Thoma Bravo plans to acquire ForgeRock, which makes identity verification software, for $2.3B in cash; ForgeRock raised $275M from its IPO in September 2021
Jennifer Ryan / Bloomberg :
Context & Ripple Effects
ForgeRock's path here is unusually fast: it filed for an IPO in August 2021 seeking a $3B-$4B+ valuation, raised roughly $275M, then closed up 46% in its NYSE debut at a ~$2.9B market cap. Thoma Bravo's $2.3B all-cash offer lands below that debut valuation just over a year later — a clean marker of how far 2021-vintage enterprise software repriced.
Identity management is also an asset Thoma Bravo knows how to hold: the firm had already built a pipeline of infrastructure-software take-privates, and the deal ultimately cleared without resistance when the US DOJ declined to challenge it before closing in 2023.
First-order effects
- ForgeRock's public shareholders are bought out at $2.3B in cash — under the ~$2.9B market cap from its September 2021 debut — ending one of the shortest public lives among that year's software IPOs.
- Thoma Bravo adds identity verification to its portfolio of infrastructure software assets, with no regulatory fight required.
Second-order effects
- Other recently listed identity and security software companies become obvious take-private candidates: if a stock that popped 46% on day one can be bought below its debut price within a year, public-market support for the sector is thin and PE has the pricing power.
- ForgeRock's identity-management rivals now compete against an owner with dry powder and a playbook for holding assets through a downturn rather than optimizing for quarterly results.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the 2021 software IPO class migrates wholesale into private equity hands — public markets de-rating enterprise software while sponsors buy the same assets at reset prices, shrinking the public identity-security universe.
- Antitrust tolerance for consolidation in identity and access management, signaled by the DOJ standing aside, lowers the barrier for further roll-ups of security vendors by financial buyers.
The trend: The 2021 enterprise-software IPO cohort is being absorbed back into private equity as public markets refuse to sustain its valuations, with Thoma Bravo among the most aggressive consolidators.