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OpenAI projects hitting $200B in revenue in 2030, with R&D costs amounting to ~45% of that, or ~$90B; Big Tech's R&D costs are currently 10% to 25% of revenue

Seems like MANY users have to start paying and a lot of bonds / IPO funds.  [embedded post] Ed Zitron / @edzitron.com : Also - it is shocking and appalling that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signed off on the revenue projections OpenAI leaked, because she is affirming that they project to make *more revenue than NVIDIA and TSMC* in the next four years.  Utterly ridiculous.  [image] Corey Quinn / @quinnypig.com : Five year projections for a startup are exercises in wishcasting.  [embedded post] Tau-Mu Yi / @taumuyi : $200B in revenue by 2030 is a lot currently OpenAI revenue is ~$10B.  [embedded post] Forums: r/OpenAI : OpenAI projects $200B in revenue in 2030, with R&D spending hitting ~45% of that, or ~$90B; R&D costs of Alphabet and others are currently 10%-20% of revenue

The Information

Discussion

  • @rwang888 Ryan Wang on x
    OpenAI's revenue this year is approximately $13 billion, with about $20 billion in cash on hand. Claiming its revenue could grow to $200 billion by 2030, it signed a $300 billion guaranteed purchase agreement with Oracle for the next five years. Oracle, with only $11 billion in
  • @wesbury Brian Wesbury on x
    OpenAI is hoping to have $13 billion in “revenue” this year. Fantastic...good for them. But they just signed a deal to spend $300 billion over the next five years, and the market takes it as gospel! Feeling a little 1999-ish.
  • @kakashiii111 @kakashiii111 on x
    After gathering all the publicly available information on OpenAI's financial commitments and projected losses, the picture is... impressive: * Broadcom Custom Chips: $10B (next year) * Oracle: $300B (5 years) * CoreWeave: $12B (5 years) * Projected Losses: $115B (4 years, The [im…
  • @glenngabe Glenn Gabe on x
    R&D at 45% of revenue? -> OpenAI projects $200B in revenue in 2030, with R&D spending hitting ~45% of that, or ~$90B; R&D costs of Alphabet and others are currently 10%-20% of revenue “No other major company spends three-quarters of its revenue on computing and technical [image]
  • @garymarcus Gary Marcus on x
    Mark my words, this week marks peak bubble. Oracle just went up $300B on what appears to be a non-binding deal with OpenAI. •OpenAI doesn't have $300 billion dollars •They don't have anywhere near $300 billion dollars •By their own (presumably optimistic) projection, they
  • @amir Amir Efrati on x
    According to The Information's analysis, in 2030, when OpenAI projects an astounding $200 billion in revenue, its R&D costs would amount to about 45% of its revenue, or roughly $90 billion.... [image]
  • @jschuurmd Jay Schuur on bluesky
    I wondered this when announced.  How does a company (OpenAI) that is losing money and has relatively small revenue ($12B) pay Oracle $300B over 5 years???  —  Seems like MANY users have to start paying and a lot of bonds / IPO funds.  [embedded post]
  • @edzitron.com Ed Zitron on bluesky
    Also - it is shocking and appalling that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signed off on the revenue projections OpenAI leaked, because she is affirming that they project to make *more revenue than NVIDIA and TSMC* in the next four years.  Utterly ridiculous.  [image]
  • @quinnypig.com Corey Quinn on bluesky
    Five year projections for a startup are exercises in wishcasting.  [embedded post]
  • @taumuyi Tau-Mu Yi on bluesky
    $200B in revenue by 2030 is a lot currently OpenAI revenue is ~$10B.  [embedded post]
  • r/OpenAI r on reddit
    OpenAI projects $200B in revenue in 2030, with R&D spending hitting ~45% of that, or ~$90B; R&D costs of Alphabet and others are currently 10%-20% of revenue