A bear case for the AI industry, as the sectors LLMs seem capable of disrupting so far, like writing, digital art, and programming help, are not very lucrative
Gemini and the supply paradox of AI — Another day, another huge new AI model revealed. This time it's Google's Gemini.
The Intrinsic Perspective Erik Hoel
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- I've seen a lot of bad takes about AI but this is one of the worst in a while. — It's argument is that the industry won't be lucrative because the jobs it's disrupting like writers and artists aren't lucrative. — Just because journalists and artists are the ones complaining about AI online, the assumption is they're the only ones affected. … @carnage4life@mas.to · Dare Obasanjo
- >> If the AI industry ever goes through an economic bust sometime in the next decade I think it'll be because there are fewer ways than first thought to squeeze substantial profits out of tasks that are relatively commonplace already. — https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com / ... #AI #LLM #SupplyParadox @peterbutler@mas.to · Peter Butler
- The industries AI is disrupting are not lucrative Hacker News
Discussion
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@fxshaw
Frank Shaw
on threads
It's a take all right.
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@harbourfordyce.bsky.social
Harbour Fordyce
on bluesky
Ironically, human labor is still cheaper when it comes to creativity...? (Or is there something about, oh, I don't know, competence?) [embedded post]
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@erikphoel
Erik Hoel
on x
This explains why economic disruption is low despite the success of the tech... because you can only automate adding to data sets, like writing, that are already massively oversupplied. Why? Because AIs basically *just* scale off of the supply-size of the data set! [image]
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@suhail
@suhail
on x
The internet is *flooded* with AI generated stuff. It's going to be 100x next year.
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@danielcanueto
Daniel Cañueto
on x
“Call it the supply paradox of AI: the easier it is to train an AI to do something, the less economically valuable that thing is. After all, the huge supply of the thing is how the AI got so good in the first place.”
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@erikphoel
Erik Hoel
on x
Examples: AIs are good at writing Reddit comments, but producing Reddit comments is worth almost nothing. AIs are good at generating digital art, but the market for digital art is tiny. AIs are good at writing essays, but it's extremely hard to make a living writing essays.
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@dhh
@dhh
on x
I haven't found much use for AI in full-on writing large bodies for code for me, but I continue to be astounded by its ability to be a superb pair programmer. It knows all the APIs, we never need to Google anything, and its suggestions are often delightful. A+.
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@ichbinilya
Ilya Lozovsky
on x
An interesting take by @erikphoel on whether AI is about to take all our jobs (and moneys). In short: The things it's best at, at least for now, aren't lucrative. https://open.substack.com/...
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@roberthoglund
Robert Höglund
on x
Spot on. “Call it the supply paradox of AI: the easier it is to train an AI to do something, the less economically valuable that thing is. After all, the huge supply of the thing is how the AI got so good in the first place.” https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com / ...
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@melmitchell1
Melanie Mitchell
on x
Very interesting essay from @erikphoel throwing a bit of cold water on the economics of generative AI. https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com / ...
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@erikphoel
Erik Hoel
on x
Is generative AI doomed to disrupt only low-revenue industries, like writing and digital art? My latest on the supply paradox: AIs get good because of massive data sets... but adding to the data set isn't lucrative, as there was already so much of it! https://www.theintrinsicpers…