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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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TSMC, Intel, and others are asking for preferential access to components amid the chip shortage, arguing that giving semiconductor makers priority could ease it

Intel and TSMC are looking to boost chip output amid supercharged demand, but getting the equipment to do so requires increasing patience

Wall Street Journal

Context & Ripple Effects

This request is the escalation of a squeeze documented since early 2021, when surging laptop, 5G, and car-chip demand began pushing prices up across the industry. Chipmakers had already cooperated with Washington once, handing over supply-chain data at the US government's request in late 2021; now Intel and TSMC are asking the market itself for priority treatment on the components they need to expand output.

The deeper problem the article names is timing: new fab capacity takes years to bring online, so even funded expansion cannot relieve a shortage quickly — the classic structural mismatch between where capacity was built and where demand landed.

First-order effects

  • Equipment and component suppliers face direct pressure to re-rank their order books in favor of semiconductor makers, effectively making other industrial customers wait behind Intel and TSMC.

Second-order effects

  • Automakers and device makers — the buyers hit hardest by the shortage's roots in cutting-edge focus and stockpiling — risk being deprioritized further if chipmakers' requests are granted, extending their wait for parts even as fabs expand.
  • Government money raises the stakes: the billions in planned US CHIPS Act subsidies depend on these companies actually building capacity, so Washington has an incentive to back their access claims.

Third-order effects

  • The cycle cuts both ways — by late 2023 TSMC had swung from chasing equipment to telling major suppliers to delay high-end tool deliveries as demand cooled, suggesting priority-access regimes amplify overordering at the top of the cycle and stranded supplier capacity at the bottom.
  • If preferential access becomes standard practice during shortages, allocation shifts from price signals toward political and strategic weight, entrenching the largest subsidized players and squeezing smaller chip buyers.

The trend: Semiconductor shortages are pushing capacity allocation away from open markets toward politically weighted priority systems, with government subsidy programs reinforcing the biggest players' claims on constrained inputs.

Discussion

  • @gdalmiathinks Gaurav Dalmia on x
    Negative feedback loop: The global chip shortage has a new pain point. A lack of chips needed for the machines that make chips. Crazy! https://www.wsj.com/...