A look at the challenges Apple is facing as it develops its own wireless modem, expected to replace Qualcomm chips in 2023 iPhones
Christopher Mims / Wall Street Journal :
Context & Ripple Effects
This WSJ analysis lands mid-arc on one of Apple's most stubborn silicon projects. Johny Srouji's team had confirmed internally back in December 2020 that it was building its own cellular modem to replace Qualcomm's chips (the modem program's start), and this piece reports that the 2023 target is already under strain.
Subsequent coverage confirms the difficulty was structural rather than temporary: by late 2023 sources pointed to another slip to late 2025 or early 2026 — the final year of Apple's extended Qualcomm contract (the repeated postponement) — before plans firmed up for an iPhone SE debut in spring 2025 and second-generation modems reaching higher-end products like the iPhone 18 lineup in 2026 (the SE-first rollout plan).
First-order effects
- Qualcomm retains its modem socket in flagship iPhones well past the original 2023 replacement date, keeping the revenue and licensing leverage Apple had hoped to eliminate.
- Apple's hardware roadmap absorbs the delay directly: the first in-house modem ships in a low-volume niche device (the iPhone SE) rather than the mainline iPhone lineup it was originally scoped for.
Second-order effects
- A phased SE-first rollout gives Apple real-world carrier certification data before committing flagships, but it also extends Qualcomm's guaranteed business through the life of the extended contract — pricing power stays with the supplier during the transition.
- The modem struggle runs alongside Apple's separate push to replace Broadcom components with a combined Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip (the Broadcom replacement effort), meaning multiple radio suppliers face displacement attempts from the same internal silicon organization.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, Apple's silicon vertical integration proves far easier for compute chips than for radios, where carrier interoperability and patent-encumbered standards set a much higher bar — a template other phone makers watching this program will have to price into their own build-vs-buy decisions.
- Modem independence ultimately shifts negotiating leverage across Apple's supplier base: once the second-generation design reaches flagship volumes, remaining external component suppliers lose their most valuable reference customer.
The trend: Apple's decade-long march toward designing every major chip in-house continues, but the modem saga shows radio silicon lags years behind the pace set by its processors.