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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Alphabet Q4: revenue of $46B, up 17% YoY; revenue from Other Bets, which includes Verily, Fiber, others, rose to $172M as losses jumped to $2B from $1.3B YoY

Abner Li / 9to5Google :

9to5Google Abner Li

Context & Ripple Effects

This Q4 2019 print is an early data point in what becomes a recurring quarterly disclosure: Alphabet's October 2019 report had already shown Other Bets losses climbing to $941M, and subsequent coverage tracks the segment's losses rising again through 2021 before moderating. What changed here is scale — the quarterly loss hit $2B, up from $1.3B a year earlier.

The significance is the asymmetry: Alphabet's core business generated $46B in quarterly revenue, up 17% YoY, while Verily, Fiber, and the rest of Other Bets brought in $172M. The segment is small enough to be a rounding error and expensive enough to be a standing question for investors.

First-order effects

  • Alphabet's advertising engine is now visibly bankrolling Other Bets at a loss more than eleven times the segment's $172M quarterly revenue, with Verily and Fiber named as the primary revenue contributors.
  • Waymo, Verily, and Fiber each face heightened justification pressure: their parent just reported the segment's largest quarterly loss to date, $2B, without a proportional revenue step-up.

Second-order effects

  • The widening gap turns Other Bets into a fixed line item Alphabet must defend every quarter — later coverage shows losses climbing further to $1.29B by Q3 2021 on barely higher revenue, keeping investor scrutiny on whether individual bets can scale or need outside capital.
  • Sustained billion-dollar quarterly burn raises the bar for internal capital allocation: any bet that cannot show a path off the subsidy competes directly with buybacks and core investment for the same ad-funded pool.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds — revenue plateauing near $200M per quarter against losses that keep setting records — Alphabet faces a structural choice among indefinite ads-funded subsidy, spinning ventures out, or pruning the portfolio, rather than treating Other Bets as open-ended experimentation.

The trend: Alphabet's Other Bets are hardening into a permanent, ads-funded R&D arm whose operating losses grow faster than a roughly flat sub-$250M quarterly revenue base.

Discussion

  • @atbwebb Alex Webb on x
    So basically YouTube was Schrödinger's cat. As long as Google didn't break out the earnings, they could let investors believe the business was going well. https://www.bloomberg.com/...
  • @thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
    Google's cloud business is a fraction of that of Amazon's and Microsoft's, 53% YOY revenue growth is pretty sweet https://www.bloomberg.com/... https://twitter.com/...