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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Nasdaq sets Coinbase's reference price at $250 per share for its direct listing, which would value the cryptocurrency exchange at $65.3B

- Coinbase is set to become the first major crypto business to go public in the U.S. and, should it reach a $100 billion market cap …

CNBC Ari Levy

Context & Ripple Effects

Coinbase had moved from an explored direct-listing plan when it was valued above $8B to private secondary-market valuations of roughly $90B and more than $100B. Nasdaq's reference price supplies a formal public-market starting point below those private indications.

The next day's close above the reference price after a higher opening shows why the reference price matters: it is a benchmark for initial trading, not a ceiling on market valuation.

First-order effects

  • Nasdaq gives Coinbase shareholders and prospective public investors a $250-per-share valuation reference, implying $65.3B before trading begins.
  • The reference price places Coinbase's initial public benchmark below the roughly $350 private-share trading level reported the prior month, sharpening the distinction between private indications and a public-market opening point.

Second-order effects

  • Coinbase investors gain an immediate public benchmark against which to reassess the $90B-to-$100B-plus private valuations reported ahead of the listing.
  • Nasdaq's handling of Coinbase establishes a visible reference-price process for later direct listings, including Amplitude's subsequently announced listing.

Third-order effects

  • As a major U.S. crypto business enters public trading, the sector gains a listed-company valuation reference rather than relying solely on private secondary sales.
  • If more crypto businesses follow Coinbase into public markets, price discovery will increasingly shift from episodic private transactions to continuously traded public shares.

The trend: Crypto businesses are moving from private-market valuation signals toward public-market price discovery through listings.

Discussion

  • @brian_armstrong Brian Armstrong on x
    Tomorrow on @coinbase's public listing day, @pmarca will be interviewing myself, Coinbase co-founder @FEhrsam, and Coinbase President & COO @emiliemc on YouTube Live. What questions would you like @pmarca to ask us? Thx!
  • @cnbctechcheck TechCheck on x
    Coinbase will have a hard time finding competitors, says @dickc. The cryptocurrency exchange is set to go public Wednesday. “Cybersecurity and banking is a ridiculous investment and crypto is an even bigger investment.” https://www.cnbc.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @schuldensuehner Holger Zschaepitz on x
    #Coinbase gets reference price of $250 from Nasdaq ahead of Wed's direct listing, which would value comp ~$65bn on diluted basis. Reference price seems ridiculously low as Coinbase shares changed hands at $350/share in early March. So odds are high Coinbase doubles on opening day…
  • @ericbolling @ericbolling on x
    Big IPO tomorrow: Coinbase the cryptocurrency mega-exchange goes public in a cool “direct listing” under the symbol COIN. No investment banks 👊, the reference price is $250. Watch this one folks- should be worth $100b soon: $coin #Bitcoin @elonmusk https://www.cnbc.com/...
  • @arca @arca on x
    “While @coinbase needs #Bitcoin a lot more than Bitcoin needs Coinbase, it's not surprising to see #BTC run ahead of what will likely be the most talked about event on #WallStreet tomorrow.” @arca CIO @jdorman81 - https://www.forbes.com/... #DigitalAssets #IPO
  • @quicktake Bloomberg Quicktake on x
    “To me, $100,000 is a matter of time.” Bloomberg Intelligence's @mikemcglone11 joined @TimSteno and @kgreifeld to break down Bitcoin's record surge and discuss just how high the token could go in 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @documentingbtc @documentingbtc on x
    #Bitcoin is now worth more than Brazil's entire stock market. https://twitter.com/...
  • @matthew_d_green Matthew Green on x
    Everyone is like “why cryptocurrency” but the answer is that cryptocurrency is what happens when you create a gigantic technical vaccuum. Literally anything that can survive the ambient conditions will fill it.
  • @thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
    Bitcoin is having a morning https://www.bloomberg.com/... https://twitter.com/...