Boom: Forecast Calls for 180 Million Tablets by 2014
Wow... I know we had shifted into a multi-touch world, but even I had underestimated the growing popularity of tablets. At CES earlier this year, more than a few tablets were on display. Yesterday, Google announced the Android Honeycomb OS for tablets.
Context & Ripple Effects
The tablet market has moved from curiosity to category in under twelve months: the CES 2011 show floor was crowded with Honeycomb, Windows 7 and other slate designs, signaling that every major hardware maker intends to ship one. The day before this forecast landed, Google confirmed Android Honeycomb as its first OS built specifically for tablets, giving those devices a common software foundation.
Against that backdrop, a projection of 180 million tablets in use by 2014 reads as the analyst community pricing in a genuinely new product class rather than extrapolating iPad sales alone — and it sets a benchmark that vendors' shipment numbers will now be measured against.
First-order effects
- Google's Honeycomb announcement gives the dozens of CES tablet makers an answer to the question of what OS they will ship beyond Windows 7, turning the slate flood from concept hardware into shippable products on an Android timeline.
Second-order effects
- Apple now faces its first multi-vendor tablet challenge rather than a string of isolated competitors, while component suppliers — displays, touch controllers, application processors — see demand forecasts built around a 180-million-unit installed base instead of a single-vendor ramp.
Third-order effects
- If adoption tracks anywhere near that trajectory, touch-optimized tablets begin competing with netbooks and low-end laptops for the same buyer dollar, forcing PC makers to treat slates as a core line of business rather than a side bet — though whether Honeycomb's software ecosystem matures fast enough to sustain it remains the open variable.
The trend: Personal computing is splitting into a multi-device world where touch-first tablets become a distinct volume category alongside PCs, with Android positioning itself as the volume alternative to Apple's integrated model.