Google to ‘double down’ on Android tablets in 2012, says Andy Rubin
It's no secret that Android tablet sales have lagged far behind Apple's iPad, and Google's planning to do something about it. In a meeting with reporters today at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona …
Context & Ripple Effects
Rubin's pledge at Mobile World Congress is a reversal of Google's own earlier posture: back in September 2010 the company was sending mixed messages about whether Android was ready for tablets at all, and Honeycomb-era devices then began to show traction with fourth-quarter 2011 shipment gains against the iPad. The gap remains wide enough that Rubin is now committing publicly to a heavier 2012 push.
The timing is delicate because of Motorola: Rubin says Google will build a 'firewall' keeping Android separate from the handset maker he led the charge to acquire, while insisting he will have nothing to do with Motorola once the $12 billion deal closes — a sale that Microsoft and Apple are rumored, though unconfirmed, to be trying to block.
First-order effects
- Android tablet makers get a public commitment from Google to prioritize the form factor in 2012, aimed squarely at closing the gap with Apple's iPad.
- Rubin's firewall pledge is meant to reassure Samsung, Asus and other hardware partners that owning Motorola will not turn Google into their competitor.
Second-order effects
- Tablet OEMs must decide whether Rubin's reassurance holds or whether a Google-owned Motorola eventually gets preferential access to Android releases — the same trust question that shaped smartphone licensing.
- With forecasts pointing to 180 million tablets by 2014, Amazon's Kindle Fire-style low-price model pressures Android partners on margin even as Google pushes volume.
Third-order effects
- If the double-down works, tablet software economics follow the phone playbook — Google monetizing users through services rather than device sales, consistent with its reported plan to make roughly $10 per Android user in 2012.
- A credible Android tablet alternative would force regulators and courts weighing the Motorola acquisition to treat Google as both platform gatekeeper and device maker, sharpening antitrust scrutiny of the combined company.
The trend: Google is moving from ambivalence to full commitment on tablets, betting that platform scale plus the pending Motorola acquisition can erode the iPad's head start.