Kaiko: in the past year, Binance's bitcoin trading share outside the US fell from 81.3% to 55.3%, OKX's rose from 3% to 7.3%, and Bybit's rose from 2% to 9.3%
Context & Ripple Effects
Binance’s reduced share extends a pattern visible when its share fell sharply after a CFTC lawsuit and the end of some zero-fee trading. The new figures show that the lost activity is being distributed across major centralized rivals rather than disappearing from the market.
This matters because bitcoin trading liquidity is becoming less dependent on one offshore venue: OKX and Bybit together gained meaningful share while Binance remained the largest platform in Kaiko’s measure.
First-order effects
- Binance’s share of bitcoin trading outside the US declined from 81.3% to 55.3% over the year, reducing its dominance of this specific liquidity pool.
- OKX and Bybit gained immediate relevance for traders seeking non-US bitcoin liquidity, reaching 7.3% and 9.3% share, respectively.
Second-order effects
- Binance faces greater pressure to defend trading activity through its market structure, pricing, and liquidity offerings as rival venues attract more order flow.
- As volume spreads across exchanges, traders and liquidity providers must place greater weight on execution quality and cross-venue access rather than treating Binance as the default offshore market.
Third-order effects
- If the redistribution persists, offshore crypto trading could shift from a single-venue structure toward a more competitive, fragmented liquidity market.
- The episode fits a broader legitimacy and concentration challenge for crypto platforms: market share can move quickly when a dominant exchange’s operating conditions change.
The trend: Bitcoin trading is gradually dispersing from a dominant offshore exchange toward a larger set of centralized venues competing for liquidity.