptions. But ad revenue is down 49 percent or more week over week in key markets, we've learned. And plans to relaunch Blue today have been delayed @ZoeSchiffer + me: https://www.platformer.news…
@sharonodea Sharon O'Dea on x
If you were wondering why the new Twitter Blue didn't launch on the 29th as promised. It's cos EIon's realised it might be a bit more complicated than he first thought. Who could have predicted that eh? https://www.theverge.com/...
@gergelyorosz Gergely Orosz on x
At the same time, @CaseyNewton at @platformer reports how Twitter's advertising revenue - which was around ~$4.5B/yr - is currently in free-fall: https://www.platformer.news/ ... However, on acquisition Twitter had $6B in cash. With costs reduced so much, there's no risk of bankr…
@rhymestyle @rhymestyle on x
“Everything is Fine” When I was in the tech world, I always saw this. Everything would be a burning dumpster fire crashing but externally you're still saying “it's fine and better than ever”. https://twitter.com/...
@carnage4life @carnage4life on x
It would be a great example for all the CEOs who're salivating to run their companies like Elon runs Twitter to see the business results of that style of leadership. I'm sure it would be quite motivational. 🙃
@arawnsley Adam Rawnsley on x
Predictions are a mug's games and I won't make one but here's some interesting context. If you try to circumvent Apple's App Store payments rules, you'll serve yourself up on a ban hammer platter. I doubt Apple would ban Twitter outright just based on their lack of moderation. ht…
@_bobbyfoster Bobby Foster on x
Literally every platform any human signs up for has a fee. Twitch, YouTube, App Store, patreon, Etsy. There's no way he's surprised about this. https://twitter.com/...
@scottnover Scott Nover on x
Really dumb to fuck up your main source of revenue (92%) before you can even start to pivot to another. Even dumber when you realize this is all for $5.60 a month after app store fees. https://twitter.com/...
@chrismessina Chris Messina on x
The math won't math if Elon wants @TwitterBlue @verified users to become the company's primary revenue stream if Apple takes 30% of the $8/monthly fee. Nor will the pot be sweetened for creators if Apple takes 30% of @Subscriptions payouts too. https://www.theinformation.com/ ...
@drewharwell Drew Harwell on x
So clear that this is all the activists', Apple's, the media's, the woke mob's, the spam bots' and the coddled workers' fault https://twitter.com/...
@jamesrbuk James Ball on x
At least Google and Android exists as an ecosystem entirely free of any payment to Apple! Elon will surely discover it with delight! https://twitter.com/...
@anshelsag Anshel Sag on x
LMFAO this explains why he's so mad at Apple https://twitter.com/...
@frankluntz Frank Luntz on x
Elon seems surprised that Apple takes a 30% cut of in-app purchases. (A policy that's been in place for over a decade.) Normally, executives do their research to learn this stuff far in advance rather than the week before they rollout a new feature. https://twitter.com/...
@jenntakahashi Jenn Takahashi on x
Elon has turned brands off SO MUCH that Twitter would need *1 in 4 active users to subscribe to Twitter Blue* just to make up the lost ad revenue 😮‍💨 https://www.platformer.news/ ... via @platformer @CaseyNewton @ZoeSchiffer
@mattnavarra Matt Navarra on x
Twitter News Updates: - Twitter's EMEA ad revenue has dropped 15% YoY - Weekly Twitter ad bookings are down 49% - Twitter Blue relaunch delayed as Twitter seeks to avoid App Store fees https://open.substack.com/...
@garylegum Gary Legum on x
No problem, he'll just develop a phone, an OS, and an entire app store of his own in time to stop this whole place from augering in. https://twitter.com/...
@jason_kint Jason Kint on x
Advertising revenue down 50% *week over week*.... That's hard to do. Seriously.
@thor_benson Thor Benson on x
Like watching a car crash in slow motion https://twitter.com/...
@vyyyper @vyyyper on x
I'm confused. He literally only a few weeks ago released the New Twitter Blue on iOS only.....so now he's trying to avoid Apple's 30% fee??? And how come NOBODY talks about how Google takes the same damn 30% cut from apps in their play store??? https://twitter.com/...
@edzitron Ed Zitron on x
David Sacks getting so mad his boss is being scorned by apple that he's become an antitrust guy https://twitter.com/...
@ozindie Adrian on x
Holy heck, I wasn't aware of this change. “Effective November 23, 2022, Twitter is no longer enforcing the COVID-19 misleading information policy.” Source: https://transparency.twitter.com/ ... Hat tip: @TheDad_au CC: @Asher_Wolf https://twitter.com/...
@repkenbuck Rep. Ken Buck on x
This is why we need to end the App Store duopoly before the end of this year. No one should have this kind of market power. https://twitter.com/...
@jdvance1 J.D. Vance on x
This would be the most raw exercise of monopoly power in a century, and no civilized country should allow it. https://twitter.com/...
@pt Parker on x
Say what you will about the Fox Industrial Complex, but when it decides an issue matters, you see policy movement. We need to frame more good ideas as owning the lib activities. Like, maybe if we all become nudists bc global warming we can get geoengineering to dim the sun? 🤔 htt…
@r0wdy_ @r0wdy_ on x
Hell yeah own the libs by ending the monopoly on phone app gatekeeping https://twitter.com/...
@karaswisher Kara Swisher on x
Frontloading a fight with @tim_cook with specious nonsense isn't going to work. Why? For one, he's not a manic toddler hopped up on Twinkies and weaponry cosplay. Plus, no advertiser like to spend their marketing money in Thunderdome of toxic asininity. https://twitter.com/...
@jamesrbuk James Ball on x
Musk's making life *really* easy for Apple here. https://twitter.com/...
@tomfitton Tom Fitton on x
As @Apple is a competitor of @ElonMusk's various businesses, it would seem any move by Apple to remove @Twitter from app store would raise a host of legal issues. Same goes for @Google.
@warrendavidson Warren Davidson on x
The duopoly of Apple and Google app stores merits serious antitrust review and corresponding regulatory oversight to address the lack of market forces at work in this crucial chokepoint shaping America's innovation economy. https://twitter.com/...
@evan_greer @evan_greer on x
I promise you we can oppose Musk's reckless Twitter changes and trolling and oppose Apple's draconian monopoly abuses and authoritarian-loving policies at the same time.
@cat_zakrzewski Cat Zakrzewski on x
These meetings could get awkward for Cook as Musk stokes Republicans' concerns about the App Store https://twitter.com/...
@karlbode Karl Bode on x
it's just gonna be six straight months of people who could not give any less of a shit about corporate power or antitrust reform, pretending to care about corporate power and antitrust reform https://www.forbes.com/...
@forbes @forbes on x
DeSantis Attacks Apple For Allegedly Threatening To Remove Musk-Run Twitter From App Store—Joining Other Republicans https://www.forbes.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@ganeshchetan Ganesh Chetan on x
Any entity - politician or a corporation if they become too powerful is dangerous for society and markets. https://twitter.com/...

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