Kuo: iPhone shipments could decline by 25-30% if Apple is forced to remove WeChat from its App Stores around the world under Trump's EO
In a worst-case scenario, Apple's annual global iPhone shipments could decline by 25-30% if it is forced to remove WeChat from its App Stores around the world …
MacRumorsEric Slivka
Context & Ripple Effects
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo now quantifies the worst case flagged in this week's escalating coverage: if Trump's executive order forces WeChat out of Apple's App Stores worldwide, annual iPhone shipments fall 25–30%. That builds on the prior warnings that WeChat is a communication and transaction cornerstone in China and that Apple's exposure runs across everything from manufacturing to sales.
The stakes are historical, not hypothetical: Apple already leaned on WeChat once before, when it reportedly told the app to disable its tip function so Apple could claim its usual 30% cut of what it deemed in-app purchases. And Kuo has form for China-shock downgrades — he cut his Q1 forecast by 10% in February after COVID-19 closures in China.
First-order effects
If the ban is enforced globally, Chinese iPhone buyers face choosing between their handset and the app they use to communicate and pay — Kuo's 25–30% shipment decline reflects them defecting rather than dropping WeChat.
Apple would be removing one of its most-used apps from its own storefronts, undercutting the App Store's value proposition in its largest manufacturing and sales market at once.
Second-order effects
Chinese Android vendors gain the default alternative: users keeping WeChat migrate to phones that still run it, shifting share in the world's biggest smartphone market away from Apple.
Apple's supply chain feels the volume drop too — the same China-centric manufacturing base that made the February COVID cut so sharp amplifies a demand shock with a production one.
Third-order effects
App stores become geopolitical chokepoints: a US executive order can dictate which apps appear on platforms worldwide, forcing companies like Apple to choose between home-market law and their largest overseas user base.
The pattern points toward decoupled software ecosystems — separate Chinese and Western app spheres where device makers compete partly on which side's apps they can carry.
The trend: US-China tech escalation is turning smartphone demand and app-store control into bargaining chips, with analysts like Kuo pricing political risk directly into hardware forecasts.
What does Trump's ban on Wechat mean: For Apple it would be all iPhone sale in China will go to 0 because no one in China will buy a Wechatless phone. Apple sell almost twice number of iPhones in China than in US https://twitter.com/...
As @benthompson points out, Apple is going to find a way for people to sideload this (perhaps there will be an official Apple app page in China that people will be directed to or made aware of). Apple knows this is a huge threat to its business, and will have wargamed it. https:/…
An informal online survey in #China asks if people cannot use #Wechat on Apple phones, will they switch phone to delete Wechat? Overwhelmingly people choose to switch phones. President Trump is punishing Apple by arm-twisting Wechat. @realDonaldTrump https://twitter.com/...
A big question will be whether app sales within China also get affected. iOS and Android are the dominant platforms, which means Apple and Google could stop offering the WeChat app and its updates within China (this is more of a problem for iPhones given the App store model).
100% true. This ban is the worst news that Apple has faced in the last years. Not having access to WeChat removes not only the most popular chat program in China (and for Chinese diaspora) but also the most popular mobile payments platform in the country. https://9to5mac.com/...
If I'm reading this EO correctly, it obliges Apple to remove WeChat from the Chinese App Store, which would effectively kill the company's phone business in China. China represents a little under 15% of Apple's global revenue https://www.whitehouse.gov/...
I also read it as being much broader than just WeChat, it would also remove QQ and a bunch of other services for iOS? Suspect Tim Apple will be lobbying hard on this one. https://twitter.com/...
Now that Trump is trying to ban TikTok by Executive Order, young people everywhere should use the app to spread the message: Register to vote, and defeat Trump in November.
WaPo: Peter Navarro and Steve Mnuchin had a “knockdown, drag-out” shouting match over TikTok in front of Donald Trump last week in the Oval Office. Navarro urged a total ban on TikTok, calling Mnuchin soft on China for advocating a sale to a U.S. company. https://www.washingtonpo…
Trump's ban might not only force Apple to remove WeChat from its App Store — which would destroy Apple's Chinese smartphone business — it could existentially change how Apple is able to build and sell new products in the future. https://www.theverge.com/...
1/ This is a smart article. @Apple is in many ways America's most influential company, and not just financially. But it is stunningly dependent on China, both for manufacturing and sales. It is the likeliest major victim of the new Cold War with China. https://www.theverge.com/..…
At the end of the day, Minooch is more important to Trump than Navarro. The former is a real money guy who ties Trump to actual power, the latter is a crank If these are the two demons on Trump's shoulders, I think then this edges in favor of an amicable-ish outcome for Tok https…
“.. Navarro pushed back, demanding an outright ban of TikTok, while accusing Mnuchin of being soft on China, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity .. The treasury secretary appeared taken aback, they said” (via @washingtonpost) https://www.washingtonpost.com/ …
“Apple is caught in a trap of its own making here, thanks to its locked-down platform. A more open system.. would let users install WeChat without Apple's explicit approval.. at least millions of Chinese customers could still use their iPhones” https://www.theverge.com/...
An Oval Office shouting match over TikTok preceded an executive order that threatens the Chinese social media company's future https://www.washingtonpost.com/ ...