Kuo says Apple may not include wired EarPods in iPhone 12 box to boost AirPods sales, and raises AirPods sales estimates for 2020 from 80M to 93M units
According to the latest report from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple may not include the wired EarPods headphones in the box of the iPhone 12.
Context & Ripple Effects
Kuo's May note reads, in hindsight, as the first draft of Apple's iPhone 12 packaging strategy: a month later he reported the plan went further than dropping wired EarPods, with the charger pulled too and a new 20W adapter sold separately (earbuds and charger both cut). The stated logic — push buyers toward AirPods — underpinned his raised 2020 shipment forecast of 93 million units.
The follow-on coverage shows the strategy worked once, then mean-reverted: Counterpoint still had AirPods near half the true-wireless market in 2020, but by early 2021 Kuo was projecting shipments falling back to 78 million on rising competition, and Apple itself trimmed planned production.
First-order effects
- iPhone 12 buyers lose wired EarPods in the box, making AirPods the default purchase decision at setup and lifting Apple's per-phone accessory attach rate.
- Apple's supply chain gets the signal immediately: the raised 93-million-unit AirPods forecast implies higher component orders for 2020 than the prior 80-million baseline.
Second-order effects
- Rival true-wireless makers are handed an opening — Counterpoint's projection of Apple's share slipping from roughly 50% to 35% shows the category Apple grows fastest is also the one competitors scale into cheapest.
- A separate 20W adapter creates a second paid upgrade at point of sale, converting former box inclusions into standalone revenue lines.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, box contents become a pricing lever rather than a courtesy — but the corpus also shows the ceiling: AirPods shipments ultimately fell below even Kuo's original pre-boost 80-million estimate, with Apple cutting planned 2021 output by 25–30% (production trimmed to 75M–85M), so bundling decisions can manufacture demand spikes that competition then erodes.
- Accessory attach-rate economics look set to stay a structural part of flagship phone launches industry-wide, since Apple's move normalized shipping phones without audio gear.
The trend: Apple is converting the iPhone box into an accessories funnel, though the AirPods surge it engineered proved cyclical as rival true-wireless products closed the gap.