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TEXXR

Chronicles

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Sources: OpenAI's Q2 sales grew 18% QoQ to $6.7B as its loss jumped 32% to $12.3B; Anthropic's sales grew 2x+ to $11.6B as it swung to a small operating profit

The ChatGPT-maker's revenue disappointed some investors, although the company told them its growth accelerated in the third quarter

Wall Street Journal

Context & Ripple Effects

In May, OpenAI still held an approximately $1B quarterly revenue lead over Anthropic, even as its adjusted operating margin was deeply negative and ChatGPT user growth had stalled. The Q2 figures reverse the relative revenue picture while separating the companies on profitability.

The prior report that OpenAI's operating margin had deteriorated further established the cost problem; the new loss figure and Anthropic's reported operating profit make the commercial gap more concrete for investors.

First-order effects

  • OpenAI faces sharper investor scrutiny over the widening gap between $6.7B in quarterly sales and a $12.3B loss, making its reported Q3 growth acceleration central to its near-term narrative.
  • Anthropic's reported small operating profit gives it a materially different financial position from OpenAI despite both companies operating at multibillion-dollar revenue scale.

Second-order effects

  • The two results raise the competitive benchmark from revenue growth alone to the ability to translate AI demand into operating profit, pressuring OpenAI to demonstrate improving economics alongside faster sales.
  • Investors comparing the companies now have a clearer trade-off between OpenAI's stated reacceleration and Anthropic's reported profitability, rather than treating AI revenue scale as the sole measure of progress.

Third-order effects

  • If this divergence persists, frontier-model competition will be judged increasingly by inference and operating-cost discipline, not only by user growth or topline expansion.
  • The sector may split between companies able to fund compute-intensive growth from improving operations and those that remain dependent on outside capital while losses widen.

The trend: Frontier AI is entering a commercialization phase in which revenue growth must increasingly be matched by sustainable compute economics.

Discussion

  • @berber_jin1 Berber Jin on x
    openai has been tossing out a lot of vague ARR numbers, so we decided to take a deeper look. the company grew revenue by just 18% to $6.7 billion from q1 to q2, while its losses sank further into the red not a great sign ahead of an IPO w/ @cdriebusch via @WSJ
  • @andersonbcdefg Ben on x
    BERBER NOOOO YOU CANT JUST REPORT THE QUARTERLY REVENUE LIKE THAT. YOU HAVE TO ANNUALIZE LAST WEEK'S REVENUE. YOU'RE GOING TO COLLAPSE THE ECONOMY
  • @p_remarks @p_remarks on x
    People think Ant's $65B is bad People think OAI's 18% Q1-Q2 growth is bad People think Gemini not being frontier is bad People think Meta not commercializing any new AI products is bad Those are your top layer AI revenue generators We either accelerate or implode
  • @blichtor Brian Lichtor on x
    It seems pretty concerning that OpenAI only grew revenue to $6.7 billion in Q2 from $5.7B in Q1. 17.5% quarter over quarter is fine, but it's far from what I would hope to see given the massive run up in everything AI/data center.
  • @neilcybart Neil Cybart on x
    ChatGPT isn't cutting it for OpenAI and that's before Siri AI even launches. AI chatbot usage figures are fleeting. My Siri AI usage has replaced ChatGPT. OpenAI is desperate to figure out a way around Apple which explains OpenAI's efforts to steal / copy as much Apple HW IP as
  • @edzitron Ed Zitron on x
    OpenAI is washed. Revenue grew from $5.7bn in q1 to $6.7bn in Q2, and the operating margin got worse, though for whatever reason the journal didn't disclose what it was or how much worse it was. Last quarter it was (non-GAAP) negative 122% for some context
  • @zerohedge @zerohedge on x
    It's still good for all those $1.5 trillion in unfunded commitments to hyperscalers, chip companies, etc... right?
  • @deredleritt3r Prinz on x
    How to write a sensationalist FUD article that is still technically factually accurate: - Report on tepid revenue growth from Q1 to Q2 - Oops, neglect to mention that GPT-5.6 Sol was released on July 9 (start of Q3) Codex usage grew from 5m active users to >15m users since the
  • r/BetterOffline r on reddit
    WSJ: OpenAI Second-Quarter Sales Show Tepid Growth Compared with Anthropic
  • @ruoshuiresearch Ruo Shui on bluesky
    “Meanwhile, its operating margin sank further into the red” isn't exactly what you want to hear after announcing a new Chief Revenue Officer
  • @austen Austen Allred on x
    “the company grew revenue by just 18% to $6.7 billion from q1 to q2” Lol come on now
  • @hanchunglee Han on x
    we at the part of the j-curve where 18% q/q growth at $6b sales is called ‘tepid’.
  • @fuckyourputs Samson on x
    are people just retarded or something. how the fuck is this even possible. is everyone just goyim
  • @negligible_cap @negligible_cap on x
    Only 18% sequential top line growth with lower profitability is like shockingly bad when considering the near trillion dollar valuation, no?
  • @matthew_sigel @matthew_sigel on x
    Is it still a scoop if you leave out the first month of Q3?
  • @carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on bluesky
    OpenAI recently told investors that revenue grew 18% from $5.7B in Q1 to $6.7B in Q2 while quarterly losses grew from -$9.3B to -$12.3B.  —  Meanwhile Anthropic more than doubled its revenue to $11.6B from Q1 to Q2.  —  Anthropic also claims to be profitable but this likely exclu…
  • @edzitron Ed Zitron on x
    “Actually anthropic switched accounting for its undefined annualized run rate calculation, no need to worry”
  • @lfg_cap @lfg_cap on x
    does any1 know if they went from gross to net? my conversations say no, just that i was mismodelling may june significantly. please slide in DM if any view on this gross/net for ARR print and its comparability to 47 in may.
  • @downingark Frank Downing on x
    Very hard to look at this and be bearish on compute. The largest consumers are growing revenues 490% y/y, much faster than CAPEX growth.
  • @gavinsbaker Gavin Baker on x
    Good chart from @TMTBreakout July accelerated both MoM and YoY for the sum of OpenAI and Anthropic. Some chance Anthropic shifted from gross to net reporting for ARR. Meaning the 65b is a more conservative metric than the $47. Smart thing to do before an IPO. Openrouter data
  • @firstadopter Tae Kim on x
    The WSJ has a negative anti-OpenAI bias for some time now even as the startup gains a ton of traction with its latest agentic coding models. If a fact doesn't fit their negative narrative, they don't publish it. It's bizarre. Example: Why hasn't the WSJ reported the 20%