While Windows 10 may be a more “serious” OS built for “real” work, the iPad's embrace of a 2-in-1 form factor with the Magic Keyboard may harm Surface sales

Apple's Magic Keyboard apes Microsoft's theory of computing, but it's also a really big deal.

Windows Central 2020-03-19 Daniel Rubino

Context & Ripple Effects

Microsoft spent years building Surface around one theory of computing: a tablet that snaps into a laptop via a kickstand and Type Cover, and by 2018 the company finally had what coverage called a coherent and appealing lineup of PCs, desktops, and tablets. Apple's answer until now was to keep the iPad a consumption device with a keyboard bolted on — even while quietly selling Microsoft Office 365 as an accessory for the iPad Pro, conceding the productivity-software layer.

The Magic Keyboard changes the posture, not just the accessory: with a trackpad and a floating screen design, the iPad shape-shifts between media consumption and white-collar professional use — which is precisely the job description Surface was created to own. And Apple had already widened the funnel by making every non-mini iPad compatible with a Smart Keyboard for the first time in 2019.

First-order effects

Surface's core pitch — tablet plus attachable keyboard equals laptop replacement — is no longer differentiated, so buyers weighing an iPad against a Surface Pro are comparing near-identical form factors instead of categories.
Apple converts existing iPad owners into potential laptop-replacement customers overnight, expanding its addressable market at the exact tier where Surface lives.

Second-order effects

Microsoft is forced to compete on what remains distinct — Windows itself, desktop-class software, and price — rather than on hinge-and-kickstand industrial design that Apple has now matched.
Since Apple already distributes Microsoft's own Office 365 on iPad, the productivity argument that once favored Surface weakens too, pushing Microsoft toward services like cloud gaming and subscription bundles to defend the platform.

Third-order effects

If the 2-in-1 converges into commodity hardware on both platforms, the durable battleground shifts from form factor to operating system lock-in and services revenue — the same logic behind Microsoft leaning harder on Game Pass and cloud delivery.
A converged tablet-laptop category pressures both companies' pricing floors: premium detachables stop commanding a design premium once neither vendor owns the shape.

The trend: Tablets and laptops are converging on a single 2-in-1 form factor, shifting platform competition from hardware design to operating systems and services.

Discussion

@stroughtonsmith Steve Troughton-Smith on x
I gotta say, when iPad looks like this, it's a lot easier to imagine it being repurposed as a Developer Transition Kit for an ARM macOS transition via a special developer-only OS we can flash. Much easier than building a bespoke machine for it https://twitter.com/...
@inputmag Input on x
The iPad Pro is now a... Surface? https://www.inputmag.com/...
@mkbhd Marques Brownlee on x
Can Apple please just make Final Cut Pro for the iPad already?
@brianfagioli Brian Fagioli on x
@Techmeme @Daniel_Rubino May harm? No, no, no, Mr. Rubino. Make no mistake, it will harm. Now that iPad has legit trackpad/mouse support, Surface is over. iPadOS better serves the modern home computer user than Windows 10 does.
@daniel_rubino Daniel Rubino on x
Apple finally did it. They went all-in on making the iPad Pro a Surface Pro. Sure, we can laugh at the $350 Magic Keyboard, but it's likely to hit Surface Pro sales too esp. for regular people. Some thoughts: https://www.windowscentral.com/ ...
@windowscentral @windowscentral on x
While it's easy to tease Apple for copying the Surface Pro paradigm with its new $350 👀 Magic Keyboard @daniel_rubino explains why it's a threat to 2-in-1 PCs. At least Microsoft is already on to the NBT, we hope: Surface Neo https://www.windowscentral.com/ ...
@thedannyles Danny Les on x
Still won't buy one until they finally put OS X on as the operating system. https://twitter.com/...
@backlon Dieter Bohn on x
I tried to make a list of all the things the new iPad mouse cursor does and all the gestures you can make on the trackpad. It seems like a lot (it is I suppose), but no more than on a Mac. Just new! And weird? https://www.theverge.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@benbajarin Ben Bajarin on x
This looks like an amazing keyboard for iPad. That hinge must be something to prop it up. Also, watch this video on the Trackpad. https://www.theverge.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
PPS/ Spent time using Magic TrackPad2. Don't be confused—this is not bolting an old school idea of a mouse on iPadOS. More like “Mouse 3.0” and an evolution of the macOS trackpad. Much more to think about than “precision pointing.” Bigger than IntelliMouse Wheel 25+ yrs ago.
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
21/ Adding a trackpad to iPad was done in a way that reimagined not just the idea of a pointer, but in the entire package—hw & sw. That's what makes this interesting. To think of it as capitulation would be to do so independent of how computing has evolved over decades. // END
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
15/ PC Servers started to add attributes of mainframes. At first this seemed totally crazy—redundant power supplies, RAID, multi processors, etc. THAT was crazy stuff for those $1M mainframes. Pretty soon at h/w level telling a PC Server from a MF became a vocabulary exercise. ht…
@tomwarren Tom Warren on x
Apple 8 years ago: “You can converge a toaster and a refrigerator, but it won't please anyone.” Apple in 2020: the iPad is now a laptop https://twitter.com/...
@viticci Federico Viticci on x
As a follow-up to my question about whether third-party trackpads can support iPadOS' new multitouch gestures, looks like the answer is “yes”. Logitech just announced an iPad keyboard with a multitouch trackpad. 🙌 https://www.macstories.net/... https://twitter.com/...
@backlon Dieter Bohn on x
The headlines feature on the iPad Pro itself are a new processor and a LiDAR camera. And Apple is still very much Apple: “It works at the photon level, operates at nanosecond speeds.” Yes, that's how lasers work 🤣
@pirafrank Francesco Pira on x
Evolution. Apple has evolved (or better is still evolving) the laptop. A device that has it all: Cellular, GPS, back cameras, AR sensors, TrueDepth cameras and touch/pencil/keyboard/trackpad input. Pointless backporting to the Mac https://twitter.com/...
@john_henry John Henry on x
Holy shit, an iPad with LiDAR? I'm so excited to see what y'all build with this https://www.apple.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
6/ The first one of these transitions I remember is the introduction of portable computers. Out of the gate, these were way less powerful than “PCs”. The debate over whether a portable can “replace” a “PC” was in full force. https://twitter.com/...
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
2/ Hardware evolves just like software but we don't often see it the same way. We're used to talking about the cycle software bundling and unbundling, but hardware does the same thing. Every new generation of hardware begins this cycle anew.
@deezel Darin Dimitroff on x
Can't stop thinking that Microsoft had it nailed with the Surface hardware-wise. The OS had to be rooted in a modern, touch-based metaphor though. Apple's best decision was making a big iPhone and not a touchscreen Mac first, in retrospect. https://twitter.com/...
@bschmitt Bertrand Schmitt on x
Smart analysis from @stevesi on how to look at the addition of a true trackpad support for the iPad #iPadOS https://twitter.com/...
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
Right now, the LIDAR on the new iPad Pro seems like a major hardware addition without any real new functionality to take advantage of it. I imagine we'll see actual features for it with iOS 14 and when the iPhone gets it.
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
I'm also surprised they are launching this iPad Pro with an A12 rather than an A13 or A14. Will be interesting to see how it compares to the speed of the current iPad Pro.
@rjbritt071 Ryan Britt on x
This is a beautiful thread about how (in general) new platforms almost always reimagine the best parts of the platforms that came before. https://twitter.com/...
@waltmossberg Walt Mossberg on x
Another enlightening thread from @stevesi. https://twitter.com/...
@caro_milanesi Carolina Milanesi on x
This video just convinced me that as long as #MicrosoftOffice gets support for the new trackpad it's bye bye MacBook for me. I was already using the iPadPro for half the time https://www.youtube.com/...
@jamesrath James Rath on x
The @verge has a video ft. Craig Federighi showing how TouchPad support works in iPadOS and gotta say I'm excited about this. It looks very thoughtfully implemented for the tablet experience. 🤤 Can't wait to try this with Zoom, Speak Screen, etc. #a11y https://www.theverge.com/..…
@appleterminal Apple Terminal on x
In a rare appearance outside of #WWDC, Apple's Senior VP of Software Engineering in a brand new video with @TheVerge shows off #iPadOS 13.4 on the brand new #iPadPro equipped with the Magic Keyboard and Trackpack. Watch the legend himself here: https://www.theverge.com/... https:…
@markgurman Mark Gurman on x
An Apple keynote demo in the age of coronavirus https://www.theverge.com/... https://twitter.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@bzamayo Benjamin Mayo on x
Craig demo video omg https://www.theverge.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
16/ And here we are today where server to stripped the very elements rooted in PC (like monitors and keyboards!) Guess what? That's a mainframe! In twitter, this would be: Mainframe, you've invented a mainframe.
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
18/ So here we are today with an iPad that has a trackpad. Many are chuckling at the capitulation that the iPad was never a real computer and finally Apple admitted it. Laptop, Apple has invented the laptop.
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
13/ When first PCs began to do server tasks, they did those in an entirely different way than mainframes that were servers of the day. They used commodity desktop PCs—literally the same as a desktop running in an office. That was the big advantage—cheap, ubiquitous, open!
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
20/ The PC server everyone uses in the cloud today is no mainframe. It is vastly cheaper, more accessible, more scaleable, runs different software (yes people will fight me on these in some way, but the pedantic argument isn't the point).
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
7/ Quickly the form factor of portable evolved and with that came all sorts of labels: luggable, portable, notebook, desktop, sub-notebook, and so on. This continued all the way until the introduction of “ultra-books”. If you're a maker these labels are annoying at best. (1987) h…
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
10/ Then we wake up one day and look at the “new” form and realize it seems to have morphed into the old form, capabilities and all. All along the way, the new form is editing, innovating, and reimagining how those old things should be expressed in the new one.
@stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
11/ These innovations can change software or hardware. But this is where hardware devices like USB come from—the needs of the new form dictate new types of hardware even if it solves the same problem again. #innovation.
@appleinsider @appleinsider on x
A forthcoming update to #Apple's #Pages, #Numbers, and #Keynote apps for iOS will include new #iWork features that take advantage of the new trackpad support, plus #iCloud folder sharing. https://appleinsider.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@jsnell Jason Snell on x
Wow, this iPad cursor stuff is really great. Like, beyond what I hoped for iOS 14. And it's here today (GM) / next week (full release).
@jsnell Jason Snell on x
@robbyburns Mac > iPad is not really something you can do easily. (The other way around, yes, via Catalyst.) Have a hard time thinking they'd spend time rewriting their apps but not considering the touch UI to broaden their market
@geoffreyfowler Geoffrey A. Fowler on x
Weird flex by Apple to introduce two new products amid a global meltdown. Good explainer here by @ReedAlbergotti & @heatherkelly It's all about Apple's ability to leverage size, power and cash. https://www.washingtonpost.com/ ...

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