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Chronicles

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Sources: Coinbase was valued at $100B+ in private share sale ahead of direct listing; docs reveal $141M net income on $691M revenue for first 9 months of 2020

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase was valued at just over $100 billion in a recent private market share sale ahead of its upcoming public listing …

Axios Dan Primack

Context & Ripple Effects

The arc here is a hundredfold repricing in under four years: Coinbase sought a round at just over $1B in mid-2017, was valued north of $8B when it began exploring a direct listing in July 2020, and now changes hands privately at $100B+. The leaked nine-month 2020 figures — $141M net income on $691M revenue — matter because they attach hard profitability numbers to what had been pure valuation chatter.

First-order effects

  • Prospective buyers in the April 14 direct listing now have an actual P&L to underwrite rather than a narrative, days after shares traded privately at $350 (~$90B) — so the $100B+ print sets the anchor the reference price will be judged against.

Second-order effects

  • Nasdaq's eventual $250 reference price ($65.3B) versus the $100B+ private print creates a visible gap between private and public pricing that other pre-IPO crypto firms must navigate when picking their own listing routes.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, crypto exchange valuations become a levered index of trading volumes themselves — profitable in bull quarters like the estimated $730M-$800M Q1, exposed in drawdowns — making exchange equity a new proxy asset for the crypto cycle.

The trend: Crypto infrastructure firms are reaching public markets with private-market valuations set by momentum-driven share sales, forcing exchanges like Nasdaq to referee the gap with deliberately conservative reference prices.

Discussion

  • @michaelbatnick Michael Batnick on x
    Coinbase at $100 B seems ludicrously undervalued compared to a LeBron James GIF selling for $100 K. https://www.axios.com/...
  • @ellliotttb @ellliotttb on x
    If coinbase investors had put all their money in bitcoin it would be worth $10T https://twitter.com/...
  • @danprimack Dan Primack on x
    Coinbase is now valued above $100 billion, per a secondary sale organized by the company. $141m profit on $691m revenue for first nine months of 2020. (wrong link before) https://www.axios.com/...
  • @levie Aaron Levie on x
    The coinbase IPO will be very compelling because public market investors can get near-direct crypto exposure in a way that was extremely limited previously.
  • @abnormalreturns Tadas Viskanta on x
    A change of pace...a solidly profitable startup going public. https://twitter.com/...
  • @mayazi @mayazi on x
    I don't know if Coinbase trading on NASDAQ's private market is a punch to the gut of future “democratizing finance” talking points or a promo for the launch of a “blockchain powered R3/symbiont trading system” with a Coinbase token. I bet it's the former https://www.axios.com/...
  • @c2prods Come on x
    Staggering valuation when you compare to the revenue. https://twitter.com/...