Kuo: iPhone XS Max far outselling iPhone XS, with 256GB most popular, 512GB is subject to shortages; Apple Watch Series 4 demand is “much better than expected”
In a research note obtained by MacRumors today, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has provided launch-weekend takeaways for the iPhone XS …
Context & Ripple Effects
Days after Apple unveiled the 5.8-inch Xs and 6.5-inch Xs Max, Ming-Chi Kuo's launch-weekend note gives the first read on which configuration buyers actually want — and it is the bigger, pricier one. The finding extends a pattern already visible in prior launches: Slice Intelligence found the iPhone 7 Plus outsold the 7 in its first 48 hours back in 2016.
The 512GB shortage is the operational wrinkle: demand is concentrating in the top storage tier faster than supply allows, while the 256GB sits in the sweet spot. Separately, Kuo flags Apple Watch Series 4 demand as much better than expected, meaning two product lines entered the holiday quarter hotter than Apple's own planning assumed.
First-order effects
- Apple's assembly and component orders skew toward the XS Max and the 256GB tier, while 512GB units ship constrained — buyers wanting maximum storage face wait times rather than shelf stock.
- Apple Watch Series 4 moves from cautious build plans to a demand-driven ramp, since Kuo's 'much better than expected' read forces a supply-chain catch-up within weeks of launch.
Second-order effects
- Suppliers feeding the 512GB configuration — high-density NAND among them — see allocation pressure concentrated in one SKU, while the mix shift toward Max and 256GB lifts average selling price per unit without any list-price change.
- The strong Series 4 signal pulls watch-component vendors into an unplanned ramp, competing for capacity at the same moment iPhone builds are being rebalanced toward the Max.
Third-order effects
- If large-screen preference keeps compounding, the biggest iPhone becomes the volume anchor rather than the niche — a trajectory later confirmed by [[a:843579|Omdia's finding that the iPhone 14 Pro Max was the single most-shipped phone model worldwide in H1 2023]].
- Kuo's launch-window reads harden into a market-moving institution: his supply-chain estimates now set expectations that later notes must beat or miss against, as when his below-consensus iPhone 14 Pro shipment estimate moved the debate in 2022.
The trend: iPhone demand keeps migrating up-stack to the largest, highest-storage models, turning the 'Max' tier into Apple's volume engine and making early supply-chain reads like Kuo's the market's first real demand signal.