Some analysts say Alphabet could double in value to become a $2T company in the near future, as the total market cap of FAANGs rose by $1.3T over the past year
As Alphabet becomes the latest firm to achieve a 13-figure market cap, analysts still forecast years of growth ahead
Context & Ripple Effects
In January 2020, analysts argued Alphabet could double to a $2T market cap 'in the near future' as the FAANGs collectively added $1.3T over the prior year — a call that read as aggressive at the time. The $2T milestone actually arrived in April 2024, more than four years later, after a 10% single-day jump.
What followed outran the original forecast entirely: Alphabet became the fourth company past $3T in September 2025, then hit $4T in January 2026 — still fourth in line behind Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple at every tier.
First-order effects
- The 2020 doubling thesis was validated but on a slower clock than 'near future' implied — the first trillion of gains took four-plus years, while the next two trillions came within roughly 21 months of each other.
Second-order effects
- Alphabet's climb is now levered to AI infrastructure economics rather than ad-cycle fundamentals alone: its Intersect acquisition extends an AI data center buildout sitting atop roughly $3T in off-balance-sheet commitments across nine top tech firms — far exceeding their reported $600B capex.
Third-order effects
- Earnings quality becomes the structural question: with Alphabet's Q2 other income — mostly investment gains — accounting for 71% of profits, the $4T valuation increasingly prices balance-sheet appreciation alongside operating businesses, raising the stakes if mark-to-market gains reverse.
The trend: Mega-cap tech valuations are compounding through successive trillion-dollar tiers on AI infrastructure spending, with Alphabet consistently the fourth entrant behind Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple.
Related: AI infrastructure supercycle · Alphabet · Alphabet closes above $2T market cap · Alphabet reaches $3T market cap · Alphabet hits $4T market cap
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Discussion
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@babylonsingular
Babylon Singularity
on x
We are watching a historic consolidation of wealth and power. Big Tech is worth over $5 trillion now that Alphabet has joined the four comma club https://www.cnbc.com/...
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@danpriceseattle
Dan Price
on x
5 big tech companies (Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook) were worth $1.7 trillion five yeas ago. Now they're worth $5.2 trillion. In that span they went from making up 11% of the stock market to 17%. Where is this heading? https://www.cnbc.com/...
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@neilcybart
Neil Cybart
on x
5 / Instead, these developers / companies are ultimately trying to decouple the App Store from Apple's platform. I discussed this in detail in the Above Avalon daily update (for @AboveAvalonPlus) published when Spotify declared war against Apple. https://www.aboveavalon.com/ ... …
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@neilcybart
Neil Cybart
on x
2 / The highlighted section in this screenshot raised an eyebrow for me. Complaining about the App Store “tax” while at the same time not actually paying Apple anything for distributing your app / service is an interesting position to hold. https://www.cnbc.com/... pic.twitter.c…
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@kifleswing
Kif
on x
Apple comment on the House Antitrust Subcommittee hearing pic.twitter.com/YMxADcyKAl
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@hshaban
Hamza Shaban
on x
Smaller rivals to Apple, Amazon, Facebook & Google challenge the idea of American tech as a competitive industry, making the case that the tech giants abuse their platform power and marshal their vast resources to copy products & undermine consumer choice https://www.washingtonpo…
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@rasmus_kleis
Rasmus Kleis Nielsen
on x
“Please Stop Big Tech, Small Rivals Tell Lawmakers ... top executives of Sonos, PopSockets, Basecamp and Tile testified that the biggest technology companies hindered their businesses” @ceciliakang reports https://www.nytimes.com/...
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@andres_cortes10
Andres
on x
big tech 2020 = big oil late 1800s https://twitter.com/...
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@neilcybart
Neil Cybart
on x
4 / The focus on Apple's App Store revenue share level ends up being a red herring. The developers / companies most vocal about the App Store “tax” don't want to pay Apple anything beyond a nominal fee for handling payment transactions.
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@neilcybart
Neil Cybart
on x
3 / Is the position here that if Apple's revenue share was lower, say 10%, a portion of the 85% of developers currently paying nothing to Apple would now be willing to go through the App Store for payment? That's a dubious argument.
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@neilcybart
Neil Cybart
on x
1 / There has been much talk about Apple's “App Store tax” (aka Apple's App Store revenue share) being unfair and anticompetitive. Unfortunately, the nuance found with the topic is almost always glossed over.
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@dhh
@dhh
on x
Honored to be invited to testify in front of the House Antitrust Subcommittee on Big Tech's tightening monopoly grip on the internet. It's a public hearing at the University of Colorado Law School in Boulder on Friday, Jan 10 at 10am. Bring your 🍿😄🤘 https://twitter.com/...
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
The Find My app cannot be deleted from iOS, but Tile can, says Daru. Find My's settings are enabled by one switch during installation, but Tile's are buried, and iOS 13 reminds users to turn it off. Tile is also not allowed to use the new UWB radios in the iPhone 11.
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
“Apple is acting as a gatekeeper to applications and technologies in a way that favors its own interests,” says Daru. “You might be the best soccer team, but you're playing against a team that owns the stadium, the ball, and the league, and can change the rules when it wants.”
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@joemccann
Joe McCann
on x
Timestamp it: Google, Amazon, and/or Facebook will be the targets of antitrust lawsuits from the U.S. government irrespective of whom wins the 2020 election. https://www.reuters.com/...
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@repaircoalition
@repaircoalition
on x
Anti-trust hearings today against Apple and Google. Hope tying agreements blocking repair come up too. #righttorepair. https://www.reuters.com/...
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
@dhh Next, Kirsten Daru, vp and general counsel of Tile. “Last april reports came out that Apple would be coming out with a competing device... shortly thereafter they told us we wouldn't be in their stores anymore.”
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
@dhh Now @dhh is going in on Apple and the App Store. “Every application maker using the App Store lives in fear that their application is denied.... all it takes is being assigned the wrong clerk... then you'll be stuck in an appeals process that would make Kafka blush.”
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
@Patrick_Spence Next, @dhh to talk about Google. “Their monopoly on internet search is near total, and their bribes to companies like Apple ensures no competition will emerge.”
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
Google doesn't enforce trademarks in ads, except for its own products, says @dhh. “Then enforcement is swift.”
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
@Patrick_Spence Spence wants to focus on three trends: - Big tech cos using power in one market to crush other markets, using voice assistants and smart speakers as an example - Dominant companies exploiting partners to tilt playing field to their own products - Bigcos disregardi…
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@reckless
Nilay Patel
on x
@Patrick_Spence Next up, PopSockets CEO David Barnett, who's talking about Amazon selling counterfeits and “bullying” his company.
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@tonyromm
Tony Romm
on x
This will come to light on Friday in Boulder, the latest in a series of hearings convened by lawmakers on the House's top antitrust panel. It is sure to influence their probe into the state of fed competition laws — and perhaps inform open investigations as well https://twitter.c…
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@kantrowitz
Alex Kantrowitz
on x
As goes PopSockets so goes the world https://twitter.com/...
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@tonyromm
Tony Romm
on x
NEWS: PopSockets, Tile, Sonos and Basecamp will ask Congress to help stop Big Tech bullying at a hearing today in Boulder. I spoke with the execs — and the cmte's chairman — ahead of the hearing to learn more about their calls to rein in tech giants https://www.washingtonpost.com…
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@tonyromm
Tony Romm
on x
NEWS: PopSockets says Amazon cost them millions. Tile says Apple iOS changes gave its tool a disadvantage. Sonos and Basecamp say Google acts like a monopoly. All four will testify at a congressional hearing today in Boulder, Colo., and I spoke w/the execs https://www.washingtonp…
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@tonyromm
Tony Romm
on x
SCOOP: PopSockets says it lost millions due to row with Amazon. Tile is still warring with Apple after it unveiled competing tool. Basecamp and Sonos say Google is killing innovation. I spoke with each company ahead of their testimony to Congress https://www.washingtonpost.com/ .…