How virtual influencers are gaining popularity in China amid a celebrity crackdown; research predicts the industry will go from ~$870M in 2021 to ~$6.7B in 2025
Computer-generated avatars are a safer option as Beijing cracks down on human celebrities — China's celebrity influencers Viya … Tweets: @changeist , @mattnavarra , @astaniscia86 , @edwardwhitenz , and @primroseriordan Tweets: Scott Smith / @changeist : What, fanfic can't do reputational damage? https://giftarticle.ft.com/... Matt Navarra / @mattnavarra : China's virtual influencer market is booming! https://www.ft.com/... https://twitter.com/... Giulio S. / @astaniscia86 : Tencent and ByteDance have ploughed hundreds of millions of dollars into companies that develop digital influencers. China's virtual idol industry is predicted to jump sevenfold from Rmb6.2bn ($870mn) in 2021 to Rmb48bn in 2025. https://www.ft.com/... https://twitter.com/... Edward White / @edwardwhitenz : Enter the virtual idols. Scandals and disappearances have exposed the risks to human celebrities of crossing the Chinese Communist party, especially under Xi's common prosperity reforms. via @ruiyanggloriali & @FinancialTimes https://www.ft.com/... Primrose Riordan / @primroseriordan : “[Virtual idols] don't age...they don't get sick, or tired. Fictional characters do not have the risk of scandalous personal behaviour” Such a revealing read from @ruiyanggloriali on the “safer” multi-billion dollar virtual idol industry in China: https://www.ft.com/... https://twitter.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The boom has a policy origin story: Beijing's 'common prosperity' drive removed some 20,000 influencers in 2021 and left mostly 'wholesome' content standing (the purge of 20K influencers), making any human celebrity a regulatory liability. Virtual people are the compliant substitute — scandal-free performers and customer-service avatars that Beijing itself endorses (Beijing's endorsement of the virtual people industry). Tencent and ByteDance have ploughed hundreds of millions into digital-influencer developers, betting the demand shift is structural rather than cyclical.
The forecast — Rmb6.2bn (~$870M) in 2021 growing to Rmb48bn (~$6.7B) by 2025 — tracks the same arc seen earlier in Japan, where anonymous VTuber channels went mainstream past 1.5B monthly views (VTubers surpassing 1.5B monthly views). The difference is that in China the catalyst is regulatory risk, not just novelty.
First-order effects
- Brands seeking influencer reach in China can now buy it without celebrity-scandal exposure, redirecting endorsement budgets toward avatar operators backed by Tencent and ByteDance.
- The humans behind the avatars absorb the cost: motion capture actors report powering their digital counterparts four to five hours a day under hard conditions (motion capture actors' working conditions).
Second-order effects
- Human influencers face a two-front squeeze — regulatory purges on one side, AI-generated rivals already charging thousands of dollars per promotion on the other (AI-generated influencers charging thousands per promotion) — pushing rates down at the mid-tier.
- Studios competing for brand deals must scale capture capacity, making labor practices for the actors behind the avatars a reputational variable for Tencent- and ByteDance-backed platforms.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, China's public-facing media voices converge toward state-tolerated synthetic personas — an influencer economy where compliance is designed into the talent itself rather than enforced after the fact.
- The model exports: the Japanese VTuber precedent shows avatar-driven audiences sustain without a domestic celebrity class, suggesting synthetic personas become a global template wherever talent risk is priced high.
The trend: China's influencer economy is being rebuilt around state-tolerated synthetic personas, with capital from Tencent and ByteDance converting regulatory risk on human celebrities into a multi-billion-dollar avatar market.