Kuo expects Apple to mass produce a Vision Pro with M5 in Q3 2025, a Vision Air in Q3 2027, a Vision Pro with a new design and XR glasses in H2 2028, and more
In a blog post today, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo detailed his updated roadmap forecast for Apple's headset and smart glasses markets.
Context & Ripple Effects
Earlier coverage had narrowed Apple’s near-term headset path to an M5-equipped Vision Pro while placing a lower-cost model beyond 2027; this forecast supplies a fuller sequence after that previously reported delay to a cheaper Vision Pro.
The roadmap also sits alongside reporting that Apple could refresh Vision Pro with a new chip and strap before pursuing a lighter, cheaper model in 2027 the reported 2025 Vision Pro refresh and 2027 lighter model. The key significance is the proposed separation of premium headsets, a lighter Vision Air tier, and XR glasses rather than a single successor.
First-order effects
- Kuo’s forecast sets a public expectation that Apple’s next near-term Vision hardware step is a chip refresh, not an immediately lower-priced redesign.
- It gives the Vision Air name a projected role as Apple’s later, lighter headset tier, while assigning the redesigned Pro and separate glasses to a still more distant phase.
Second-order effects
- If Apple follows this sequencing, suppliers and developers would face a prolonged premium-Vision-Pro period before a potentially broader-access headset category arrives.
- The split between Vision Air and XR glasses would require Apple’s ecosystem to distinguish immersive-headset use cases from lighter wearable experiences, rather than treating them as one product category.
Third-order effects
- The roadmap points to a staged spatial-computing portfolio: maintain a premium platform first, then expand into lighter hardware and glasses only after successive product cycles.
- Because these are analyst projections and the reported timing differs across prior coverage, the durable signal is direction—not the specific production dates: Apple appears to be exploring multiple form factors rather than betting on one headset design.
The trend: This is one data point in the AI hardware strategy split, as Apple appears to segment spatial devices by capability and form factor over successive generations.