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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Microsoft Q2: revenue of $36.9B, up 14% YoY, net income of $11.6B, up 38% YoY; Commercial Cloud revenue up 39% YoY to $12.5B; Office 365 Consumer subs hit 37.2M

Microsoft Commercial Strength Powers Second Quarter Results REDMOND, Wash. — January 29, 2020 — Microsoft Corp. today announced …

Microsoft

Context & Ripple Effects

This January 2020 report is the early marker in the arc the related coverage traces: a $36.9B quarter where the Intelligent Cloud segment that appears a year later is still reported as 'Commercial Cloud,' growing 39% to $12.5B while total revenue grows 14%. The gap between those two numbers is the story — the subscription businesses are outgrowing the company around them.

The consumer side matters less for scale than for structure: 37.2M Office 365 Consumer subscribers convert a one-time license buyer into a recurring bill. Five years on, the same fiscal Q2 lands at $69.6B in revenue, with the cloud line rebranded as Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services — same engine, larger flywheel.

First-order effects

  • Microsoft's own P&L shows the operating leverage directly: net income up 38% on 14% revenue growth means the Commercial Cloud mix shift, not volume, is doing the margin work this quarter.
  • The 37.2M Office 365 Consumer subscriber count gives Microsoft a metered consumer base it can reprice annually, replacing upgrade-cycle revenue with predictable subscription cash flow.

Second-order effects

  • With cloud subscriptions compounding faster than the rest of the company, Microsoft's capital allocation tilts toward datacenter capacity and cloud R&D, squeezing investment in legacy licensed-product lines whose growth rates now lag the corporate average.
  • A recurring-revenue base growing at 39% makes Microsoft's forward guidance more forecastable, which historically supports premium valuation multiples relative to license-era software peers.

Third-order effects

  • The reporting structure itself evolves with the business — Commercial Cloud becomes Intelligent Cloud becomes Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services across the coverage window — signaling that Microsoft treats segment definitions as marketing instruments for whichever subscription line is the growth story.
  • If the pattern in the coverage holds, quarterly revenue roughly doubles between 2020 and 2025 while growth rates compress from 14% toward low double digits — the classic maturation curve of a company whose growth engine has shifted from selling software to renting it.

The trend: Microsoft's quarterly reports chart the industry-wide pivot from licensed software to metered cloud subscriptions, with each year's segment renaming marking the next stage of that monetization shift.

Discussion

  • @zhugeex Daniel Ahmad on x
    The third party game mentioned above is Fortnite. In that spending in Fortnite is down YoY, to the point that it had a material impact on earnings. Total gaming revenue in 2019 was $10.3 billion, down from $11.5 billion in 2018. https://twitter.com/...
  • @tomwarren Tom Warren on x
    Microsoft was going to kill its Surface hardware in 2019. That's what Canalys, Lenovo, and Dell all thought 🙄Microsoft just finished 2019 with Surface as nearly a $2 billion business https://www.theverge.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @tomwarren Tom Warren on x
    Microsoft's @satyanadella reveals more about Xbox: - “hundreds of thousands of people participating in initial trials” of xCloud 🎮 - “Xbox Game Pass subscribers more than doubled this quarter.” 🕹️ - Xbox Live monthly active users record Details: https://www.theverge.com/... https…
  • @seamusblackley Seamus Blackley on x
    What about HoloLens? https://twitter.com/...
  • @benjisales Benji-Sales on x
    Ok here is some pretty incredible news actually coming out of Microsoft's Q2 earning Game Pass subscribers more than DOUBLED this quarter alone That is....frankly incredible growth https://www.theverge.com/...
  • @fxshaw Frank X. Shaw on x
    @satyanadella @Azure Azure Synapse is our new limitless analytics service that brings together big data analytics and data warehousing with unmatched performance, scale and security
  • @fxshaw Frank X. Shaw on x
    @satyanadella @Azure We're seeing rapid adoption across our AI services: • 6B transactions each month on Azure Cognitive Services • 7B documents processed daily with Azure Cognitive Search • 2B predictions a month using Azure Machine Learning • 3,500 new bots/week created with Az…
  • @zhugeex Daniel Ahmad on x
    Not too unexpected at this point in the lifecycle, although the double digit decline in content and services spending is fairly notable. General takeaway is that subscriptions continue to grow (Game Pass / XBLG) whilst hardware declines. Full game / DLC digital sales are stable.
  • @markhachman Mark Hachman on x
    More Microsoft details: Surface revenue was $1.976 billion, which alllllmost makes Microsoft Surface a $2 billion/quarter operation. Surface revenue was $1.860B a year ago, good for a 6.2% increase.
  • @zhugeex Daniel Ahmad on x
    Microsoft reported that gaming revenue was down 21% YoY for the quarter ending Dec 31st 2019. Both Hardware and Software/Services were down. Software and Services down 11% YoY. Subscriptions partially offset the decline on full game downloads / DLC / Add on Content. https://twitt…
  • @bdsams Brad Sams on x
    Azure revenue growth of 62%
  • @bdsams Brad Sams on x
    Xbox content and services revenue decreased 11% (down 9% in constant currency)
  • @daniel_rubino Daniel Rubino on x
    Microsoft pulls in nearly $2 billion in Surface revenue - up 6% YoY. That's also a new record for them. https://www.windowscentral.com/ ...
  • @mattrosoff Matt Rosoff on x
    I have always admired Microsoft $MSFT for putting out its full 10Q report almost immediately after its earnings release. Much more detailed. Most companies delay at least a day, some a week or more! https://www.sec.gov/...
  • @epro Emil Protalinski on x
    $MSFT Azure revenue growth - Q1 2018: 90% - Q2 2018: 98% - Q3 2018: 93% - Q4 2018: 89% - Q1 2019: 76% - Q2 2019: 76% - Q3 2019: 73% - Q4 2019: 64% - Q1 2020: 59% - Q2 2020: 62%
  • @tomwarren Tom Warren on x
    Microsoft's Q2 2020 earnings are out. Surface is nearly a $2 billion business Windows did well thx to Windows 7 end of life Cloud and Office are v.strong Gaming is down big, and Microsoft blames Fortnite Details here: https://www.theverge.com/... https://twitter.com/...
  • @nextgenplayer Hunter on x
    Xbox highlights from Microsoft's Q2 2020 earnings: ✅21% decline in revenue (down $905 million) ✅Content & Services revenue down 11% ✅Hardware revenue down 43% https://twitter.com/...
  • @pearltearizzy @pearltearizzy on x
    Xbox One sucked because they had the most embarrassing PR fuckup in the history of consoles by making Xbox One always online, couldn't able to play used games and bundled with Kinect. Yeah sure they decided not to do that in the last minute but the damage had already been done. h…
  • @nextgenplayer Hunter on x
    Xbox gaming revenue drops 21% in Microsoft's Q2 2020 earnings report: https://www.windowscentral.com/ ...
  • @dr_1up @dr_1up on x
    Don't we all blame Fortnite https://twitter.com/...
  • @alexdnz Alex on x
    MS as they enter next gen with zero exclusives for their new console and make no money: Its all that dang fortnites fault https://twitter.com/...
  • @patrickmoorhead @patrickmoorhead on x
    Microsoft hammers out strong Q2: • 14% revenue growth, 35% OPINC, 38% NI • 27% Office 365 comm. • 24% LinkedIn • 42% Dynamics 365 • 62% Azure • 25% Windows commercial cloud & svcs •6% Surface increase, expected as it refreshed its line $MSFT https://www.microsoft.com/...
  • @epro Emil Protalinski on x
    $MSFT Q2 2020: - Azure up 62% - Surface up 6% - LinkedIn up 24% - Windows Commercial up 25% - Gaming down 21% https://venturebeat.com/...