Qualcomm CFO says the company expects to supply just 20% of Apple's modem chips by 2023, supporting rumors that Apple's modem chips are launching soon
Context & Ripple Effects
This is the latest turn in a six-year arc between the two companies. Back in 2018, amid their patent dispute, Qualcomm said it believed Apple planned to go all-in on Intel modems for the next iPhone — a prediction that framed Qualcomm's exposure to losing its biggest customer entirely.
Since then, Apple has been building its own modem, and reporting on the engineering challenges of that effort explains why the transition keeps slipping. The CFO's 20%-by-2023 figure is effectively Qualcomm pre-announcing a managed decline rather than a cliff-edge loss.
First-order effects
- Qualcomm's Apple modem business shrinks from essentially all iPhones today to roughly one-fifth by 2023 under this guidance, with the remaining share going to Apple's in-house chip as it debuts.
- Apple gains a second modem source for the first time since moving off Intel, reducing single-supplier risk on the component that connects every iPhone.
Second-order effects
- If Apple's chip slips — as later reporting on a postponement toward late 2025 or early 2026 suggests it did — Qualcomm regains leverage, which is exactly what happened when it guided back up to supplying the vast majority of 2023 iPhone modems.
- A partial-share year gives Apple real-world volume data on its own modem across a slice of the fleet, letting it tune the design before committing the full lineup.
Third-order effects
- The repeated timeline slippage illustrates how hard cellular modems are to build compared with application processors — years of development against entrenched, patent-dense incumbent technology.
- If the pattern holds, Apple ends up where it did with its other custom silicon: full internal ownership of a critical component, leaving Qualcomm dependent on Android handset makers and non-phone markets for modem revenue.
The trend: Apple is methodically insourcing its most stubborn remaining external chip dependency, with Qualcomm's disclosed share acting as a public countdown clock that keeps getting reset by engineering reality.