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VOICE ARCHIVE

Gavin Baker

@gavinsbaker
115 posts
2026-02-26
Some thoughts ahead of Nvidia tonight
2026-02-26 View on X
Bloomberg

Nvidia reports Q4 revenue up 73% YoY to $68.13B, above $66.21B est., Data Center revenue up 75% YoY to $62.3B, and forecasts Q1 revenue above estimates

Nvidia Corp., the dominant maker of artificial intelligence processors, failed to impress investors with its latest sales forecast …

Some thoughts ahead of Nvidia tonight
2026-02-26 View on X
CNBC

Nvidia stock is down 5%+, as investor concerns around the AI infrastructure boom dampen enthusiasm about its better-than-expected earnings

Kai Nicol-Schwarz /CNBC:

2026-02-24
Loved the @Citrini7 thought piece. However seems unlikely we will have enough compute for this scenario in 2028, or even the early 2030s. Distillation, quantization and Edge AI cannot bridge the gap. AGI is an event horizon with a significant compute dependence.
2026-02-24 View on X
Wall Street Journal

Software stocks like AppLovin and CrowdStrike extended their weeks-long selloff; several of the biggest decliners were discussed in Citrini Research's post

The weeks-long selloff in software stocks deepened Monday amid general unease about the threat posed by AI.  —  Software-makers AppLovin, CrowdStrike …

Loved the @Citrini7 thought piece. However seems unlikely we will have enough compute for this scenario in 2028, or even the early 2030s. Distillation, quantization and Edge AI cannot bridge the gap. AGI is an event horizon with a significant compute dependence.
2026-02-24 View on X
Citrini Research

Imagining an AI-driven “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”: as white-collar layoffs grow, the human-centric consumer economy withers and the social fabric frays

A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future  —  Preface  —  What if our AI bullishness continues to be right …

2026-02-23
Loved the @Citrini7 thought piece. However seems unlikely we will have enough compute for this scenario in 2028, or even the early 2030s. Distillation, quantization and Edge AI cannot bridge the gap. AGI is an event horizon with a significant compute dependence.
2026-02-23 View on X
Citrini Research

Imagining an AI-driven “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”: as white-collar layoffs grow, the human-centric consumer economy withers and the social fabric frays

A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future  —  Preface  —  What if our AI bullishness continues …

2026-01-17
Claude Cowork is what Copilot should have been. Evidently built in 10 days with Claude Code while Microsoft has been working on Copilot for years.
2026-01-17 View on X
Engadget

Anthropic makes Claude Cowork available to $20/month Pro subscribers, after launching it for Max users, and says Pro users may hit their usage limits sooner

Pro subscribers can have Claude can handle simple tasks on their computer.  —  Claude Cowork, Anthropic's AI assistant for taking care …

2025-12-28
@AccBalanced @weka Yes. Best way to deal with the flash shortage is to get more out of the flash in every Blackwell rack.
2025-12-28 View on X
@gavinsbaker

As inference splits into prefill and decode, Nvidia's Groq deal could enable a “Rubin SRAM” variant optimized for ultra-low latency agentic reasoning workloads

Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo. 1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode.

For the sake of clarity and as some have pointed in the replies, I should note that Nvidia is not actually acquiring Grok. It is a non-exclusive licensing agreement with some Grok engineers joining Nvidia. Grok will continue to operate their cloud business as an independent
2025-12-28 View on X
@gavinsbaker

As inference splits into prefill and decode, Nvidia's Groq deal could enable a “Rubin SRAM” variant optimized for ultra-low latency agentic reasoning workloads

Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo. 1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode.

@chamath Thanks Chamath - interesting thoughts. Time will tell as ever. Should have also said that Nvidia is getting an extremely talented team led by the brilliant @JonathanRoss321 who spent a long time in the wilderness and chewed a lot of metaphorical glass to get Groq to this
2025-12-28 View on X
@gavinsbaker

As inference splits into prefill and decode, Nvidia's Groq deal could enable a “Rubin SRAM” variant optimized for ultra-low latency agentic reasoning workloads

Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo. 1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode.

@RaghuRaghuram Absolutely - Rubin CPX plus Rubin for those workloads. Mix and match.
2025-12-28 View on X
@gavinsbaker

As inference splits into prefill and decode, Nvidia's Groq deal could enable a “Rubin SRAM” variant optimized for ultra-low latency agentic reasoning workloads

Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo. 1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode.

2025-12-27
@AccBalanced @weka Yes. Best way to deal with the flash shortage is to get more out of the flash in every Blackwell rack.
2025-12-27 View on X
Spyglass

The Groq deal secures key talent for Nvidia, including CEO Jonathan Ross, creator of the TPU, and keeps them from companies that may try to make their own chips

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a... wait.  What's that?

@chamath Thanks Chamath - interesting thoughts. Time will tell as ever. Should have also said that Nvidia is getting an extremely talented team led by the brilliant @JonathanRoss321 who spent a long time in the wilderness and chewed a lot of metaphorical glass to get Groq to this
2025-12-27 View on X
Spyglass

The Groq deal secures key talent for Nvidia, including CEO Jonathan Ross, creator of the TPU, and keeps them from companies that may try to make their own chips

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a... wait.  What's that?

@RaghuRaghuram Absolutely - Rubin CPX plus Rubin for those workloads. Mix and match.
2025-12-27 View on X
Spyglass

The Groq deal secures key talent for Nvidia, including CEO Jonathan Ross, creator of the TPU, and keeps them from companies that may try to make their own chips

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a... wait.  What's that?

For the sake of clarity and as some have pointed in the replies, I should note that Nvidia is not actually acquiring Grok. It is a non-exclusive licensing agreement with some Grok engineers joining Nvidia. Grok will continue to operate their cloud business as an independent
2025-12-27 View on X
Spyglass

The Groq deal secures key talent for Nvidia, including CEO Jonathan Ross, creator of the TPU, and keeps them from companies that may try to make their own chips

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a... wait.  What's that?

2025-12-11
Starlink v3 will be 20 kilowatts and should have no thermal dissipation issues. Elon's stated plan is 100 kilowatts for each AI satellite; slightly less than a full Blackwell rack. Starship should be able to lift 10 to 15 megawatts to sun-synchronous orbit per flight.
2025-12-11 View on X
Invest Like The Best on YouTube

Q&A with investor Gavin Baker of Atreides Management on the economics of AI, data centers in space, mistakes SaaS companies are making in adopting AI, and more

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with investor Gavin Baker to explore the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Deeply amused by all the confident commentary that datacenters in space do not work from a physics and engineering perspective. Elon operates two of the largest coherent GPU clusters in the world, SpaceX is responsible for over 90% of mass to orbit and SpaceX operates the
2025-12-11 View on X
Invest Like The Best on YouTube

Q&A with investor Gavin Baker of Atreides Management on the economics of AI, data centers in space, mistakes SaaS companies are making in adopting AI, and more

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with investor Gavin Baker to explore the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

2025-12-01
Deeply strange @nytimes article about @DavidSacks Leading in AI is good for America.  And there is no way for America to lead in AI without American investors in AI doing well.  Irrespective of whether those investors are David's friends or his enemies.  And like everyone who has been in Silicon Valley for a long time, David has enemies in Silicon Valley who are also doing well by investing in AI...Separately, the @nytimes urgently needs to provide remedial math education for these journalists and their editors...
2025-12-01 View on X
Axios

The reaction to NYT's David Sacks story aside, Sacks is pushing policies to help the US win the AI race, which also benefit him, his allies, and even his foes

Top of the Morning  —  I come here neither to praise nor pillory David Sacks, the venture capitalist who spends half …

Deeply strange @nytimes article about @DavidSacks Leading in AI is good for America.  And there is no way for America to lead in AI without American investors in AI doing well.  Irrespective of whether those investors are David's friends or his enemies.  And like everyone who has been in Silicon Valley for a long time, David has enemies in Silicon Valley who are also doing well by investing in AI...Separately, the @nytimes urgently needs to provide remedial math education for these journalists and their editors...
2025-12-01 View on X
New York Times

How David Sacks' AI and crypto policies in Trump's White House benefit his investments, those of his Silicon Valley friends, and the All-In podcast he co-hosts

Calls Conflict Claims “Nothing Burger” Mike Pearl / Gizmodo : 438 Reasons to Doubt that David Sacks Should Work for the Federal Government Mark Toon / Protos : David Sacks sends si...

2025-03-02
The endless quote tweets commenting on the “545% profit margin” are quite funny. Reminds me of 2022 when there was a viral interview with seed stage VCs who said “we are trying to get really smart, really fast on what exactly gross margins are” or something to this effect.
2025-03-02 View on X
Bloomberg

DeepSeek says its V3 and R1 models' cost of inferencing relative to sales during a 24-hour-period on February 28 put “theoretical” profit margins at 545%

Chinese artificial intelligence phenomenon DeepSeek revealed some financial numbers on Saturday, saying its “theoretical” …

2025-03-01
The endless quote tweets commenting on the “545% profit margin” are quite funny. Reminds me of 2022 when there was a viral interview with seed stage VCs who said “we are trying to get really smart, really fast on what exactly gross margins are” or something to this effect.
2025-03-01 View on X
Bloomberg

DeepSeek says its V3 and R1 models' cost of inferencing relative to sales during a 24-hour-period on February 28 put “theoretical” profit margins at 545%

Chinese artificial intelligence phenomenon DeepSeek revealed some financial numbers on Saturday, saying its “theoretical” …