Kaiko: the share of BTC-USD trades in US market hours has now climbed to ~53% from 40% in 2021, with crypto liquidity back at levels seen before FTX's collapse
- Bitcoin trading versus dollar is more concentrated in US hours — Open interest in CME futures for Bitcoin, Ether scaled records
Context & Ripple Effects
Kaiko’s earlier data showed Bitcoin activity becoming less evenly distributed across the week: weekend trading’s share fell to 16% in 2024, from a 28% high in 2019. The latest reading extends that shift from calendar timing to geographic market hours.
The return of liquidity to pre-FTX levels marks a recovery from the disruption that saw exchange volume surge during FTX’s disintegration. Record CME Bitcoin and Ether futures open interest adds a regulated derivatives-market dimension to that recovery.
First-order effects
- BTC-USD price formation and available liquidity are now more concentrated during US market hours, making that session more consequential for traders executing large orders.
- CME’s record open interest in Bitcoin and Ether futures gives market participants a deeper regulated venue for derivatives exposure alongside the spot-liquidity recovery.
Second-order effects
- Market makers and trading desks have a stronger incentive to allocate capital, staffing and hedging activity to the US session, potentially widening the relative liquidity gap at other times.
- Exchanges and venues competing for institutional flow must contend with a market in which CME-linked derivatives activity and US-hour spot trading increasingly reinforce one another.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern persists, Bitcoin’s always-open market may operate more like conventional finance: trading remains continuous, but liquidity and price discovery are concentrated in regulated-market sessions.
- The recovery in aggregate liquidity need not mean liquidity is broadly distributed; its concentration could make access and execution quality increasingly dependent on venue and trading hour.
The trend: Crypto market structure is shifting toward institutionally oriented, US-session-centered liquidity and regulated derivatives participation.