The ad industry is bracing for Apple's privacy-focused IDFA changes and attempting to adapt with new targeting methods

CNBC 2020-12-16 Megan Graham

Context & Ripple Effects

The industry has had months to prepare since Apple announced that its Identifier for Advertisers would become opt-in with iOS 14, a change Forbes flagged in June 2020 as a privacy win for users and a direct hit to how mobile ad spend is tracked. The asymmetry was visible early too: Apple Advertising appears to run on by default in iOS 14 while rival ad networks and advertisers have to ask each user for permission to track.

This piece captures the adaptation phase rather than the announcement itself — advertisers are experimenting with new targeting methods to survive the loss of device-level identifiers. The stakes extend beyond mobile: Google later quantified the damage, detailing how the changes reduce visibility into app install metrics and distort bidding on some ads, and the broader dismantling of personal-data-based advertising is now forcing publishers, ad-tech firms, and small companies alike to rewrite their revenue plans.

First-order effects

Mobile advertisers and app developers immediately lose reliable attribution and measurement on iOS users who decline tracking permission, undermining the install-campaign economics they built on the IDFA.

Second-order effects

Google is forced to publicly quantify the fallout — reduced install-metric visibility and impaired bidding on some ads — signaling that even the largest ad platforms must re-engineer buying systems around consent rather than device IDs.

Third-order effects

If the pattern holds, digital advertising structurally splits into a consented first-party tier and a degraded third-party tier, accelerating the revenue-plan overhauls already underway at publishers and small firms dependent on personal-data targeting.

The trend: Platform-enforced consent is replacing device-level identifiers as the organizing principle of mobile ad targeting, with Apple's opt-in switch setting the template the wider personal-data ad economy must follow.

Discussion

@msitarzewski Michael Sitarzewski on x
Here we go. Thank you @apple for taking my privacy seriously. 🙏🙌🏻👊 🏻🤗🎉 https://www.cnbc.com/... #privacy #permission
@max_mead Max Mead on x
Good read about the tsunami that's about to hit the mobile app ecosystem, which has been largely reliant on ad revenue: “would [consumers] be willing to shell out money to use every app they use? And if not, will those apps survive?” https://www.cnbc.com/...
@disruptivedean Dean Bubley on x
This is excellent news. There's a simple way for #adtech spam companies to get people to opt-in to privacy sucking cookies: pay them. Want to follow me around the Internet? Better be offering $$$$. I want 50% of the ad budget, in cash. https://twitter.com/...
@aparanjape Amit Paranjape on x
Apple's change will essentially take a privacy option that was previously buried deep in users' phones and put it front and center when they open an app. It's expected to drastically impact the ability of advertisers to target ads the way they have been. https://www.cnbc.com/...
@aparanjape Amit Paranjape on x
Apple's seismic change to the mobile ad industry draws near Apple is making a huge change to settings on users' iPhones in the name of privacy, and it will fundamentally change mobile advertising on those devices. https://www.cnbc.com/...
@megancgraham Meg Graham on x
Apple is making a huge change to settings on iPhones in the name of privacy. Here's what it means for the mobile ad industry: https://www.cnbc.com/...
@mattrosoff Matt Rosoff on x
Apple “dumped 10,000 puzzle pieces on the floor and walked away” says one industry participant on Apple's upcoming change to how it displays privacy warnings in apps: https://www.cnbc.com/...

Chronicles