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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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TSMC reports a record ~$17B in Q1 revenue, up 36% YoY and above estimates, boosted by increased demand for chips as the prolonged shortage helped raise prices

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. revenue rose to a record in the first quarter on demand for chips used in smartphones …

Bloomberg Betty Hou

Context & Ripple Effects

This April 2022 print is the shortage-era peak: TSMC's record ~$17B quarter came on higher prices as much as volume, with smartphone, PC, and car chips all in demand. It also marks the start of a divergence — six months later TSMC posted ~$19.4B in Q3 revenue even as Micron, Kioxia, and Samsung reported faltering sales, evidence that leading-edge foundry demand held up while memory and commodity chips rolled over.

First-order effects

  • Customers across smartphones, PCs, and autos are paying shortage-inflated foundry prices right now, which is what pushed TSMC past estimates on both revenue and growth.
  • TSMC's pricing power is now explicit enough that it underpins plans to raise advanced and mature node prices by up to 10% in 2027.

Second-order effects

  • Rivals exposed to commodity and memory chips absorb the downturn while TSMC keeps growing, concentrating capex and customer commitments further around the leading-edge foundry.
  • Sustained record revenue funds geographic expansion — the announced $200B US manufacturing program — even as TSMC itself forecasts years of margin dilution ramping those overseas fabs.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, the industry splits structurally: one dominant advanced-node foundry whose pricing survives cycles, and a long tail of suppliers competing on price when demand softens — the $100B revenue year and record profits that followed suggest the concentration stuck.
  • The shortage demonstrated that chip supply responds too slowly to demand signals, so buyers shifted to securing capacity ahead of need — visible later when electronics makers stockpiled chips ahead of US tariffs and drove TSMC's fastest growth since this very quarter.

The trend: Foundry economics are consolidating around TSMC, whose leading-edge position lets it hold pricing through cycles that break its memory and commodity-chip peers.