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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Twitter says recent “fluctuations in follower counts” of high-profile accounts after news of Elon Musk's takeover were “organic”, but is still looking into it

for one thing, if you're leaving Twitter over Elon Musk, you're not exactly apolitical. https://twitter.com/... Justin Hendrix / @justinhendrix : If this is really organic, as the company asserts, then the reaction to Musk is even more polarizing than even I ever imagined it could be. https://twitter.com/... Cheri Jacobus / @cherijacobus : Without anti-Trump/Putin, pro-democracy users, Twitter dies. It becomes Parler, gab etc — the failures. https://twitter.com/... Ben Collins / @oneunderscore__ : Pick your celebrity, then pick your right-wing figure, and the results are pretty much the same since Elon Musk's takeover. And it's not just in America. Taylor Swift lost 100k followers. Jair Bolsonaro gained about 90k. https://www.nbcnews.com/... Cenk Uygur / @cenkuygur : There is absolutely, positively no chance these were ‘organic.’ All left-wingers lose subscribers and right-wingers gain subscribers on the same day? They're taunting media by calling it organic. This is basically bragging about their bias. https://www.nbcnews.com/... via @nbcnews Brian Feldman / @bafeldman : this statistical comparison only holds water if you ignore that one of these people has 170x the follower count of the other and make wild assumptions like ‘because i think katy perry is apolitical, so are all 109 million people who follow her.’ genuinely embarrassing stuff https://twitter.com/...

NBC News Ben Collins

Context & Ripple Effects

Two days after Twitter accepted Elon Musk's bid, a study of 100 popular accounts found conservatives gaining roughly 17,000 followers on average while liberals lost about 6,000 — a partisan skew that sits awkwardly with Twitter's claim that the post-takeover fluctuations were entirely organic. Commenters quoted in the piece, including Ben Collins and Cheri Jacobus, read the same numbers as evidence the user base itself is polarizing around Musk.

The company's 'organic' framing is now testable against its own later record: by November, an analysis showed Republican members of Congress gaining followers and Democrats losing them under Musk's ownership, and tests later found Twitter had removed limits on Kremlin-linked accounts including Putin's — reversing an April 2022 policy. Each finding makes the earlier 'organic' assurance harder to take at face value.

First-order effects

  • High-profile liberal accounts are shedding followers while conservative figures gain them immediately after the takeover announcement, putting Twitter's own 'still investigating' stance at odds with the directional data from the 100-account study.
  • Users publicly weighing exits — the reaction Jacobus warns would turn Twitter into 'Parler, gab etc' — force the company to defend its neutrality claims in real time rather than after the deal closes.

Second-order effects

  • Advertisers are watching exactly this kind of integrity question: Pathmatics later found about 70% of Twitter's top 100 pre-takeover ad spenders had stopped spending by mid-December, so any perception that follower counts or reach are being steered compounds the commercial risk.
  • Rival platforms and adjacent networks gain a recruiting argument — if distribution on Twitter appears politically tilted, migration pressure among high-follower accounts gives competitors a ready-made pitch.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds — partisan follower shifts, then congressional account tilts, then removed limits on Kremlin-linked accounts — Twitter's distribution decisions under single-owner control become a standing subject of external audit rather than trusted company statements.
  • The episode points toward platform-neutrality claims becoming unverifiable from the outside, pushing regulators, researchers, and advertisers to rely on independent measurement instead of official assurances.

The trend: Under concentrated ownership, social-platform governance is shifting from self-certified neutrality to externally audited distribution choices, with advertiser and user trust repriced accordingly.

Discussion

  • @bafeldman Brian Feldman on x
    this statistical comparison only holds water if you ignore that one of these people has 170x the follower count of the other and make wild assumptions like ‘because i think katy perry is apolitical, so are all 109 million people who follow her.’ genuinely embarrassing stuff https…
  • @pkedrosky Paul Kedrosky on x
    With today's sharp decline, Tesla stock is now off 19% over the last month, having lost $224 billion in market capitalization, or around 5 Twitters. Can't imagine the cause. https://twitter.com/...
  • @cenkuygur Cenk Uygur on x
    There is absolutely, positively no chance these were ‘organic.’ All left-wingers lose subscribers and right-wingers gain subscribers on the same day? They're taunting media by calling it organic. This is basically bragging about their bias. https://www.nbcnews.com/... via @nbcnew…
  • @heminator Mark Hemingway on x
    There's no evidence in this story that “apolitical” Twitter users are leaving disproportionately — for one thing, if you're leaving Twitter over Elon Musk, you're not exactly apolitical. https://twitter.com/...
  • @justinhendrix Justin Hendrix on x
    If this is really organic, as the company asserts, then the reaction to Musk is even more polarizing than even I ever imagined it could be. https://twitter.com/...
  • @cherijacobus Cheri Jacobus on x
    Without anti-Trump/Putin, pro-democracy users, Twitter dies. It becomes Parler, gab etc — the failures. https://twitter.com/...
  • @oneunderscore__ Ben Collins on x
    Pick your celebrity, then pick your right-wing figure, and the results are pretty much the same since Elon Musk's takeover. And it's not just in America. Taylor Swift lost 100k followers. Jair Bolsonaro gained about 90k. https://www.nbcnews.com/...
  • @oneunderscore__ Ben Collins on x
    New from me: On the day Elon Musk announced his Twitter takeover, 200,000 Katy Perry followers deactivated. Marjorie Taylor Greene gained 90,000 followers. Twitter confirmed to @NBCNews: It wasn't bots. Apolitical users fled. Right-wing users joined. https://www.nbcnews.com/...