US sets export restrictions on China's biggest chipmaker SMIC, saying exports to SMIC posed an “unacceptable risk” of being diverted to “military end use”

Financial Times 2020-09-28

Context & Ripple Effects

This move lands days after reports that Washington was weighing adding SMIC to the Entity List, news that had already knocked the chipmaker's stock down more than 20% (considered export restrictions). Formalizing the restrictions converts that speculation into licensing requirements on any US company selling SMIC technology.

First-order effects

US equipment and software suppliers can no longer sell to China's largest foundry without a license, immediately constraining SMIC's access to American toolchains for its most advanced lines.
SMIC's expansion plans — including its ~$5.8B buyout of the SMNC 12-inch wafer unit — now depend on non-US sourcing for anything under license control.

Second-order effects

The restrictions accelerate China's substitution push: a documented requirement that chipmakers use at least 50% domestically made equipment for new capacity gains urgency, and reports of Chinese fabs retrofitting older ASML DUV lithography machines for advanced production show the workaround path already forming.
Escalation compounds rather than plateaus — within months the DOD added SMIC to its blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies (DOD blacklist), layering investment prohibitions on top of export licensing.

Third-order effects

If the licensing pattern holds, enforcement tightens rather than relaxes: by 2023 the US was sending letters suspending suppliers' permission to sell even to SMIC's most advanced plant after a chip it made for Huawei (2023 supplier suspension letters), pointing toward a structurally bifurcated semiconductor supply chain with parallel domestic-equipment ecosystems on each side.

The trend: Semiconductor export controls are evolving from single-company actions into an escalating regime that forces China toward self-sufficient equipment and fabrication capacity.

Discussion

@mtdtl Mathieu Duchtel on x
Specifics yet to be issued. Department of Commerce's letter to the US semiconductor industry stresses “an unacceptable risk of diversion to a military end use in the PRC”. This means enforcing a dual-use export control regime to sales to SMIC https://www.wsj.com/...
@sreemoytalukdar Sreemoy Talukdar on x
“US pressure has prevented SMIC buying the equipment needed to make cutting-edge chips, such as the kind that Huawei needs, but can no longer buy, for its smartphones.” https://www.ft.com/...
@andreaslandwehr Andreas Landwehr on x
Analysts at the investment bank Jefferies estimate that up to half of SMIC's equipment currently comes from U.S. suppliers. SMIC could struggle to stay in business if those partners cannot service and upgrade the company's manufacturing equipment https://www.nytimes.com/...
@carlbildt Carl Bildt on x
The semiconductor war is the most serious part of the rapidly escalating technology war 🇺🇸🇨🇳. The aim is to seriously disrupt all efforts by 🇨🇳 to move up the digital value chain. It might succeed for a while - but long term effects are more doubtful. https://www.nytimes.com/...
@drgregquarles Gregory Quarles on x
Wow. And the restrictions just keep coming at China. Likely to slow their chip development significantly. https://twitter.com/...
@bizalmanac Andy on x
Maybe the first hint that Cadence's, $CDNS, Chinese revenues, about 10% of their total, are truly at risk, from @FT: China's biggest chipmaker hit by US sanctions https://www.ft.com/...
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on x
The U.S. has banned Huawei, TikTok, Tencent & SMIC in some form. Also Chinese foreign student enrollment is in decline. Reasonable to expect retaliation against U.S. companies in the coming months. If you invest in tech, time to rebalance your portfolio. https://www.ft.com/...
@halhod @halhod on x
Just hearing SMIC has been declared a “military end user” by the American Department of Commerce. If true it's a gigantic next step into the chip wars proper by America. SMIC is China's best (only) hope of domestic logic chip production, and this cuts it off from vital US tools
@thorstenbenner Thorsten Benner on x
“In the worst-case scenario, SMIC is completely cut off, which would severely set back China's ability to produce chips. This would be tipping point for US-China relations”. @pstAsiatech on US move to cut off China's most important semiconductor manufacturer from US technology. h…
@tommackenzietv Tom Mackenzie on x
Not a huge surprise, but nonetheless another meaningful escalation in US-China tech war SMIC is by some measures China's leading chip co. & key to indigenous production aims U.S. Government Sanctions Chinese Chipmaker SMIC, FT Reports https://www.bloomberg.com/... @QuickTake http…
@yuanfenyang Yuan Yang on x
New rules are being used to cut China's biggest chipmaker off from suppliers. There had long been rumours of sanctions for SMIC: now we've seen the private letter sent by @CommerceGov to suppliers. Scoop @ft https://www.ft.com/...
@ericgarland Eric Garland on x
China is being cut off from the world technology supply chain. I suspect we'll see a larger narrative as to why - mainly to do with the national security of NATO countries. https://www.ft.com/...
@chinaresearchgp @chinaresearchgp on x
“It all depends on how the US implements this. In the worst-case scenario, SMIC is completely cut off, which would severely set back China's ability to produce chips. This would be a tipping point for US-China relations,” said Paul Triolo of Eurasia Group. https://www.ft.com/...
@kate_okeeffe Kate O'Keeffe on x
The U.S.-China chip wars continue: U.S. just declared SMIC, China's largest semiconductor maker, a military end-user. Firms will now have to get licenses to ship U.S. tech to SMIC in a potential major blow to China's chip ambitions https://www.wsj.com/... @DanStrumpf @asafitch
@rdrv3 @rdrv3 on x
And the bear trap closes. This is a crude but effective continuation of the US's tech leverage campaign against China. Without SMIC, China can no longer be a part of the global silicon R&D chain. https://www.ft.com/...
@wsj @wsj on x
The Commerce Department has told U.S. computer-chip companies that they must obtain licenses before exporting certain technology to China's largest manufacturer of semiconductors https://www.wsj.com/...
@onlyyoontv Eunice Yoon on x
US sanctions #China's biggest chipmaker SMIC, says @FT. Move further cuts off telecoms giant @Huawei from chip supply. @CommerceGov told companies that exports to SMIC posed an “unacceptable risk” of being diverted for “military end use”, paper says.https://www.ft.com/...
@mtdtl Mathieu Duchtel on x
Getting closer and closer to sanctions against SMIC https://www.ft.com/... via @financialtimes

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