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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Jon Peddie Research: discrete and integrated GPU sales fell 14.9% QoQ in Q2 2022; Nvidia's sales fell 25.7% QoQ, AMD's fell 7.6% QoQ, and Intel's fell 9.8% QoQ

Shipments of discrete desktop graphics cards down to two-year low.  —  Sales of graphics processing units — discrete and integrated … Source: Jon Peddie Research .

Tom's Hardware Anton Shilov

Context & Ripple Effects

Jon Peddie Research's Q2 2022 tally marks the moment the post-pandemic GPU boom definitively broke: total discrete and integrated shipments fell 14.9% QoQ, and discrete desktop cards hit a two-year low, with Nvidia absorbing the sharpest single-vendor drop at 25.7% QoQ versus AMD's 7.6% and Intel's 9.8%.

The subsequent coverage shows this was a floor, not a bottom — [[a:986298|discrete GPU shipments fell another 42% YoY in Q3 to their lowest level since at least 2005]], and by Q4 total PC-based GPU shipments were down 35% YoY. The Q2 print is the opening data point of a three-quarter collapse that forced every vendor named here to reweight toward non-PC revenue.

First-order effects

  • Nvidia takes the immediate hit: a 25.7% QoQ shipment decline concentrated in its gaming channel, which its own Q3 report confirmed with Gaming revenue down 51% YoY even as Data Center grew 31%.
  • Desktop add-in-board partners and retailers face a two-year-low supply of cards moving into a demand trough, pressuring channel inventory and pricing.

Second-order effects

  • The divergence inside Nvidia's results pushes all three vendors to chase data center and notebook-adjacent revenue to offset desktop decay — a playbook AMD already knows from its 2015 quarter blaming a shrinking PC market for a 35% YoY revenue drop.
  • With shipments collapsing faster than silicon supply, street pricing on desktop cards falls below MSRP, eroding the margin premium vendors held through the shortage era.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, the PC GPU market structurally splits: volume desktop graphics becomes a low-margin, cycle-driven commodity, while vendor valuations and R&D shift to data center accelerators — visible later in AMD's Client segment falling 54% YoY while Data Center held up far better.
  • A sustained multi-quarter contraction gives Intel's nascent discrete GPU push a harder entry window, potentially reshaping the market from a duopoly-plus-challenger into one where integrated and server parts carry the strategy.

The trend: PC graphics demand is decoupling from the AI/data-center buildout, turning desktop GPUs into a cyclical side business for Nvidia, AMD, and Intel alike.

Discussion

  • @jonpeddie @jonpeddie on x
    Q2'22 saw a significant decline in GPU and PC shipments quarter to quarter - PC GPU market shipments decreased by -12.7% sequentially and decreased by -32% year to year. https://www.jonpeddie.com/... https://twitter.com/...