Counterpoint: the average selling price of iPhones could rise to $892 in Q3 2022 and $944 in Q4 2022, as buyers choose Pro models; the record is $873 in Q4 2021
Patrick McGee / Financial Times :
Context & Ripple Effects
Counterpoint's forecast that iPhone average selling prices could reach $892 in Q3 2022 and $944 in Q4 2022 — past the $780 premium-segment ASP and Apple's 57% share of the premium market it measured a few weeks earlier — is a mix-shift story, not a price-hike story: buyers are trading up to Pro models rather than paying more for the same device.
The arc runs back to the 2017 decision to price the premium iPhone at around $999, which created the tier buyers now cluster into, and forward to teardowns like the iPhone 15 bill of materials running ~10% above the iPhone 14's — richer configurations justify the higher price points that keep pulling the average up.
First-order effects
- Apple collects more revenue per unit in Q3–Q4 2022 without raising base-model prices, since the ASP gain comes entirely from buyers choosing Pro tiers over standard models.
- The $944 Q4 forecast would set a new record above the $873 logged in Q4 2021, meaning the holiday quarter's revenue concentration in Apple intensifies even at flat or lower unit volumes.
Second-order effects
- Android vendors competing in the $1,000+ band face an Apple that already holds 57% of the premium market and is now capturing an outsized share of its spending growth, squeezing their room to raise prices themselves.
- Suppliers of the components that differentiate Pro models — higher-capacity storage, better displays and silicon — see demand skew toward the pricier configurations, reinforcing the content-per-device gains visible in Apple's rising bills of materials.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the industry's economics keep decoupling from unit shipments: Counterpoint's own later data shows global smartphone revenue growing 7% while ASPs climb toward $400 and Apple takes 49% of all revenue — value per device, not units, becomes the metric that matters.
- Persistent ASP inflation pushes regulators and analysts to scrutinize whether premium-tier pricing reflects component costs — historically around 35% of sale price per IHS teardowns — or pricing power concentrated in one vendor.
The trend: Smartphones are becoming a value-over-volume market, with Apple's Pro-tier mix shift driving record average selling prices and an ever-larger share of industry revenue.