Survey of 979 tech experts: 49% say tech will “mostly weaken” democracy between now and 2030, 33% say it will “mostly strengthen” democracy, 18% see no change
About half predict that humans' use of technology will weaken democracy between now and 2030 due to the speed …
Pew Research Center
Context & Ripple Effects
This is the third time Pew has put a version of this question to its expert panels, and the pessimism is compounding rather than resolving. A 2017 survey of 1,116 technologists already found most experts blaming the political and social divide for online misinformation, with 51% expecting no improvement over the following decade. Three days after this new poll, Pew reported that 74% of Americans have little or no confidence in Facebook and Google preventing platform misuse ahead of the 2020 election — so expert and public sentiment were moving in lockstep.
First-order effects
The 49%-plurality among 979 experts hands platforms like Facebook and Google a documented legitimacy problem at the exact moment their own users doubt them on election integrity.
The 33% minority who expect technology to strengthen democracy are now arguing against both the expert consensus and the public mood, isolating the optimistic case.
Survey publishers like Pew become agenda-setters: each successive pessimistic reading gives policymakers a citable baseline for justifying platform oversight and election-security rules.
Third-order effects
If the pattern holds across Pew's expert series — 2017, 2020, and the later 2035-outlook panel — 'technology weakens democracy' hardens from a contested claim into the default assumption underpinning tech policy debates.
A durable trust deficit between platforms and both experts and the public points toward governance shifting away from voluntary self-regulation toward externally imposed rules, since neither constituency believes self-policing works.
The trend: Expert opinion on technology's civic impact has shifted from divided to durably pessimistic, making democratic-weakening the baseline scenario that future regulation is written against.
Many experts see technology disrupting democracy over the next decade. Core themes of concern include their belief that technology will: - Empower the powerful - Diminish the governed - Be weaponized in info-wars - Sow confusion - Weaken journalism https://www.pewresearch.org/ ..…
“The people who work in Silicon Valley once thought they were doing something more meaningful than building profit-making machines. That's where the midlife crisis lies: What is tech, as an industry, all about anymore?” https://www.theatlantic.com/ ...
Tech experts pessimistic “There is simply no reason to believe technology can strengthen democracy. Western democracies are grappling with the power from the increased concentration of financial capital and its response in the form of the rise of populism” https://www.theatlantic…
TBF, I'm on team @schradie on this one: Political debate online has favored the well resourced, who have more capacity to take advantage of technology. As a result, they win out over grassroots movements. Don't we see this kind of consolidation in online news as well? https://twi…
“Digital media overwhelm people with a sense of the complexity of the world and undermine trust in institutions, governments and leaders. It is difficult to envision a positive outcome.” Tech experts turn from cheerleaderism to pessimism: https://www.theatlantic.com/ ...
We and @ImagineInternet canvassed technology experts to gather their views of the impact of technology on democracy over the next decade. 979 innovators, developers, business & policy leaders, researchers & activists responded. Their 💭➡️ https://www.pewresearch.org/ ...
“There is simply no reason to believe that technology can strengthen democracy.” “It is difficult even to envision a positive outcome.” Tech experts are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the future of their industry, @alexismadrigal reports: https://www.theatlantic.com/ ...
Excellent @alexismadrigal piece for @TheAtlantic on the new @pewinternet @ImagineInternet canvassing in which tech experts express worries over the future of tech and democracy. https://www.theatlantic.com/ ....
“Many of the tropes of middle age have been acted out by the most visible tech titans. And now the companies they built are also showing signs of entering an existential crisis.” https://www.theatlantic.com/ ...
Pew's latest survey of tech experts has some staggeringly pessimistic quotes. This @ginasue is probably the best summary. https://www.theatlantic.com/ ... https://twitter.com/...
“Technology empowers the already powerful; technology ‘diminishes’ the governed; information technology is easily weaponized; digital illiteracy and the collapse of journalism create an ill-informed public. Add it up and not only...https://www.linkedin.com/ ... https://www.theatl…
That's flat wrong. Of course technology can strengthen democracy, and in so many ways it has. The public sphere is now accessible to all — witness #BlackLivesMatter, #MeToo, #NeverAgain. The picture is decidedly mixed — and we should not over-attribute cultural problems to tech. …
“The wealth the industry generated will continue to fuel massive philanthropy, gaudy displays of riches, and moonshots, but no one can say whether any of that will be enough to stop the damage tech companies have done.” #tech https://www.theatlantic.com/ ... via @alexismadrigal
I rarely disagree w/@ginasue who is one of the smartest and most level-headed people I know, but I'm going to stick my neck out and say I'm not convinced there are “no reasons to believe that technology can strengthen democracy” - in fact I'd suggest it does in some ways https://…
Tech will weaken democracy, says the @pewresearch report. Many experts, including CIGI's @setlinger, say they worry about the future of democracy because of the power of major technology companies & their role in democratic discourse, as well as the way they exploit user data. ht…
Many experts see technology as a force for good for democracy over the next decade. Core themes on the hopeful side include their belief that technology will: - Evolve individuals - Improve systems - Work for good - Assist with reforms https://www.pewresearch.org/ ... https://twi…
The @PewResearch Center asked folks what impact digital disruption will have on democracy in 2030: https://www.pewresearch.org/ ... Perspectives differ! But here's what I told them: https://twitter.com/...