Elon Musk says the Twitter deal “cannot move forward” until Twitter proves bots are <5% of users, claiming his offer is based on “SEC filings being accurate”

Elon Musk said he'll proceed with his $44 billion takeover of Twitter Inc. only if the social media giant … Source: @elonmusk .

Bloomberg 2022-05-17 Edwin Chan

Context & Ripple Effects

Musk had already put the transaction on hold over spam-account review while saying he remained committed; the new condition hardens that earlier pause over spam-account data into a test of Twitter's reported user metrics. His separate indication that a lower purchase price was possible makes the bot dispute consequential for both completion and valuation.

The related coverage later reports that Musk's team found the spam figures unverifiable through Twitter's data firehose, escalating the disagreement from a public demand to a challenge over the information available to a buyer.

First-order effects

Twitter faces immediate pressure to substantiate its under-5% bot estimate and the accuracy of the SEC filings Musk says underpinned his $44 billion offer.
Musk's stated condition leaves the takeover's path uncertain while giving his side a stated basis to challenge the agreed terms.

Second-order effects

A dispute over bot measurement strengthens Musk's leverage to seek a repriced transaction, consistent with his public openness to a lower price.
Twitter's disclosed user-quality metrics become central diligence material for the buyer, rather than a background operating disclosure.

Third-order effects

If buyers cannot independently verify platform account metrics from the data a target provides, user-quality disclosure is likely to become a more contested element of social-platform acquisition agreements.
The episode points toward transaction terms that place greater weight on auditability of platform data, not only the metrics reported in filings.

The trend: Large platform deals are making the verifiability of reported audience data a core valuation and diligence issue.

Discussion

@elonmusk Elon Musk on x
@Teslarati 20% fake/spam accounts, while 4 times what Twitter claims, could be *much* higher. My offer was based on Twitter's SEC filings being accurate. Yesterday, Twitter's CEO publicly refused to show proof of <5%. This deal cannot move forward until he does.
@cianmaher0 Cian Maher on x
All Elon Musk has done since he said he was buying Twitter is look for reasons to not buy Twitter https://twitter.com/...
@green_footballs Charles Johnson on x
Seems like something you'd investigate BEFORE committing to a $44 billion deal, if you were serious. https://twitter.com/...
@ldrogen Leigh Drogen on x
This guy is never ever going to jail for stock manipulation or securities fraud Ever And he knows it And when that's the case, oh man what a superpower He probably doesn't even care about the money it's just a game and he won again https://twitter.com/...
@film_girl Christina Warren on x
What a baby. Take the L and admit your trolling backfired and now you're stuck overpaying for an asset that you've devalued and destabilized with your own behavior. https://www.wsj.com/...
@mattnavarra Matt Navarra on x
Elon Musk expands on his bullshit reason to stall deal in pretext to renegotiating price https://www.wsj.com/...
@bencsmoke Ben Smoke on x
maybe, given his long history of chatting utter gash, we should stop reporting every new thing he says and wait for actual concrete things to happen before cracking out the breaking news gif?? https://twitter.com/...
@martinsfp Martin Sfp Bryant on x
Seeing as he doesn't seem to believe Twitter's methodology, and Twitter says the work can't be duplicated externally, this looks like a potential (expensive) opportunity for Musk to find a way out of a deal he can't finance while making Twitter look like the bad guys. https://twi…
@alex_panetta Alexander Panetta on x
The human brainpower spent discussing this saga could power a fleet of teslas. https://twitter.com/...
@aphclarkson Alexander Clarkson on x
Maybe someone should get Elon a pet hamster instead https://twitter.com/...
@sarthakgh @sarthakgh on x
“Obviously Twitter's actual board of directors would never do this, because they are constantly forgetting that they run Twitter; they don't use it themselves, so they can't imagine that the product might be important to people like Musk.” https://twitter.com/... https://twitter.…
@psawers Paul Sawers on x
There's no question that Musk is simply looking for a way out, the whole thing is looking like an entire waste of everyone's time. https://twitter.com/...
@carnage4life @carnage4life on x
Parag unceremoniously fired his heads of consumer product and monetization. Jack threw the company he founded and ran under the bus. All this just for Elon to get the worst case of buyer's remorse the world's ever seen. Truly, don't count your chickens before they've hatched. htt…
@garyblack00 Gary Black on x
Elon needs to walk away from $TWTR and let it fall back to $30/share. That's the best outcome for $TSLA SHs. End of distraction. https://twitter.com/...
@marcushouse Marcus House on x
Still trying to understand why he wants the hassle honestly. I mean... how many people like Zuckerberg? No one that runs a social media company is likely to be loved, no matter what. 🤔 https://twitter.com/...
@grady_booch Grady Booch on x
@elonmusk ... Seems like you have buyers remorse.
@sherman4949 Alex Sherman on x
Golden parachute update: Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal gets $60m if he sells and is let go as CEO (as assumed). Twitter CFO Ned Segal would get about $46m. https://www.sec.gov/...
@laurenshirsch Lauren Hirsch on x
Here are the risks to its business Twitter's board evaluated in deciding to sell https://twitter.com/...
@loudmouthjulia Julia Alexander on x
Jack Dorsey's behind-the-scenes but incredibly influential role in the last ~seven or so weeks of this Twitter rollercoaster can't be understated, but the proxy lays it out relatively well. https://www.sec.gov/... https://twitter.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@ivanthek @ivanthek on x
!!! Draw your own conclusion. https://twitter.com/...
@sherman4949 Alex Sherman on x
So — the way this is written — it sounds like Musk was ready to join the Twitter board until @jack told him he thought Twitter would be better off private and wouldn't stick around on the board with him. https://www.sec.gov/...
@sarafischer Sara Fischer on x
#BREAKING: @Twitter files preliminary proxy. Details: 1. Shows bankers advised Twitter take deal at $54.20 2. @jack recommended to @elonmusk Twitter “better able to focus on execution” as a private co 3. Musk was considering starting competitor to Twitter https://www.sec.gov/... …
@sherman4949 Alex Sherman on x
“Mr. Musk reiterated his interest in potentially joining the Twitter Board to help improve Twitter's business as a director of Twitter, and that he was also considering the possibility of taking Twitter private or starting a competitor to Twitter.” https://www.sec.gov/...
@laurenshirsch Lauren Hirsch on x
When Elon told the Twitter board about his stake, he proposed three things: join the board, take it private or start a competitor https://twitter.com/...
@arashmassoudi Arash Massoudi on x
Goldman Sachs will make $80m and JPMorgan will make $53m from advising Twitter IF (that's a gigantic if) the deal happens. https://www.sec.gov/...
@samro @samro on x
my favorite part of this whole Twitter/Musk hullabaloo is the $54.20 offer price https://www.sec.gov/...
@sherman4949 Alex Sherman on x
“Furthermore, if the merger is not completed, and depending on the circumstances that cause the merger not to be completed, the price of our common stock may decline significantly.” Ominous (if not obvious) words in Twitter's deal filing: https://www.sec.gov/...
@emptywheel @emptywheel on x
I know this is standard legal boilerplate, but Twitter just questioned Elmo's ability to consummate the deal which, financially, he may not be able to do. https://www.prnewswire.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@bongcapital @bongcapital on x
For everyone saying “he can just pay $1bn and walk away!”, the first item listed under the negotiations is “(1) Twitter's specific enforcement rights to require Parent and Mr. Musk to perform their obligations under the merger agreement and consummate the closing...”
@bongcapital @bongcapital on x
(cont'd) “... on the terms set forth in the merger agreement, as well as third-party beneficiary rights under the equity commitment letter to enforce Mr. Musk's obligations to fund the equity commitment;”
@danprimack Dan Primack on x
April 5: “Mr. Dorsey shared his personal view that Twitter would be better able to focus on execution as a private company.”
@bongcapital @bongcapital on x
The deal background is actually pretty dry. Lame. The attempt to control Elon's shitposting is simply described as “(9) limitations on the parties' ability to make public statements regarding the merger”. Clearly, that didn't really work.
@ivanthek @ivanthek on x
🚨 Twitter files preliminary proxy materials required to solicit stockholder vote, which is a condition to completing the sale to Musk. https://www.sec.gov/... https://twitter.com/...
@danprimack Dan Primack on x
Twitter proxy for Elon takeover. Background of deal begins on page 41. https://www.sec.gov/...
@ivanthek @ivanthek on x
Bottom line: Twitter's lawyers are taking steps to close the deal on its original terms, basically ignoring the noise from Mr. Buyer's Remorse. There will be more drama.
@elonmusk Elon Musk on x
@paraga 💩
@elonmusk Elon Musk on x
@paraga So how do advertisers know what they're getting for their money? This is fundamental to the financial health of Twitter.
@paraga Parag Agrawal on x
Unfortunately, we don't believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can't share). Externally, it's not even possible to know which accounts are counted as mDAUs on any given day.
@paraga Parag Agrawal on x
Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5% - based on the methodology outlined above. The error margins on our estimates give us confidence in our public statements each quarter.
@elonmusk Elon Musk on x
@paraga Have you tried just calling them?
@paraga Parag Agrawal on x
We suspend over half a million spam accounts every day, usually before any of you even see them on Twitter. We also lock millions of accounts each week that we suspect may be spam - if they can't pass human verification challenges (captchas, phone verification, etc).
@paraga Parag Agrawal on x
First, let me state the obvious: spam harms the experience for real people on Twitter, and therefore can harm our business. As such, we are strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can, every single day. Anyone who suggests otherwise is just wrong.
@esqueer_ @esqueer_ on x
I pity the lawyer that has to explain how a poop emoji constitutes a disparaging remark and a violation of the acquisition deal in this context. Oh wait, that's me. https://twitter.com/...
@paraga Parag Agrawal on x
Now, we know we aren't perfect at catching spam. And so this is why, after all the spam removal I talked about above, we know some still slips through. We measure this internally. And every quarter, we have estimated that <5% of reported mDAU for the quarter are spam accounts.
@flashboy Tom Phillips on x
when you are a very smart and good faith individual https://twitter.com/...
@timobrien Tim O'Brien on x
Translation: “I'd like to get out of this deal before Tesla shares crater any further.” https://twitter.com/...
@paraga Parag Agrawal on x
Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews (in replicate) of thousands of accounts, that are sampled at random, consistently over time, from *accounts we count as mDAUs*. We do this every quarter, and we have been doing this for many years.
@elonmusk Elon Musk on x
@Andst7 @paraga Seems like Twitter should welcome external validation if their claims are true
@randfish Rand Fishkin on x
Today, Twitter CEO @paraga responded to our report (and Mr. Musk's tweets) without directly mentioning either. We agree that Twitter mDAUs is a black box measurement, and thus external researchers like us can't truly know if our metrics align. https://twitter.com/...
@karaswisher Kara Swisher on x
Btw like I said on @PivotPod — these moguls are pretty predictable. Up next, lawsuits! https://www.nytimes.com/...
@vickerysec Chris Vickery on x
It's really funny how the current CEO of Twitter is intentionally saying “spam” instead of “bots” or “fake accounts”. The guy is bending over backwards to mindfuck everyone with word choice. It's a very telling deception and should be viewed as an admission of guilt. https://twit…
@alexhern Alex Hern on x
The first of the flaws listed here feels like a pretty conclusive rebuttal to an otherwise interesting thread. There's no obvious reason to expect active twitter users to be regular tweeters, and - given consumption/creation ratios on other platforms - reason to doubt it https://…
@ogbenidipo @ogbenidipo on x
You have done such a bad job dealing with spam and bot accounts. I block such nuisance accounts everyday. I have blocked almost 5,000 so far. You are clearly not doing enough. It got worse a few years ago. It didn't use to be like this. https://twitter.com/...
@andst7 Andrea Stroppa on x
🛑 Nothing special here: That's what happens on every social media platform. On Instagram even If you bypass captcha and phone registration, IG can check if your first actions on the platform are suspected. https://twitter.com/...
@karaswisher Kara Swisher on x
Yeah, the use of the phone rather than, say, public yelling is an interesting idea. https://twitter.com/...
@eugenegu Eugene Gu on x
This is like Big Pharma saying that it doesn't believe that the process for determining the safety and efficacy of a new drug can be performed externally through a clinical trial, but somehow can be done by the company itself because of private information it just can't share. ht…
@moorehn Heidi N. Moore on x
Buddy: If you have to write a whole thread pointing out why your *ACQUIRER* is spreading misinformation about your business model, it's time to call off the deal https://twitter.com/...
@drkarlynb @drkarlynb on x
Parag on his best behavior, totally trying to save his job when Musk takes over. It won't work. He will be fired when the new sheriff comes to town. https://twitter.com/...
@lozzafox Laurence Fox on x
We may be about to find out that most of our Twatter trolls are paid for by Twatter itself. https://twitter.com/...
@polotek Marco Rogers on x
We talk about Musk's cult of personality a lot. This illustrates one the more prominent aspects. He wanders around expecting people to explain things from first principles. That is literally the entire personality of so many dudes on the internet. They love this shit. https://twi…
@ogbenidipo @ogbenidipo on x
This is like fighting with your girlfriend or wife on social media. Can you get in a room and talk? https://twitter.com/...
@nameshiv @nameshiv on x
I too would ask this question only after offering $44 billion https://twitter.com/...
@jaymitchinson James Mitchinson on x
Insist on ID at sign up. One that can be verified and not duplicated. One that can be contacted should the need arise. The account can still tweet and appear anonymously, but can also be held accountable. You know, like real life. https://twitter.com/...
@ron_miller Ron Miller on x
Let's talk about deliberately undermining your own company, ba-by https://twitter.com/...
@digiphile Alex Howard on x
The @Twitter CEO's thread on spam is interesting, & informative. A contrast to how forthcoming he's been about their civic integrity & dis/misinformation @policy works, debunking BS about how @birdwatch works, or defending the integrity & impact of their @TwitterSafety team. http…
@jowens510 Jeremy C. Owens on x
The real question to me is how many SEC enforcement actions come out of this. He filed late, that's one. His “on hold” tweet last week is likely another one - the deal was not in any way “on hold” at that moment, and the false statement caused multiple equities to move.
@jowens510 Jeremy C. Owens on x
No matter what Elon puts on Twitter in his attempt to not overpay for Twitter, the deal is not less likely per se - they have a contract, and that contract is legally enforceable. He is fishing for an out, but the waters he is fishing in rn ain't got that for him IMO. https://twi…
@willoremus Will Oremus on x
the game is called Explain Like I'm Elon. it takes place in front of a live virtual audience of 93.5 million. 91.7m of them are rabidly on elon's side and have brought their own poo. there is no way to win but you can lose by earnestly engaging until you are entirely caked in poo
@yoda @yoda on x
ridiculous isn't even the word for all of this. https://www.techmeme.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@mollyjongfast Molly Jong-Fast on x
Watching Elon trying to get out of buying twitter is really something https://twitter.com/...
@far33d Fareed Mosavat on x
Anyone who has spent meaningful time building consumer products knows that the demographic makeup of a DAU is often dramatically different than those of a “user”. It's possible for both “< 5% of mDAU look like spam” and “20% of sampled accounts look like spam” to be true. https:/…
@garyblack00 Gary Black on x
As I expected, $TWTR will not acknowledge that spam/bots represent more than 5% of mDAUS. So either Elon exercises his $1B exit fee and walks away, or tries to negotiate a lower price based on his discovery that more than 5% of TWTR mDAUs are bots/fake accounts. https://twitter.c…
@mmasnick Mike Masnick on x
Elon is mocking Parag for not “just calling” accounts to see if they're real or not. Meanwhile, every day I hear from Twitter users locked out of their accounts, because Twitter demands they add a phone number, and the users don't want to reveal that info to Twitter. https://twit…
@danprimack Dan Primack on x
1/ Twitter could make private data available to @elonmusk via a data room, as would be normal in M&A. 2/ Elon could have asked for this during due diligence, were he to have done it. 3/ All of this only hurts Twitter, no matter who ultimately owns it. 🤡🚗🤡🚗 🤡🚗🤡🚗 🤡🚗
@willoremus Will Oremus on x
ah yes, welcome ad-industry people to this fun game where a rich guy tweets the single most cliche critique of your entire field as if it's his own devastating insight that no one else has thought of before, and then you get to try to explain as he bombards you with poo emojis ht…
@ghulamrabbani_ @ghulamrabbani_ on x
Meanwhile in India .. Do @Twitter know what they're sowing by selling hate for money? This is fundamental to the democratic health of any nation. https://twitter.com/...
@tomcoates Tom Coates on x
This is a reply from Musk to the current Twitter CEO. He *has* to be trying to scupper this deal. https://twitter.com/...
@fridaghitis Frida Ghitis on x
Twitter's CEO offered a lengthy, detailed explanation in response to Elon Musk's concerns over bots on the site. (See his thread about Musk's response) This was Musk's very thoughtful, mature response. https://twitter.com/...
@westcoastbill Bill Lee on x
buckle your seatbelts. we may be watching the implosion of $twtr in real-time - and on twtr itself. oh the irony. https://twitter.com/...
@kantrowitz Alex Kantrowitz on x
Elon is negotiating the price down in real time, on Twitter, in front of all of us. Wild stuff. https://twitter.com/...
@tomgara Tom Gara on x
Twitter may be the first tech stock to drop 7% due to a poop emoji
@russellbrandom Russell Brandom on x
Tesla has shed more than a quarter of its value since the Twitter acquisition deal was signed https://twitter.com/...
@caseynewton Casey Newton on x
There is a world in which Musk bails and we all look back on this 💩 as the moment it became clear he was just going to disparage his way out of the deal
@caseynewton Casey Newton on x
I don't want to make too much of a literal shitpost but what the hell is going on with this cursed acquisition https://twitter.com/...
@richlightshed Rich Greenfield on x
500,000 spam accounts suspended daily is mind-boggling https://twitter.com/...
@techau @techau on x
Maybe change the criteria on the way in ?? https://twitter.com/...
@kurtwagner8 Kurt Wagner on x
gonna go out on a limb and assume Elon doesn't find this explanation sufficient.... https://twitter.com/...
@lanceulanoff Lance Ulanoff on x
Twitter is expelling roughly the population of Reno, Nevada, on a daily basis https://twitter.com/...
@cokedupoptions John W. Rich on x
@elonmusk @paraga The merger talks seem to be going well
@carnage4life @carnage4life on x
We're now at the Twitter's CEO explaining spam fighting 101 to Elon Musk who is willing to spend $44B to buy a company but unwilling to grok the basic daily threats it faces and how they deal with them.A key point is that many accounts people think are bots are just shitty people…
@kurtwagner8 Kurt Wagner on x
“We shared an overview of the estimation process with Elon a week ago” Interesting thread here from Twitter's CEO outlining a bit more detail on how they determine the % of accounts that are spam. Reminder, Elon said late last week the deal was “on hold” until he learned more htt…
@quisitiveinvest @quisitiveinvest on x
haha, CEO of $TWTR didn't write his thread properly so its not linearly displayed: https://twitter.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@chillmage @chillmage on x
I believe Twitter is doing everything it can to fight spam because no platform operator wants it. it's been a complex problem for decades. but reading the *human* replies to this show the real problem. angry bad faith trolls poison everything more than bots ever could https://twi…
@bongcapital @bongcapital on x
This is a lot of tweets to say “no price cut for Elon”. https://twitter.com/...
@shannonpareil Shannon Bond on x
just a normal corporate deal where CEO subtweets a whole thread at the buyer https://twitter.com/...
@benedictevans Benedict Evans on x
Subtweeting Elon https://twitter.com/...
@clarajeffery Clara Jeffery on x
Insane that he has to do this to fight Elon's misunderstandings and misinformation, that said, kind of a nice tutorial for ordinary users on how spam and bots work https://twitter.com/...
@larakate @larakate on x
Someone who has actually thought deeply about this issue and done the work to address it. What a concept! https://twitter.com/...
@yoyoel Yoel Roth on x
Lots of conversation about spam last week! Here are some facts about how we measure the prevalence of spam accounts on Twitter (and a few thoughts on adversarial manipulation campaigns specifically) 👇 https://twitter.com/...
@johnpaczkowski John Paczkowski on x
Cage match! https://twitter.com/...
@mikeisaac @mikeisaac on x
CEO of twitter currently has to defend the company from its prospective buyer's apparent misunderstandings about the service on a weekly basis now https://twitter.com/...
@kantrowitz Alex Kantrowitz on x
Twitter CEO says Elon Musk's bot counting methodology is nonsense https://twitter.com/...
@matt_levine Matt Levine on x
ugh i wrote this a month ago https://twitter.com/...
@soonergrunt @soonergrunt on x
I wonder how long until the SEC smacks him again? https://twitter.com/...
@dandrezner Daniel W. Drezner on x
Same, but for my mortgage. https://twitter.com/...
@gartenberg Michael Gartenberg on x
Gee, waay to talk *down* the stock price for a cheaper deal. Wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan all along. Don't really care if Musk buys Tesla, it's the way he's doing it feels manipulative, will hurt shareholders and mess with employees livelihoods https://twitter.com/.…
@brianstelter Brian Stelter on x
“Elon Musk stoked speculation that he could seek to renegotiate his takeover of Twitter Inc., saying a viable deal at a lower price wouldn't be ‘out of the question.’ Twitter shares fell as much as 8.1% in afternoon trading...” https://www.bloomberg.com/...
@smotus Seth Masket on x
“Wow that was a delicious meal.” “Thank you, sir. That'll be $85.” “Me giving you less money is not out of the question.” https://twitter.com/...
@ideagov Alan W. Silberberg on x
Hmm... sounds like some trying to get out of the deal going on.... Musk Says Twitter Deal at Lower Price Is ‘Not Out of the Question’ https://www.bloomberg.com/...
@epro Emil Protalinski on x
Google Finance and Yahoo Finance agree that $TWTR closed at $37.39 today, but not on how much percentage down that is. https://twitter.com/... https://twitter.com/...
@chimeracoder @chimeracoder on x
just some light securities fraud here - par for the course for Elon Musk https://twitter.com/...
@dataandpolitics @dataandpolitics on x
That's not how purchase agreements work, fyi. https://twitter.com/...
@hblodget Henry Blodget on x
Meaning a price cut is guaranteed — if the deal happens at all? https://twitter.com/...
@zerohedge @zerohedge on x
*MUSK: BIDEN ADMIN 'DOESN'T HAVE THE DRIVE' TO GET STUFF DONE *MUSK SAYS TRUMP ADMIN HAD OFFICIALS WHO ACCOMPLISHED MORE
@danprimack Dan Primack on x
Beginning to get a bit surprised that a PE firm isn't jumping in on Twitter at, say, $40 per share. Board could now justifiably argue superior offer.
@matt_levine Matt Levine on x
why would they reprice this deal, what's the point of signing another agreement
@nycsouthpaw @nycsouthpaw on x
To recap Musk's behavior— illegally accumulated stock without disclosing his interest, filed a misleading 13g - agreed to join board and signed a standstill, reneged on it within days - offered a then-low price, got board approval, signed a merger agmt, reneged on it within 3w
@hblodget Henry Blodget on x
Elon! I know Twitter is fun — tweeting, flirting with buying it, owning libs, etc. But it's a waste of your talents and time. And it's unfair to Twitter employees. What you have done with SpaceX, Tesla, etc., is so inspiring and important. Maybe move on? https://markets.businessi…
@pschlarm @pschlarm on x
man admits to securities fraud https://twitter.com/...
@hshaban Hamza Shaban on x
...using Twitter to raise doubt about the acquisition of Twitter, lowering the price of Twitter... https://twitter.com/...
@parismarx Paris Marx on x
Elon Musk has been tweeting shit about Twitter since he announced his deal to buy it, driving down the share price the entire time. Now he admits he wants to renegotiate at a lower price. Twitter's board should tell him to pay the $1B fee and take a hike. https://www.bloomberg.co…
@questauthority Mike Dunford on x
I think it's clear to everyone that Musk is trying to renegotiate the Twitter deal while taking actions that drive the stock price down. I've seen Musk stans who think this is great. Here's the key bit that needs to be kept in mind: https://www.bloomberg.com/...
@matt_levine Matt Levine on x
he signed an agreement with them and reneged on it within a week. so they signed another agreement with him, terrific
@nycsouthpaw @nycsouthpaw on x
Odds of an epic circus in the Delaware Chancery Court with $44b on the line continue to rise. https://twitter.com/...
@slpng_giants @slpng_giants on x
Instead of getting @elonmusk's thoughts on the Buffalo shooting and whether or not it would be allowed on this platform under his leadership, we get this: https://twitter.com/...
@frankluntz Frank Luntz on x
What will @ElonMusk cheerleaders say if he backs out of his Twitter acquisition? He says the deal is “on hold” now until after he can ascertain what percentage of Twitter's daily active users are bots. Or maybe until @Tesla stock goes back up. 🤔 https://markets.businessinsider.co…
@randfish Rand Fishkin on x
On Friday, @ElonMusk said his deal to acquire Twitter was on hold pending an analysis of “spam/fake” accounts. We've now completed an analysis of 44,058 public Twitter accounts who've tweeted in the last 90 days. 19.42% are likely spam or fake. Details: https://sparktoro.com/...
@randfish Rand Fishkin on x
There's just one issue that sticks in my craw. If Twitter successfully IDs 95% of the millions of spam accounts in analyses like ours, why leave them active on the platform? He says they remove 500k/day. Why are all these obvious spam accounts still here for us to catch?
@kevinsekniqi @kevinsekniqi on x
Staggeringly high since this is of only accounts that have tweeted in the past 90 days. I suspect if you consider also accounts that haven't tweeted, that number skyrockets. And if you filter by certainly industries, it becomes mostly spam/bots. https://twitter.com/...
@iamraisini @iamraisini on x
@paraga Parag, u don't need to convince us, we are well aware that Twitter is full of bots! You keep trying to justify but that's the truth Here's an analysis of 44,058 public Twitter accounts who've tweeted in the last 90 days. 19.42% are likely spam or fake https://sparktoro.co…
@sherman4949 Alex Sherman on x
In the past three weeks, the general informed take on Musk/Twitter has morphed from “Why did they just take $54.20 without a fight?” To “Oh that's why they took $54.20 without a fight.”
@randfish Rand Fishkin on x
@elonmusk ... I encourage you to read the full report: https://sparktoro.com/... I tried not to make it too dry, even in the dry bits. Huge thanks to @caseyhen, @marcmims, and @amandanat (who edited).
@wilreynolds Wil Reynolds on x
What also stood out to me: “70.23% of @ElonMusk followers are unlikely to be authentic, active users who see his tweets” https://twitter.com/...
@paddymoogan Paddy Moogan on x
Whilst potentially conservative in the methodology, this “feels” far closer to what I'd expect, as opposed to less than 5%. https://twitter.com/...
@mayzomatic @mayzomatic on x
Wtf nearly 1/5 of all Twitter users are bots according to this analysis. As ai is developed even further it will be almost impossible to discern a bot from a real person. Crazy https://twitter.com/...
@willcritchlow Will Critchlow on x
This is fascinating. The only charitable interpretation I can come up with for twitter's number is that the “mDAU” figure is post-spam-analysis (though they obv don't kick that spam off the platform) https://twitter.com/...
@gfiorelli1 Gianluca Fiorelli on x
This study is very very good. And not for the debate opened by Muck, but also (and especially) for us SEOs, who share so much here. https://twitter.com/...
@followerwonk @followerwonk on x
Over the weekend, we provided @sparktoro with a random sample of ~44,000 Twitter accounts for a fascinating analysis. Loved teaming up with @caseyhen and @randfish for this. They did the heavy lifting. https://twitter.com/...
@ajtourville Alex on x
65.6M (or 70%) of @elonmusk 93,4M followers are unlikely to be authentic active users who see his tweets 6.7M (or 23%) of @elonmusk 26,8M active followers are likely fake or spam 19% of active accounts on Twitter are likely spam or fake accounts https://sparktoro.com/...

Chronicles