Nvidia and AMD say the US has imposed restrictions on exporting chips for AI-related applications to Russia and China, including Nvidia's A100 and AMD's MI200

The U.S. has begun to impose fresh restrictions on exports of advanced chips necessary for AI-related applications to Russia and China …

Protocol 2022-09-01 Max A. Cherney

Context & Ripple Effects

The 2022 controls established advanced AI chips as a direct U.S. export-control target for China and Russia. Subsequent coverage shows Washington working to tighten the regime by closing perceived loopholes in the original controls and extending limits to some regions beyond China.

The commercial constraint became more visible as Chinese companies faced a tougher Nvidia-chip supply situation than the already supply-constrained global market. Later proposals to require approval for Nvidia and AMD shipments country by country show how a targeted product restriction can evolve into a broader control framework.

First-order effects

Nvidia's A100 and AMD's MI200 face immediate export restrictions for AI-related uses in China and Russia, limiting those companies' ability to serve affected buyers with the named products.
Chinese and Russian users seeking the restricted accelerators lose access to a key supply channel while Nvidia and AMD must manage sales under the new U.S. rules.

Second-order effects

Chinese companies' AI infrastructure procurement becomes more constrained than the wider market, a gap documented in the later shortage facing Chinese Nvidia customers.
Nvidia and AMD face recurring compliance and product-planning pressure as U.S. policy moves to constrict exports and close loopholes around the 2022 restrictions.

Third-order effects

The controls point toward AI compute becoming a governed strategic input, with access determined increasingly by export authorization rather than chip demand alone.
If the later proposed global approval model is adopted, the U.S. would shift from restricting named destinations and products toward supervising Nvidia and AMD AI-chip shipments across markets.

The trend: AI-chip export policy is evolving from targeted restrictions on leading accelerators to a broader system for controlling access to AI compute.

Discussion

@sterlingcrispin Sterling Crispin on x
This is a new Cold War for AI development. The US government is banning Nvidia from exporting their AI hardware to China and Russia, wild. These are their high end systems for training and deploying large AI systems, data center scale stuff. This is all made in Taiwan... messy ht…
@lukolejnik Lukasz Olejnik on x
US is prohibiting the export of certain technologies (GPUs) by Nvidia/AMD to Russia, China. Performance cap. Significant technology effects. The many ways of employing such technologies are easily imaginable, including in military. https://www.sec.gov/... https://www.protocol.com…
@firstadopter Tae Kim on x
Not good for Nvidia. H100 is a KEY product “The new license requirement may impact the Company's ability to complete its development of H100 in a timely manner” $NVDA
@byron_wan Byron Wan on x
🇺🇸 Department of Commerce has ordered Nvidia to stop exporting its top-of-the-line AI chips — A100 and H100 designed to speed up machine learning tasks — to China. On the other hand, AMD has been instructed to stop exporting its MI250 AI chips to China. https://www.reuters.com/..…
@therealjoshye Josh Ye on x
The announcement signals a major escalation of the U.S. crackdown on China's technological capabilities as tensions bubble over the fate of Taiwan, where chips for Nvidia and almost every other major chip firm are manufactured. 3/
@mingchikuo @mingchikuo on x
(4/4) 5. It is worth noting whether Chinese clients will directly/indirectly place rush orders to increase inventory to reduce the potential risk from US gov's possible expansion of sales restrictions. If so, that might benefit supply chain utilization rates in the short term.
@therealjoshye Josh Ye on x
Nvidia said on Wed that U.S. officials told it to stop exporting two top computing chips for AI work to China, a move that could cripple Chinese firms' ability to carry out advanced work like image recognition and hamper Nvidia's business in China. 1/ https://www.reuters.com/...
@firstadopter Tae Kim on x
This is a big geopolitical move. The U.S. government is limiting the sale of Nvidia's best AI data center chips to China $NVDA https://www.barrons.com/...
@chernandburn Max A. Cherney on x
BREAKING (again): U.S. to restrict Nvidia from exporting its A100 and H100 server chips to China and Russia. Company says roughly $400 million of revenue at risk if customers there don't buy alternatives. More to follow... https://www.sec.gov/...
@firstadopter Tae Kim on x
U.S. government “indicated that the new license requirement will address the risk that the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a ‘military end use’ or ‘military end user’ in China and Russia.”
@kevinallison Kevin Allison on x
Two reasons why this is a big deal: 1. Broad - covers current + future high end GPUs used in AI, HPC, etc. Applies to any exports to 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 and🇷🇺. 2. Business impact - NVIDIA filing warns it could delay new chips or force it to move ops out of China. https://www.sec.gov/... https:…
@jerrycap @jerrycap on x
$NVDA “on Wednesday said that U.S. officials have ordered it to cease exporting two of its top computing chips for artificial intelligence work to China, hampering a business that accounted for $400 million in sales in the current quarter” https://www.reuters.com/...
@mingchikuo @mingchikuo on x
(1/4) My take on the US government's restriction on Nvidia and AMD's AI chip sales to China and Russia. 1. China leads the world in AI patent filing (https://t.co/...), and US's restriction on AI chip sales would secure the US lead in the AI area.
@mingchikuo @mingchikuo on x
(2/4) 2. AI development is one of a country's core competitiveness, and its applications include aerospace and military, etc. 3. Affected AI chips of Nvidia (H100 & A100) and AMD (MI250) are all made by TSMC's advanced nodes.
@thedragonfeeder Chris Fenton on x
“The U.S. government has applied increasing export restrictions to chips made with U.S. technology because of fears that Chinese companies could use them for military purposes or steal trade secrets.” Logical... https://www.cnbc.com/...
@mingchikuo @mingchikuo on x
(3/4) 4. The impact of the sales restriction on suppliers such as TSMC is limited, but investors worry US gov may expand restrictions on more chips which could affect more server-related or other products. This uncertainty could be a structural risk for the semiconductor sector.
@stephennellis Stephen Nellis on x
U.S. officials have told @NVIDIA and @AMD to halt exporting their top AI training chips to China. The rules will have a huge impact on China's advanced AI sector, and could cost NVIDIA up to $400 million in sales this quarter. More here with @leejane71 https://www.reuters.com/...
@therealjoshye Josh Ye on x
Nvidia said it had booked $400 million in sales of the affected chips this quarter to China that could be lost if Chinese firms decide not to buy alternative Nvidia products. It said it plans to apply for exemptions but has “no assurances” that U.S. officials will grant them. 2/
@dnystedt Dan Nystedt on x
The US plans to impose restrictions on the export of chips used for AI to China and Russia, including advanced graphics chips (GPUs) from Nvidia and AMD, media report, noting both companies say they were notified about new export licensing requirements. $NVDA $AMD $TSM
@counternotions Kontra on x
What took so long? https://twitter.com/...
@nano_arun Arun Mampazhy on x
1) Likely to put extra pressure on global semicon growth Could work in either direction or neutral directly for India 2) Long term, China may develop its on capabilities https://twitter.com/...

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