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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Anxious about regulators, Naspers, SoftBank, Berkshire, and other early investors in Chinese tech giants are selling; $7.6B in Tencent shares could be sold

Bloomberg :

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

The 2022 sell-down has a long runway behind it: Naspers first monetized Tencent back in 2018 when it sold 2% of its stake for roughly $10.6B — against a $32M initial outlay — and then moved to ring-fence the position entirely by spinning its internet holdings, including the Tencent stake, into a Dutch listing. What is new now is the breadth: SoftBank, Berkshire and other early backers are all heading for the exits at once.

Regulatory anxiety is the stated trigger, and the corpus shows why it sticks — when sources flagged that China's regulators would focus on Tencent after the Ant Group crackdown, the stock's two-day slide alone wiped out $62B in market value. A potential $7.6B overhang lands on a share price that investors already trade nervously on revenue rumors.

First-order effects

  • Naspers, SoftBank and Berkshire convert decades-old strategic stakes into cash, with up to $7.6B of Tencent shares potentially hitting the market and capping the stock until the overhang clears.

Second-order effects

Third-order effects

  • If early backers treat regulatory risk as permanent rather than episodic, Chinese tech stakes get structurally repriced — the patient-capital model that built these positions (Naspers holding from 2001) gives way to continuous monetization, and Hong Kong-listed names like Tencent and NetEase carry a standing discount that shows up in every selloff.

The trend: Early-stage investors in Chinese tech giants are shifting from hold-forever strategic stakes to active monetization, with regulatory risk functioning as a standing discount on the shares.

Discussion

  • @pingroma Zheping Huang on x
    For early backers, these are some of the most profitable Chinese stock investments of all time: Tencent, Alibaba, BYD. But now big-name investors are taking money off the table. https://www.bloomberg.com/... w/ @CharlotteYTYang @pelstrom
  • @pelstrom Peter Elstrom on x
    Softbank's bet on Alibaba and Naspers' wager on Tencent were among the most lucrative venture investments in startup history. Masayoshi Son put about $20 million into Jack Ma's Alibaba and the stake soared to more than $200 billion before Xi's administration began its crackdown.
  • @pelstrom Peter Elstrom on x
    Softbank, Naspers, Buffett. They began making China investments two decades ago, resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars in profit. Now all three are retreating after Beijing's crackdown and a resurgence in state control @pingroma @CharlotteYTYang 🧵https://www.bloomberg.com/…
  • @pelstrom Peter Elstrom on x
    In the latest development, Naspers, which backed Tencent in 2001, appears to be selling shares worth about $7.6 billion. Softbank said last month it's unloading about a third of its stake in Alibaba, while Buffett's Berkshire trims its holding in BYD.