Kaiko: the proportion of bitcoin traded over weekends has fallen to 16% in 2024 so far, down from a 28% high in 2019, a trend likely accelerated by bitcoin ETFs
Benjamin Taubman / Bloomberg :
Context & Ripple Effects
Kaiko's data adds a time-of-day dimension to the market-structure changes seen around US spot bitcoin ETFs. In related coverage, the ETF launch was also associated with Bybit's rise to the second-largest exchange by market share, showing that new institutional access can reshape where as well as when bitcoin trades.
The weekend decline sits alongside a broader shift toward conventional market hours: later Kaiko data found a larger share of BTC-USD trading during US market hours.
First-order effects
- Weekend trading now accounts for a smaller share of bitcoin activity, while weekday trading accounts for more of the market's trading pattern.
- The report identifies bitcoin ETFs as a likely accelerator, linking the timing shift to trading channels that operate around traditional market schedules.
Second-order effects
- Exchanges and market makers face stronger incentives to concentrate bitcoin liquidity, staffing, and execution capacity during weekday US trading hours rather than treat weekend activity as equally central.
- Venue competition may increasingly turn on access to ETF-adjacent flows and weekday liquidity, extending the redistribution that accompanied Bybit's ETF-era market-share gain.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern persists, bitcoin's always-open market may become more synchronized with the calendar of conventional financial markets, even as the underlying asset remains continuously tradable.
- That synchronization could make traditional-market closures more consequential for crypto liquidity and price formation; the data alone does not establish how durable the shift will be.
The trend: Bitcoin market structure is becoming more institutionalized, with ETF-linked participation concentrating activity into established financial-market hours.